Yes
No
Get Out
thats pretty much where I was going with the "no one would give a fuck"
but now its public the new owners have a vested interest in it doing well, regardless of the fact that Zuckerberg still has majority voting rights.
Interesting thing is that HE isnt cashing out much, he still retains a large proportion of the stock...maybe he actually believes the bullshit....
Contract stuff to Seraphina Amaranth.
"You give me the awful impression - I hate to have to say - of someone who hasn't read any of the arguments against your position. Ever."
while the company is overvalued, its not like zuckerberg needs to (or should) cash out. the website is still one of the most popular in the world, its still growing (albeit more slowly), they have almost hit 1 billion members, they made over 2 billion dollars last year.
if they somehow pull off the transition to mobile, there could yet be a lot more to come from fb.
After Facebook IPO, the stock came back down to a more realistic figure, and then came what everyone was worried about. A time when all the insiders would now be allowed to sell their stock, as the time period to hold that stock is now up.
P/E ratio is still insane. If you are thinking about going long into this company, please visit the casino instead, or better yet, write me a check. I will PM you with details.
As for FB being a successful business model, I'm not convinced. Sure, FB and Zynga made a whole lot of money with grind fest clickfest games for stay at home mom's and cubicle slackers like Farmville that try to suck the money right out of your wallet. Now, everyone is into the mobile market and app stores are monetizing those consumer's needs. I think FB needs to reinvent itself and come out with some sort of digital distribution platform, because I don't see it as a sustainable advertising model. People will only put up with so much of that bullshit before they stop logging in. Anyone can easily adblock all websites so what is the business justification for paying FB to advertise your business? Social networking helps the small, local business, and self-employed more than it does any company with real advertising money.
Last edited by Xiang Jiao; August 22 2012 at 05:32:51 AM.
Originally Posted by indi
You can't valuate the stock fairly till all this bullshit clears the air. All this crap came out at the right times to break the right bones. People aren't approaching the stock rationally.
That said, I own ten shares so that I wont be that grandfather telling his kids "if only I had invested" also, great conversation starter with the college crowd.
There's a sucker born every minute. The tech stock gravy train you should be telling your grandkids you missed out on was Google. Facebook has got to come down before it goes up. It will probably roll around in the teens and twenties for a long time. There is also no dividend, another disincentive to holding a stock long.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johndobo...google-at-ipo/
Originally Posted by indi
If you had sold YHOO before the dot com bubble burst, yes, but since then it's been nothing but a dog. More favorable tech dogs to own (with current annual yields):
CSCO (1.9%)
INTC (3.4%)
MSFT (2.6%)
I bought a little CSCO after years of saying I would never fall for it. Picked it up at $16. I should have bought a little more at $15, but I snoozed on that trade. These are investments. Well known and proven companies that will see a return even if they slip in the short term. In the long term, you are not so worried about your money. With tech stocks new on the scene like FB and GRPN, it's like throwing a suitcase of money into a wood chipper. I honestly don't know how those initial public investors sleep at night.
Last edited by Xiang Jiao; August 22 2012 at 10:56:16 PM.
Originally Posted by indi
Depends if they are the ones who got while the getting is good or bought in to the hype I guess. Comparing companies like Cisco, Intel, or Microsoft to facebook and groupon is flawed though. The sources of revenue are fundamentally and exclusively different to such a degree that you are trying to compare apples to beach sand.
I was actually contrasting them, and of course it depends on when you buy in. I'm talking about investing presently, or in the recent past/near future. Does anyone really see anything in GRPN or FB that screams GO LONG? I think FB is about $10 too high. I personally don't like it at any price. I just don't see it lasting at all.
Last edited by Xiang Jiao; August 23 2012 at 05:35:35 AM.
Originally Posted by indi
I wish I could put a short on that stock with a <$10 target. I give it about 3 months before it comes true.
I am not approved to trade on margin, and nor do I wish to bet with borrowed money. That's probably the quickest way to go bankrupt. Luckily, there are inverse ETFs out there that you can by where you can virtually short certain industries, regions, and commodities. I don't know of one set up specifically to short FB, though.
http://etf.about.com/od/etfinvesting..._ETFs_List.htm
Originally Posted by indi
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