from the graun, updated results and a poll showing hollande should comfortably win
According to an Ipsos Mori poll carried out for France 24, the Socialist candidate Hollande looks set to win the next round convincingly, with 54% of those questioned intending to vote for Hollande and 46% for Sarkozy in the second round.
Updated results for tonight's presidential election are in - suggesting that Le Pen has not quite taken 20% of the vote.
Here are the most recent results:
Marine Le Pen: 18.5%
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/frele...-perspectives/The first post-election poll is in, and it has Hollande winning 54% to 46%. The inner workings are interesting; they reckon that 33% of the Bayrou votes go to the PS, 32% to Sarko, and the rest nowhere, 86% of the Mélénchon votes go PS, 60% of the FN go Sarkozy, 18% go PS, the rest nowhere. You can see why Sarko is still trying to get more FN voters.
Read the thread title as french erections checking in.
Your posting is medium, its not rare and its not well done
- Krans 26/7/12
The pre-polling for the 2nd round has stayed at that 6% gap for the last few months, Sarkozy hasn't been able to budge the electorate its made up its mind. Hollande will be the next Preisdent of France, the only reason its this close is because the guy who was meant to run for the Socialist's Dominque Strauss-Kahn the former head of the IMF couldn't keep his dick in his pants in NYC and got accused of rape and had to drop out of the race.
Will be interesting to see what the ramifications are for the EU, the Merkel/Sarkozy partnership has been the driving force behind the EU's response to the Eurozone crisis and a change in French leadership will impact those efforts.
So what's the point of this first round of voting? Do people get seats from it or is it something to do with preferences?
Anyone who knows about this that can give a TL;DR on the French electoral system?
The French have never been particularly far from fascism since the revolution anyways, or communism or anarchism for that matter, Frenchies love their extreme political views.
It's all about getting more options, the smaller parties can negotiate compromises and get major parties to incorporate stuff from minor parties' agenda in exchange of those votes. The small party leader then tells his supporters to vote for that party.
Thanks, sounds like a pretty good system. At least it beats the dodgy preferences and not-so-independents that we have here.
Well the Merkozy partnership has really seen a return to the Franco-German engine of Europe concept that existed in the European Community prior to the 80s. Its unlikely that the European Commission has the authority, capacity or leadership to be able to be able to propose solutions that are politically viable so I doubt we'll see a supranation solution to the Eurozone crisis, more likely a continuation of the inter-govermental approach that has happened previously. The question is whether Hollande will continue the same EU policies of Sarkzoy, I'm not terribly familiar with his policies nor French politics in general but considering hes left-centre or centre-left, depending on how you see such things, it'll be interesting if the French continue to support the hardline approach of the Germans.
When its all said and done though, the Germans are at the heart of the EU's economy, they're the ones with the real financial muscle, but given German history they really relied on the partnership with France to be able to present their plans without everyone fearing Germany hegemony. Realistically there seems to be a growing belief that at some stage Greece will ditch the Euro and return to the Drachma because it will need to devalue their currency and write off a shit ton of debt to become competative.
Anyway my knowledge of economics is rudamentary at best and this is a French politics thread so I'll stop filling it up with Euro trash.
If the French had elected Le Pen could we have call it Vichy France again?
I haven't put any effort into researching this, but I expect there is at least one mustached karate chopping person in a trenchcoat running for the election?
Interesting commentary on the mood of the french public and the various parties responses to it here (from a few days before the elections) it doesn't mention Le Pen much, but 'we hate brown people' isn't really an economic policy as such:
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/frele...he-manifestos/A few days ago, this half-French household got its official mailshot with the full set of candidates’ manifestos, from Sarkozy through to Jean-Pierre Cheminade, plus the kit of polling cards. You might be surprised by the consensus across them. Basically, the political nation has spoken, and what it said was “Piss off, bankers.” Now, the manner in which this sentiment was expressed varied a lot, and the concrete policy proposals to give it effect even more.
Two of the extreme-left candidates who didn’t join Mélénchon’s united front wish to default immediately on the national debt, for example, and they also want to seize the entire banking system by force majeure.
Mélénchon wants to amend the European treaties to explicitly permit central bank financing of the government, and is in general very keen on an inflationary exit from the crisis (is he perhaps a bit of a Modern Monetary Theorist?). He’s also quite keen on narrow banking, as are the extremists. But so are the Greens. And the Front National.
Hollande is strategically vague (as is Sarkozy), but does want to re-open the ECB charter, to regulate the banks more stringently, and to reorganise the various state-owned financial institutions into a national “pole”. The idea of a big public-sector bank is one that basically everybody seems to more or less support, in more or less centralised forms. Mélénchon of course wants a great national institution, presumably with a vast headquarters building somewhere in Paris, either suitably chic on the right bank or else in glass and steel out on the périf. The Greens see it as a network of local mutuals.
Similarly, a flavour of high Keynesianism prevails throughout. Everyone expect Sarko wants a big public works programme, and even he nods in the direction of stimulus. The exact content varies, of course. This threatens to run counter to EU doctrine, and pretty much everyone would like to redesign European institutions, although this is always framed as a demand for more European integration even when (like Mélénchon) it involves getting rid not just of the free movement of capital but even of goods within the EU. He’s actually more protectionist than the FN.