UK austerity set to last decades as cost of ageing population rises
Tax increases or more spending cuts will be needed to reduce national debt in long term, says Office of Budget Responsibility
Austerity measures will have to continue to find the extra £80bn needed by 2061 to pay for a rise in over-65s to 26% of the population, the OBR predicts. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
The age of austerity will be longer that first thought if the UK is to keep up with the escalating costs of an ageing population, the government's independent economic forecaster has said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said the UK's public finances were "clearly unsustainable" over the next 50 years, despite Chancellor George Osborne's punishing round of spending cuts.
Even if the government succeeds in saving £123bn over the next seven years, the OBR said it would need to permanently increase taxes or cut spending by 1.1% of GDP – around £17bn in today's terms – to get the national debt back to pre-crisis levels.
If the government continues with current policies, and if those policies succeed, the OBR said public finances would improve until the mid 2020s. But there would still be a long-term deterioration in the decades that follow.
Net public sector debt is forecast to fall from 74% of GDP in 2016-17 to a low of 57% in the mid-2020s, before rising increasingly fast to reach 89% of GDP in 2061-62. That is an improvement on last year's forecast that debt would reach 107% of GDP by 2061, but the OBR said more still needed to be done.
"On current policy we would expect the budget deficit to widen sufficiently over the long term to put public sector net debt on a continuously rising trajectory as a share of national income," it said. "This is clearly unsustainable."
People over 65 are expected to make up around 26% of the UK's population by 2061, compared with 17% this year. That will cost an additional £80bn in today's money to pay for health, pensions and long-term care, the OBR said.
Recent reforms to public sector pensions have cut costs by £175bn, it added. The bulk of those savings, around £126bn, came from the 2010 decision to make pensions rise in line with the consumer prices index, rather than the retail prices index.
As well as the growing burden of paying for the elderly, the OBR noted that declining North Sea oil production is likely to put pressure on revenues over the next 50 years. "This suggests governments are likely to need to find replacement streams of revenue just to hold the tax burden constant, let alone to meet the upward pressures on spending," it said.
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