Hey WB FMAR.Originally Posted by erichkknaar
Because the alternative is so much more palatable.
Also I must agree with erich. I see your point, the states has always looked ridiculous for reasons like this (in before some hopeless troll like Wall defends it) but there's no alternative. The right is too powerful in that country for you not to vote for him.
The sadest thing is that that power is actually mere skin-deep in the US.Hey WB FMAR.Because the alternative is so much more palatable.
Also I must agree with erich. I see your point, the states has always looked ridiculous for reasons like this (in before some hopeless troll like Wall defends it) but there's no alternative. The right is too powerful in that country for you not to vote for him.
The far-right, which is basically what the Republicans present these days, only looks that powerful because since Citizens United, corporations are people, money is free-speech, and the Republicans have lined up the largest number of rich old white billionaires with deep pockets. Here's a list of some of them: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...k=mostpopular3.
They all go Mitt Romney, they all spend large amounts of money, as they have before, and they represent a minute portion of the US people. None of them care one tiny bit about the war-on-drugs, or anything else really. They only represent their own self-interest. Lower taxes for themselves, let's kill the EPA, no inheritance tax, no financial regulations, the works. Right now, it is cheaper for these people to simply buy the election and Congress and make sure the laws and regulations go their way than anything else. This is an investment for them, where if they win, they'll make their money back tenfold. This has nothing to do with democracy.
The 'grass-roots' organisation for Mitt Romney is all but non-existant. The religious far-right is a tiny minority, and you don't hear much from the tea-party anymore because a large part of them have turned away in disgust since they saw that 'their movement' was basically hijacked away from them.
In Wisconsin the presidential elections are played out in advance, on a smaller scale. It is a touchstone of how the presidential elections will go in November. There the Republicans are outspending the Democrats at least 4 times to one, with some going as high as 10 to 1. Almost all that money comes from out of state, from wealthy donors like above. The Democrats have the popular support, and the small time donors. And all what that corporate money is buying Scot Walker is to keep him at 50%, and nothing more. So while everything Scot Walker has explicitly tried to do, apart from one of the worst records of running a state in recent memory, was trying to eliminate the competition in the funding race, all that money can't still buy him a clear lead in the polls.
The presidential elections are the same. Mitt Romney has almost no popular or grass-roots backing apart from fringe groups. But because he's able to outspend the Democrats around 4 to one nationally, he still able to get reasonable poll stats (skewed as they are during Summer). But he's got almost no support from (ethnic) minorities, trails in double digit numbers with women, with very little support from low and middle-class voters unless they subscribe to his fringe positions. This election is the most 'illusionary' ever in US politics. The only people Mitt Romney and the Republicans poll well with are old white people and fringe merchants. The rest of the voters are scared into voting for them by an avalanche of shit and misinformation paid for by business interest money. I think if he hadn't had that money, if he had to play by the rules from before Citizens United, he'd be trailing by double digit numbers by now. If the political system in the US weren't so horribly broken, Obama would win by a landslide and then some.
While the religious far-right might be a minority in numbers, don't underestimate the power they hold when it comes to elections in the US. They do control a significant portion of the vote, and although they've yet to come out in support of Romney mainly due to the fact that he's a Mormon, I have no doubt that he will be their candidate. Same goes for the Tea partiers, whilst they aren't as prominent as they were a couple of years ago there is no way in hell that they are going to vote for someone they perceive as a socialist.
This election is far from over, and while it might seem like Romney is lacking support from anyone but the rich at this moment in time, I'm pretty sure that the traditional republican base will come out and support him in the end. The Republican nominees where laughably bad this year and they ended up with what looks like a lame duck, but the large religious/right wing blocks will vote and they will vote Romney.
yes, I am Le terribad at BF3
Low voter turn out magnifies the electoral power of any group who can consistently organise a block of voters to get out and vote. Half the struggle is simply getting people to the ballot box.
That is probably the greatest threat to Obama, not that voters switch back to the GOP who voted Dem last time but people who voted for Obama staying at home while people who didn't vote for Bush come out to vote for Romney. The historic nature (change, hope, first darkie in the whitehouse) of the last election that galvanised a lot of people turn out for the Dems isn't there this time around. Many of those people who voted Obama in may not be so motivated this election, and hence the Dem vote will slip a few percent. If Romney could stop the GOP vote from bleeding (and I doubt he can for a host of reasons) then Obama would be in trouble.
Instead I expect a low voter turnout - bad weather could easily cut it by a few percent, simply because the gut support for either side isn't there this time around. That is why I think Romney can't win.
The sad fact is that the Dems should be sweeping the House at this election. The GOP retook the House in 2010 with tea partiers who pledged to stop government excess and upset the Washington status quo, yet they have by and large fallen into the same line as their predecessors; supporting GOP plans which would explicitly raise government spending and setting themselves up for life with corporate links and insider trading.
Even if Obama gets reelected there is a big chance that the Republicans will increase their majority in the House and possibly retake the Senate because Republican voters are so willing to vote against their own interests while Democrats can't be bothered voting.
I'm really excited for the next Debt Ceiling debacle.
Yes, I agree with most of that. But that's also what I don't understand from the religious right wing. All the stuff they are pulling already, the war on women, the reintroduction of the culture wars, and the rest. That is not going to galvanise their base any more than it already is. But I think it will sure as shit galvanise the opposition.
The rose is off the bloom for Obama, because chance, hope, and the first black president in history don't work for him this time round. So the possibility of lower voter turnout is very real. But as lower voter turnout on the progressive side can only help the far right wing because their base stays strong no matter what, why throw up so much shit on the table right now? How can this not lead to Obama saying: Look at what these guys are pulling off right now; do you really want to stay home and get 4 more years to this insanity?
Would it not be much smarter (I know, smart and the religious far right, but still), to just lay low with the absolutely retarded shit for a couple of months, focus on maintaining your base and get out your vote, win the election on general apathy of the other side, and then go all in with the insanity?
I mean, is this all hubris and general retardedness, or is the religious far right just trying to get as much in with their teaparty majority now, because the fear that they'll miss the boat come the presidential election?
Frankly it is probably a bit of both, but a lot of it comes from fear of the latter. Romney, and basically no one else in the Republican party still has the moral authority to call the shots and pull things together, so divided is the Republican party internally. So you see all kinds of wingnut basically going at it on their own, not caring about how it all looks, locally or nationally. They've got their teaparty elected people in place, and they fear that soon all that will be just a bad memory. They'll try to make it permanent, like in Wisconsin, or through more direct voter registration obstruction. But that's a risky thing they're not sure they'll get away with in the end. So at the same time they'll try to cram in as much of their own agenda in right now, before they can't anymore. Even if that riles up the opposition and loses them the next election. It is a really short-term and basically short-sighted strategy, but they've done, and will do a lot of damage, and then will obstruct to high heaven again when someone wants to turn the clock on it again afterwards.
In light of this, frankly, I don't think there will be that much of a problem with low voter turnout. Maher did put it right: when the ballot boxes are ready, many voters will remember that yes, Obama is quite lame, but the opposition is completely insane. Frankly, come November, I think quite a number of people will vote Democrat not because they very much like it, but simply because of the feeling that they'll need to put a stop to all the nonsense that will have come before.
That's going to be very interesting indeed. The religilous stuff is bad enough. Wisconsin is certainly going to be a calling card, and that's next week. But Republican plans to kidnap the political system again over the debt ceiling may be the big clincher when it comes to voter apathy on the progressive side.
Especially since all that the other side can do is throw piles of data about how Austerity killed Europe and America came out better. People don't like data and big numbers.That's going to be very interesting indeed. The religilous stuff is bad enough. Wisconsin is certainly going to be a calling card, and that's next week. But Republican plans to kidnap the political system again over the debt ceiling may be the big clincher when it comes to voter apathy on the progressive side.
Of course they do, but only when it supports their point of view. People foam at the mouth screaming about big government, over spending and interference with people's daily lives when the Dems are in charge, but I've yet to see a Republican administration that has cut government size, cut spending significantly across the board (Rather than cut it from one thing and spend on another), or stop trying to interfere with people's lives.
It's not that people don't like data and big numbers, it's that people don't like data and big numbers that don't support their world views.
yes, I am Le terribad at BF3
That's because it's easier to shout and scream abuse at someone you don't agree with, rather than considering if their argument has merit and changing one's own opinion if it does.Of course they do, but only when it supports their point of view. People foam at the mouth screaming about big government, over spending and interference with people's daily lives when the Dems are in charge, but I've yet to see a Republican administration that has cut government size, cut spending significantly across the board (Rather than cut it from one thing and spend on another), or stop trying to interfere with people's lives.
It's not that people don't like data and big numbers, it's that people don't like data and big numbers that don't support their world views.
LOOK AT ME IM LUBICA AND I'M RETARDED AND SHOULD SHUT UP BECAUSE IM RETARDEDThat's because it's easier to shout and scream abuse at someone you don't agree with, rather than considering if their argument has merit and changing one's own opinion if it does.Of course they do, but only when it supports their point of view. People foam at the mouth screaming about big government, over spending and interference with people's daily lives when the Dems are in charge, but I've yet to see a Republican administration that has cut government size, cut spending significantly across the board (Rather than cut it from one thing and spend on another), or stop trying to interfere with people's lives.
It's not that people don't like data and big numbers, it's that people don't like data and big numbers that don't support their world views.
PS FUCK YOU
Not just that. Fox has a deserved reputation for misrepresenting data their way after all. And the Republicans are experts at shouting a lot of nonsense and somehow getting away with it.
It is more that both candidates are very anxious to talk about the economy. Obama to show what he has achieved. And Mitt to show that as a vulture capitalist he's the right man for the job. Neither can afford to let up on that. So by that time lots of data will have been thrown around by both sides already. Probably until the US people are quite sick and tired of it all.
Austerity remains to be seen. That depends all on how things work out in Europe in that time.
But by that time the Republicans will be itching to take the country hostage again over the debt ceiling. And then Obama only has to turn round and say: so, Mitt, you financial wizard, you would you deal with this problem? Lower taxes on the wealthy again? Where did that lead us to? And if rating agencies will be dropping ratings on the US again, which they've already threatened to do, there's nothing left for the Democrats to do but point fingers and say: "See what that guy's politics will do to our country?". He'll be tagging Mitt with his own parties bullshit on this issue. Again.
I mean, even if the Republicans don't decide to go for the nukular option again (doubtful), the Democrats will just chalk that up as an Obama victory, and an example of what he can do even with the Republicans obstructing everything possible. Or if they go with another continuation without decision, of how the Republicans are just pushing the ball forwards without wanting to deal with the real problems facing the country. By that time I wonder if not a couple of those Republicans will be looking over their shoulder to their own elections.
Then again, we're talking about Democrats here, and massive amounts of spending by Republican billionaires. So the Democrats may actually fail to get the messaging right, or simply not be able to get the message out. At any rate, it'll be very interesting to see it play out as however it turns out in the end, it'll probably have a lot of effect on the election.
I was just going to say Barth, the opportunity has been granted repeatedly for the Dems to frame the issue properly and they fail to bust through to provide a solid signal to noise ratio.
That's because there is so much overwhelming noise and so many stupid people.
People who actually make economic decisions have been convinced years if not decades ago. What you are witnessing now is Republicans using their idiot base as an instrument of blackmail. "Cut the taxes on the rich, or the economy gets it."
LOOK AT ME IM LUBICA AND I'M RETARDED AND SHOULD SHUT UP BECAUSE IM RETARDEDThat's because it's easier to shout and scream abuse at someone you don't agree with, rather than considering if their argument has merit and changing one's own opinion if it does.Of course they do, but only when it supports their point of view. People foam at the mouth screaming about big government, over spending and interference with people's daily lives when the Dems are in charge, but I've yet to see a Republican administration that has cut government size, cut spending significantly across the board (Rather than cut it from one thing and spend on another), or stop trying to interfere with people's lives.
It's not that people don't like data and big numbers, it's that people don't like data and big numbers that don't support their world views.
PS FUCK YOU
e-bully!
/runs of crying
e: fail quote, i blame forums and canadians
I just hope voters will be realistic come November, electing people that are willing to work with the other side rather than just shout at each other and try to advance their own agenda all the time. At the same time, I have little hope of that happening.
I think we're fucked as a country long-term unless we can get people back into power who are moderate and pragmatic, working towards a more efficient government than necessarily a smaller or larger one, a group of people who are willing to take balanced approaches to issues like taxation, spending, and so on, rather than just working off a talking point like some puppet. Radicals on either side are what we need least right now, and frankly I hope the Republicans crash and burn hard in Novemeber. The hard-right tack they've taken, essentially saying "our way or the highway" is ridiculous, and while Democrats certainly aren't perfect, at least I've seen them trying to compromise and negotiate instead of the scorched earth people on the right.
We're going to see yet another clusterfuck come the next debt ceiling talks, whopee.
Indeed, hence the second line.
Le sigh.
I agree with the sentiment, but think that unless the Republicans get a sound drubbing at the ballot box in November, I don't see them coming to their senses any time soon. And I hope that will happen by then, but I doubt it will.
There's just too much rich billionaire money involved in this election, too many shenanigans with voter registration and other ways to game the system, too much disinformation being spouted day-in day-out, for this election to not be close somewhere or other, or as a whole. And if the fringe Republicans can just conjure up one reason not to change tack, they'll grab it, and the US will head into another 4 years of filibusterers, obstructionism, shouting bullshit, and general insanity. They'll grasp at any straw.
Which this time might actually bring the US, and the global economy, to its knees. Basically, for the Republicans to change tack, they need to lose the presidential elections, and lose both houses of Congress at the same time. With all that's going on, and especially is you see what is up for a vote in November, and who's running, chances of that are quite small.
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