The first thing that I notice is that it is an ADR that is lightly traded here, so anyone could move the stock a lot with modest buying or selling. Other than that, I feel there is support at 8.50ish and resistant at 9, then 9.20, and then 9.35. There also seems to be a serious downtrend in the stock. You should maybe book half profits now and let the other half run.Originally Posted by Jason Marshall
Ive figured out how to setup an auto sell. Will dump MVG when it hits 10.50/share. Its grown 24% since i bought in. =( best performer by far. But I guess i wont ever actually make money if I dont sell for a profit.
Im probably being more open about all of this than I should be, but, meh. At the very least ill learn a lesson.
Gentleman, how are expectations looking for the upcoming earnings reports? I've seen some rumblings about this or that anxiety, though I'm not terribly concerned as far as my own portfolio is concerned (though it may be a buying opportunity, time will tell). I'd checked out MOS a while back, seeing them here I may give them another look. Still ruminating on JNJ vs just increasing my position in one of my already held dividend payers.
I haven't read a single report that's upbeat about this earnings season. That doesn't preclude some surprises, but my guess is as time goes on the earnings season will indeed be depressing. Considering the only thing that was really fueling various areas of 'recover' were record corporate profits, this might be a bit of a shock to the system as a whole. Granted, one weakish earnings season does not a recession make, but considering the climate I wouldn't hold my breath.
A buying opportunity, now that's something I'd enjoy discussing. Personally, I'm not a buyer yet. The market is down a few percent off it's highs yes, but it would take bizarre and unforeseeable circumstances for the global economy to regain solid footing. Considering the discussions in economic circles are trending towards using words like 'debt/leverage corrections' and focusing on 'systemic weaknesses,' my personal stance right now would be to put 6 month sell orders on risky/non dividend paying assets (anything that can't passively generate money in a safe (ish) established company). Choose a price point that you'd be willing to part with your riskier assets with and if the market does slide, you still capture liquidity and hopefully some profit from the slide to turn to invest (either sooner or down the road when lows are hit) into stocks/bonds that won't fail and can pay a %. If the market holds steady, well, no harm no foul.
Short term though, I'm not putting any money in. Take my opinion with a grain of salt as I am not a professional advisor/economist.
I agree with you on staying away from risky, non-dividend paying growth issues right now; however, I see this as moment as an opportunity nonetheless. I got bit by the Ben Graham bug some time ago, so I always have the Mr. Market analogy running through my head, so in my mind, now is the time where I should be looking for companies with strong balance sheets and dividend payouts. I think history has shown that the bloodbath is likely to be overdone, and if this earnings season turns out to be especially brutal, it just may constitute a chance to snap a few securities up at bargain prices. In my mind, the only concern is to make sure that whatever issue looks like a bargain, really is a bargain, and not just a turd.
Personally, I think the real challenge lies in being able to look at your portfolio unflinchingly, all the while bouncing from Green to Red and back again, and still be able to identify good issues and liquidate legitimately bad positions, all the while without getting carried off by the normal market vicissitudes. Anyways, bottom line, I'm a bit more bullish, and am trying to get spun up on a few candidates that caught my eye on the S&P500s listing ahead of the earnings reports, and with any luck, I'll be able to get a few more issues at a good price.
Disclaimer: I am also an amateur, so take my comments with the requisite grain of salt.
S&P 500 is up 7.54% YTD. It shouldn't be.
Xeuras, your general ideas are quite reasonable, but you need to wait for significant pullbacks or look at beaten down sectors or "growth" stocks. Everyone else has already bought "strong balance sheet dividend payers" by now, so they are expensive at the moment.
Xeuras, this is my point in direct terms. The market is overvalued right now. Staunchly overvalued. Bide your time and mind your liquidity until the timing is more appropriate.
Xeuras, this is my point in direct terms. The market is overvalued right now. Staunchly overvalued. Bide your time and mind your liquidity until the timing is more appropriate.
I both understand and agree with this notion. The crux of what I wanted to put out was that I believe that the upcoming earnings reports may provide such an opportunity. Keyword being 'may'.
It's not good to look at YTD numbers that way without looking at how irrationally far the markets dropped previously.
I mean the S&P is also down from 5-6 years ago (when it was moderately overvalued) and 12-13 years ago (when it was massively overvalued), not counting dividends. US stock valuations are right around their long-term historical averages relative to earnings, which indicates the market is pretty fairly valued in my mind. Many profitable large caps seem very fairly valued when considering the safety of their long-term earnings and dividend yields of 3-4% compared to 0.2% on a 1-year treasury.
It's not a bad time to buy high quality rental real estate long-term if you can get a ~3.5% fixed mortgage (that's almost interest free after inflation), but otherwise holding cash long-term isn't a great idea and it's not like gold/commodities, corporate bonds or treasuries are particularly good places to park your cash long-term either given their current super-high valuations.
So, helicopter Ben is bringing it back, and I'm necro'ing the thread with an update. Quite happy I was patient with my GLD holdings, as Ben just made me some money, being able to offload my remaining 87 shares at 171 a piece (cackling with glee). Similarly, I'm going to dump ENTR while the Dow is inflated as shit (13540 is rediculous right now), as it's sitting at a P/E of 50.1 (didn't even care to check if that was normalized, or forward P/E, still retarded). Also waiting to see if a good opportunity to get out of TST will arise soon, as that position is a bloody mess atm (not enough to hurt my gains, but still irrititating to look at). Anyways, still researching some new buys for years end, will come through with those later (This is of course assuming my prediction comes true, and the DJIA shits itself come Dec/Jan).
im sitting on my ENTR, i think there is still upside.
also, new long play is ATRS, going to wait for price to drop though its pipeline is good.
I'm officially Bearish on the stock market.
Someday, stocks are going to have get weened off the QE nipple and realize the fact that things aren't going to get better until debt comes down. QE only spurs debt and corporate profits bases. Does nothing to fix the real problem and causes inflation too.
Seriously.. getting sick of it now.
aye, market is at an all time high, and im not entirely sure why. new round of QE will help but I sold a bunch of stuff this summer and am looking to buy in when things move back down.
I don't know, I'm having a blast trading the swings on momentum stocks. Done about 30% returns by selling in the peaks and buying at dips over last couple of weeks. Which is nice...since I lost my shirt earlier this year when I did something stupid and rode my picks into earnings. I might wind up breaking even for the year at this rate, but let's face it: I'm trading, not investing...which means I might as well just go Vegas or the track.
Good on you, and thanks for differentiating between investing and trading. It is an important difference.
As annoying as it is, there really won't be any more serious market moves until 1) the election and 2) the 'fiscal cliff' debates.
Agreed on all points sir.Good on you, and thanks for differentiating between investing and trading. It is an important difference.
As annoying as it is, there really won't be any more serious market moves until 1) the election and 2) the 'fiscal cliff' debates.
Btw, anyone taken a look at Wells Fargo, ticker WFC? I've taken a few looks mostly at cash flow and so forth, I haven't dug deep into the records yet to look at debt/capitalization ratios and the like though. Just looking to get a second pair of eyes on it.
Shockingly, it's a bank that looks undervalued. Not a terrible dividend yield as well.
That said, I'll just leave this nugget. The financial sector in general is betting very heavily on Romney. There's got to be a return on investment reasoning behind this. Imo, banks aren't really in the realm of consideration until after the election due to that uncertainty.
Also, more difficult information to find, but you should look into various global exposures, specifically sovereign holdings.
anyone can recommend a good 'accounting for dummies' type of book to learn about how to really understand a company's bank sheets, cash flow etc?
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