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Thread: US Politics Thread, 2.0

  1. #7341
    mewninn's Avatar
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    Well the Presidency is extremely powerful and that's when I expect the Dems in congress will really get motivated to limit its powers after Sanders cancels student debt and starts paring back the empire.

  2. #7342
    Liare's Avatar
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    2020 is certainly shaping up to be interesting, there's a rather pertinent Lenin qoute.

    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
    ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
    oh yea as a side note, we've just had a winter averaging 5c, in Scandinavia, winters with fuck-all snow is not uncommon here, but it was not just a winter with fuck all snow, it was a winter with barely any freezing temperatures. the amount of times i had to scrape ice off the car this winter can be counted on two hands and i have already ditched the warm jacket for my vest because temperature peaks at 6-8c, the daffodil's are coming up, 1.5 month earlier than usual.

    things are going weird with the regional climate, every season since summer 2018 have been record-setting in one shape or another, 2018 was basically one long heat-wave from may until late september, winter 2019 was so wet it's a wonder nobody drowned (0.3mm from being the wettest ever) Winter this year basically never arrived, we've basically gone straight from late fall to early spring.

    i get the usual "it's just yearly outliers" but that many in a row ? at this rate, the American election and the attendant ratfucking might end up being the least interesting bit going on this year.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  3. #7343
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    If a) Sanders wins in November, and b) Trump doesn’t attempt/succeed at a coup, I’d expect the entire lame-duck session to be spent doing things like selling off all federal student loan debt to Betsy DeVos so that Sanders can’t use executive power to forgive it.

    You know I learned something interesting about student loan debt, the other day, doing research on collecting a judgment for a client. Apparently if you default on student loans and the lender seeks a garnishment, they can only collect 15% of your disposable income. Which is less than lots of people are paying under their timely repayment plans.
    Last edited by Lachesis VII; February 21 2020 at 03:18:09 PM.

  4. #7344
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    2020 is certainly shaping up to be interesting, there's a rather pertinent Lenin qoute.

    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
    ― Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
    oh yea as a side note, we've just had a winter averaging 5c, in Scandinavia, winters with fuck-all snow is not uncommon here, but it was not just a winter with fuck all snow, it was a winter with barely any freezing temperatures. the amount of times i had to scrape ice off the car this winter can be counted on two hands and i have already ditched the warm jacket for my vest because temperature peaks at 6-8c, the daffodil's are coming up, 1.5 month earlier than usual.

    things are going weird with the regional climate, every season since summer 2018 have been record-setting in one shape or another, 2018 was basically one long heat-wave from may until late september, winter 2019 was so wet it's a wonder nobody drowned (0.3mm from being the wettest ever) Winter this year basically never arrived, we've basically gone straight from late fall to early spring.

    i get the usual "it's just yearly outliers" but that many in a row ? at this rate, the American election and the attendant ratfucking might end up being the least interesting bit going on this year.

  5. #7345
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    If a) Sanders wins in November, and b) Trump doesn’t attempt/succeed at a coup, I’d expect the entire lame-duck session to be spent doing things like selling off all federal student loan debt to Betsy DeVos so that Sanders can’t use executive power to forgive it.

    You know I learned something interesting about student loan debt, the other day, doing research on collecting a judgment for a client. Apparently if you default on student loans and the lender seeks a garnishment, they can only collect 15% of your disposable income. Which is less than lots of people are paying under their timely repayment plans.
    Can you default selectively, like not pay the loan but pay everything else and save up/invest money?

    Because if so, why isn't everyone defaulting?

    Tapapapatalk
    nevar forget

  6. #7346
    Alistair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Djan Seriy Anaplian View Post
    Does the popular vote winner in the primary not automatically get the nomination?
    No.

    -The popular vote winner in each primary state gets 100% the delegates for that state *

    * Some States have proportional assignment of delegates, so each candidate above a certain % threshold gets their % of the delegates.

    -The winner of each Caucus state, similarly, also gets 100% of the delegates, unless it's a state with a proportional assignment system.

    The nomination goes to whomever has the most delegates (again, over a threshold) on the first vote of the Democratic Party Convention. I believe this cycle SuperDelegates are not voting in round #1.

    If no candidate gets that, then (I believe) the SuperDelegates get to also vote, and the voting continues till someone gets the required majority.

    This kind of "brokered convention" is potentially a nightmare that can (in theory) go so far as choose a candidate that wasn't even in the primaries, once it opens up after that first vote.

    Best thing for the Dems is for a clear winner to emerge, as early as possible, and the party to rally around them for the general election.

    The longer the party is divided, and getting nasty with each other (a la the last debate), the more advantage it gives Trump come the general. That's a bad thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    What would the potential repercussions be if super delegates don't back Sanders if he has the most votes in the first ballot (but not 50%) and they swing it elsewhere?

    I like to think the campaign apparatus that has sprung up around Bernie has the ability to develop the infrastructure to create a new progressive party and they walk away from the democrats.
    A cute thought, but unlikely. A Democrat/Progressive split into two parties all but guarantees perpetual Republican domination......unless they also split into two parties.

    Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE a four-party+ system > two-party dominance.......but I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.

    Best case, a "Bernie Progressive Party" cut loose from the Dems is a modern day version of Ross Perot. Enough support to fubar any Dem. candidate from winning, not enough to win on his own without the Dems.
    Last edited by Alistair; February 21 2020 at 05:05:27 PM.


  7. #7347
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Sort of. If you default on a federal student loan, your personal credit rating will go to shit, and you’ll be pretty much unable to borrow money from anyone. You are free to invest or save or whatever, but those assets can in theory be seized—the 15% thing just goes for wage garnishments, and there are other ways to collect on a judgment. In practice, that doesn’t really happen, and even wage garnishments are pretty rare. They’re just happy to fuck your credit and take your tax returns. Private lenders are a bit more aggressive, but not that much more so.

    Also, you need judicial process and a fair amount of legal legwork to get and collect on a judgment. If people defaulted en-masse there really wouldn’t be a (constitutional) mechanism to carry out mass collections/garnishments.

    There are some authors who have posited that a student debt strike would force a liquidity crisis, and that as a result holders of student debt, collectively, wield a ton of power, if they choose to use it.
    Last edited by Lachesis VII; February 21 2020 at 04:56:08 PM.

  8. #7348
    Alistair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    So who didn't see any evidence that media is against Sanders?
    Just speaking casually, as a viewer, I think there is no question CNN is not in favor of Sanders.


  9. #7349
    Alistair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    There are some authors who have posited that a student debt strike would force a liquidity crisis, and that as a result holders of student debt, collectively, wield a ton of power, if they choose to use it.
    The key phrase is bolded.

    You're quite right, collectively thats a metric shitton of debt with considerable theoretical power.

    However, the odds of a materially collective use of that power is quite low: https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfri.../#275cd47133fb

    This is a year old at this point, but it gives a ballpark indicator of the % of student debt in default. It's around 11%.

    With 89% not in default, it would be challenging to get that 89% to join in on a debt strike or other collective action that has a high likely hood of material negative ramifications to those not in default if they join in.

    The solution, of course, is free education up through college level. Such a move has some likely unintended negative consequences, but a better educated society is a better society in my book, so worth supporting.


  10. #7350
    Alistair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alistair View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    So who didn't see any evidence that media is against Sanders?
    Just speaking casually, as a viewer, I think there is no question CNN is not in favor of Sanders.
    They're not in favour of Trump either, but you don't hear anyone complain about that.
    I hear right-wingers complain about it regularly and excessively.

    But there's a difference between not being in favour of one candidate or the other, and putting out mis- or dis-information. In the way Fox News does (in short: they just lie).

    Is omitting a questions from an hour and a half long debate mis- or dis-information?
    I disagree. What FOX does is obvious, and thus easier to show/demonstrate.

    What a CNN may do is vastly more subtle, and far harder to prove.

    Editorial decisions on what to cover/not cover can (and IMO do) show a material and meaningful bias, and as with any powerful media, can serve as a form of exclusion for certain fringe candidates.

    Omission and exclusion and decisions to not cover X or Y can be just as bad as outright lies, and far harder to combat. "No one else is reporting that" is a common refrain I've heard to dismiss certain facts that CNN (or the like) have chosen not to cover.

    The Smolet case is a good example. Wall to Wall multi-day extended coverage on CNN of the alleged attack and what it all meant. Almost no coverage on CNN of the most recent Grand Jury 6x indictment against him for his alleged lies and false statements.

    Make no mistake that CNN is a Corporate Media entity, with interests and biases of it's own. It is not objective, even if it is more fact-driven in it's reporting than say, FOX.

    And that's before we get into how opinion-driven so much of CNN's content is these days.

    Being fact-driven still leaves alot of room for biased coverage decisions that could hurt a specific candidate.
    Last edited by Alistair; February 21 2020 at 05:37:44 PM.


  11. #7351
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    The Reasonable Alistair™.

  12. #7352
    Alistair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    The Reasonable Alistair™.
    As opposed to the "Curious Timing" Alistair? Lol.

    Honestly, the only timing of my return was allowing enough time to let my butthurt at how some folks here treat me wear off.

    I am a politics and policy wonk. I prefer discussing it with Euros over domestic folks. That's why I keep coming back.
    Last edited by Alistair; February 21 2020 at 05:47:25 PM.


  13. #7353
    mewninn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistair View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    There are some authors who have posited that a student debt strike would force a liquidity crisis, and that as a result holders of student debt, collectively, wield a ton of power, if they choose to use it.
    The key phrase is bolded.

    You're quite right, collectively thats a metric shitton of debt with considerable theoretical power.

    However, the odds of a materially collective use of that power is quite low: https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfri.../#275cd47133fb

    This is a year old at this point, but it gives a ballpark indicator of the % of student debt in default. It's around 11%.

    With 89% not in default, it would be challenging to get that 89% to join in on a debt strike or other collective action that has a high likely hood of material negative ramifications to those not in default if they join in.

    The solution, of course, is free education up through college level. Such a move has some likely unintended negative consequences, but a better educated society is a better society in my book, so worth supporting.
    The thing with the 89% not in default is they're already paying so many rents that crowd out other things they could be doing. There will be a tipping point in the future where the combination of housing, car loans (!!), student debt, and medical debt will become so oppressive that no one sees any point in following the rules anymore.

    The economy and this country could sort of coast for a while because people had consumer distractions to amuse them, but what happens if all of those become unaffordable because the costs keep following the same trajectory? We already have the Very Serious People lecturing kids about how they should power down in a closet after work. That's not sustainable.


  14. #7354
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    That suggests consumer debt is being used by a not insignificant number of people just to cover necessary costs.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  15. #7355
    Liare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    That suggests consumer debt is being used by a not insignificant number of people just to cover necessary costs.
    surely that's the whole point of consumer debt ?
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  16. #7356
    Donor Spaztick's Avatar
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    Dems might just be stupid enough to erode their own party this go around, don't even need to fearmonger over Trump about it. Sanders wins popular vote but not 50% (or does) and then they go to whatever rule that says "we're gonna pick who our donors tell us to pick."

    My last post also highlighted that no matter what the fate of the presidency is set for the next 4 years as a rich east coast democrat will win the presidency.

  17. #7357
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Classic New York scenes.

    Brooklyn vs Manhattan vs Queens.

  18. #7358
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistair View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    The Reasonable Alistair™.
    As opposed to the "Curious Timing" Alistair? Lol.

    Honestly, the only timing of my return was allowing enough time to let my butthurt at how some folks here treat me wear off.

    I am a politics and policy wonk. I prefer discussing it with Euros over domestic folks. That's why I keep coming back.
    Fair enough, you just always show when stuff starts heating up, which makes sense given your explanation.

  19. #7359
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Old man endorses young man for president.


  20. #7360
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    So who didn't see any evidence that media is against Sanders?
    I didn't. And because I don't live in the US, I asked for some kind of evidence. None was forthcoming.

    This however is ... curious.

    Has there been any response from NBC/MSNBC on this yet?

    Again, I don't have access to US news/broadcasts ...
    MSNBC’s daily smear...

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/msnbc-...it-black-girls

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