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Thread: US Politics Thread, 2.0

  1. #6961

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Spaztick View Post
    Is anyone surprised that primaries get stolen from Sanders like last time?
    https://features.desmoinesregister.c...gYcD0Cgt3oNX8Q

    Look at the “final alignment” tab.
    Doesn't make for much better reading, frankly. Yes he won the ~popular vote~ (in a state that does everything it can to avoid using the popular vote), but if he can't pick up yang, biden or klobuchar voters when they're eliminated he's going to struggle throughout the primary season, and likewise the GE (hypothetically).

  2. #6962
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    You’re again making statements in the past tense, with only 60% of the data available.

    Yang and Warren voters are more likely to break for Sanders than any other candidate. Biden and Klobuchar for Buttigieg.

    I see no decisive advantage either way.

  3. #6963

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    You’re again making statements in the past tense, with only 60% of the data available.
    It would take a near-total inversion of the final alignment breakdown for the remainder of the votes to change the analysis. You know this, stop being silly. This is, at best, a not great night for Bernie.

  4. #6964
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    You’re again making statements in the past tense, with only 60% of the data available.
    It would take a near-total inversion of the final alignment breakdown for the remainder of the votes to change the analysis. You know this, stop being silly. This is, at best, a not great night for Bernie.
    It wasn’t a *great* night for Bernie, it was just a good one. Good for Pete, too.

    Let’s wait until the delegate counts are finalized to talk about winners, that’s all I’m saying. Particularly when only a few percent separate the top two candidates.

    Pete had a good showing, and most importantly, Biden got a dose of reality. Aside from the app snafu, I see no real surprises or revelations here.

    I’d be fine with a primary season focused on give-and-take between the most popular progressive (Sanders) and the most progressive moderate (Buttigieg). That sounds like a constructive outcome, to me.

  5. #6965
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    A reminder that Trump was third or worse in many contests, yet won the nomination. The field will thin out soon.
    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    WTF I hate white people now...
    Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Dashboard

  6. #6966
    Dorvil Barranis's Avatar
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    If the trend follows, Biden and Warren wash out, and it is between Sanders and Buttigieg. Moderates (Anti-Sanders coalition) are gonna rally behind another candidate quick.
    "Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered, those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid. Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win." - Zhuge Liang


  7. #6967
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    I suspect that it won't, actually. But maybe I'm wrong.

    Not sure who will blink first between Klobuchar and Biden. Will depend on how badly Biden does before Super Tuesday.

    Warren is in until after Super Tuesday and probably beyond; she remains a viable compromise candidate all the way to the convention, in the event of a meltdown. Don't see why she'd quit. Also, if she quits early it makes Sanders the immediate front-runner as her voters shift to him preferentially. Not sure she's willing to do that.

    Bloomberg stays in for as long as he wants to, because oligarch.

    Yang will stay in as long as it remains fun. He'll continue to perform in single-digits, but he has a platform and he'll use it as long as possible.

    I think Tom Steyer is still running, but nobody's voting for him so he doesn't factor in.

    Is there anyone else?
    Last edited by Lachesis VII; February 5 2020 at 04:11:25 AM.

  8. #6968
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    Hopefully Warren bows out sooner rather than later with a massive turn to support Sanders.

    Everything I'm sewing says the vote being split between them is bad.

  9. #6969
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dorvil Barranis View Post
    VA Health for All!
    Might drag the US down to the par of the NHS.
    lark gonna lark

    usually you'd hope they'd grow out of their edgy butt phase by the time they're done with their teens, but some manage to make it a lifestyle
    I was being a bit facetious but last time I checked the US had better 5 year survival rates than the UK for a whole host of cancers among other things. While I would be against moving to a US style model the NHS is far from the perfect model and it does need some serious reform.

    WTF is wrong with Joe Biden?

    There are other models to use than the NHS.
    Quote Originally Posted by Keieueue View Post
    I love Malcanis!

  10. #6970
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    Hopefully Warren bows out sooner rather than later with a massive turn to support Sanders.

    Everything I'm sewing says the vote being split between them is bad.
    Right but she’s a liberal and he’s not.

  11. #6971
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    Hopefully Warren bows out sooner rather than later with a massive turn to support Sanders.

    Everything I'm sewing says the vote being split between them is bad.
    Right but shes a liberal and hes not.
    I literally don't know what you mean by liberal in that context. The word is applied to so much that it's lost its meaning.

    (Doesn't help that the Liberal Party in Australia is headed by a socially conservative religious zealot marketing executive who backs market intervention in favour of fossil fuels).

  12. #6972
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    Remember the last time there was a 23 hour delay in a vote being counted and America backed a coup in Bolivia?
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  13. #6973
    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Remember the last time there was a 23 hour delay in a vote being counted and America backed a coup in Bolivia?
    That's different.

  14. #6974
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    Breaking: Lithium deposits discovered in Iowa

    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    I literally don't know what you mean by liberal in that context. The word is applied to so much that it's lost its meaning.
    Liberals believe that societal problems are bad but the causes of the problems are good.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  15. #6975
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    Or I like weed, gays and niggers but not poor.

  16. #6976
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    They think they like the poor but they lack any analytical framework to identify an empathise with poverty in a meaningful way. Which is why they either try to give the poor money hoping they'll just go away or they offer them a college degree in return for crippling debt.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  17. #6977
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    Iowa kind of ruins the 'electability' narrative around Biden, I imagine his campaign finances will start getting squeezed now. I doubt he'll drop out though.

    The biggest thing is the progressive network which has built around Sanders, if they stay active beyond this election cycle they have the potential to really influence local and state politics in America.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  18. #6978

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    You could argue that's also one of his biggest personal flaws. The newer generations of Democrats making waves in the house have already dragged the narrative at least as far left as he'd want to take it. What do you need him for then?

  19. #6979
    מלך יהודים Zeekar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    You could argue that's also one of his biggest personal flaws. The newer generations of Democrats making waves in the house have already dragged the narrative at least as far left as he'd want to take it. What do you need him for then?
    To keep the narrative there. A couple of lefties wont do much. They don't have the power of the tea party for example.


    

  20. #6980
    Keckers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    You could argue that's also one of his biggest personal flaws. The newer generations of Democrats making waves in the house have already dragged the narrative at least as far left as he'd want to take it. What do you need him for then?
    The movement doesn't need Bernie at all, the same way the British left doesn't need Corbyn.

    Sanders only has an use if he is the presidential candidate or there's hope for him becoming the candidate. If he doesn't get the nomination they need to move on from him and show the DNC they are not going to back a status-quo corporatist candidate.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

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