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Thread: (UK EURO THREAD) UK POLITICS MK2

  1. #20221
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Just read this opinion piece and was asking myself, did he exaggerated about the state of the UK or is it even worse. There is a glimmer of hope that some kind of grass root politics may happen. So how correct is this piece.

    I was going to search for a comment of mine back from 2019/2020 forecasting how bad the UK economy will be hit and adding a "i told you so" but this piece sounds so serious i'm not going to smug about me being right.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...l-disobedience
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  2. #20222
    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Just read this opinion piece and was asking myself, did he exaggerated about the state of the UK or is it even worse. There is a glimmer of hope that some kind of grass root politics may happen. So how correct is this piece.

    I was going to search for a comment of mine back from 2019/2020 forecasting how bad the UK economy will be hit and adding a "i told you so" but this piece sounds so serious i'm not going to smug about me being right.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...l-disobedience

    I read that and still dont really get it.

    What is the left wing view of the cause of the cost of living crisis, can someone explain it to me? Join the dots from "low regulation" (or whatever they are blaming) to "current inflationary pressures"?

    Is there any evidence to support this view, like, I don't know, non-existant inflation in countries with more left wing approaches?

  3. #20223

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    What is the left wing view of the cause of the cost of living crisis
    Calling it a cost of living crisis it a bit of a misnomer. It's a corporate profits crisis exaberating issues with global supplied disrupted by covid, war and other such.
    The Tory "less regulation is clearly the answer" is seen as bad as the lack of functioning government trying to make things better for it's people is a problem, not a solution.
    technology canít solve economic and political problems

  4. #20224

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    But the stonks must go up

  5. #20225
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    It's a bit of shit article. The current inflationary pressures are an inevitable result of cost push inflation due to interrupted global supply chains and a bunch of monetary problems which have been around since the GFC and were compounded by interventions like furlough spending during covid. The biggest issue facing the UK economy has been absolutely anemic growth for the past decade (in dollar terms the UK economy hasn't really grown at all). This is mostly due to economic mismanagement by successive Tory governments and their total inability to invest the nation's future in any meaningful way.

    If the economy had a stronger base which wasn't totally eroded by ideological commitment to austerity and a half-witted approach to brexit we could weather the current inflationary storm and use it as an opportunity to inflate away debt. As it is we have a totally disfunctional economy catering the needs of a useless class of middlemen and financiers while people doing socially useful work are constantly shit all over and forced to bear the cost of an economy operated against their interests.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  6. #20226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itiken View Post
    What is the left wing view of the cause of the cost of living crisis
    Calling it a cost of living crisis it a bit of a misnomer. It's a corporate profits crisis exaberating issues with global supplied disrupted by covid, war and other such.
    The Tory "less regulation is clearly the answer" is seen as bad as the lack of functioning government trying to make things better for it's people is a problem, not a solution.
    Do you have any statistics supporting this link between corporate profits and say, food prices? I work with some big growers and they have all made a loss the last 3 years, primarily due to wage and energy inflation.

  7. #20227
    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    It's a bit of shit article. The current inflationary pressures are an inevitable result of cost push inflation due to interrupted global supply chains and a bunch of monetary problems which have been around since the GFC and were compounded by interventions like furlough spending during covid. The biggest issue facing the UK economy has been absolutely anemic growth for the past decade (in dollar terms the UK economy hasn't really grown at all). This is mostly due to economic mismanagement by successive Tory governments and their total inability to invest the nation's future in any meaningful way.

    If the economy had a stronger base which wasn't totally eroded by ideological commitment to austerity and a half-witted approach to brexit we could weather the current inflationary storm and use it as an opportunity to inflate away debt. As it is we have a totally disfunctional economy catering the needs of a useless class of middlemen and financiers while people doing socially useful work are constantly shit all over and forced to bear the cost of an economy operated against their interests.
    An actually sensible take, +rep

    The only thing I wouldnt hand wave away is the sheer impact the current geopolitical situation and its direct consequence, gas prices, is having on literally everything else. Electricity, fertiliser and processed raw materials all follow gas prices to some degree, and more or less everything else follows those prices. If gas dropped tomorrow to 2019 prices and looked like it would stay there then inflation would be gone, more or less instantly.

    So what could have kept gas prices low? Appeasing Russia? Investing in the north sea (tax breaks etc?)? Encouraging fracking? Better relationships with OPEC? These are not popular progressive policies.

    Here's an unpopular take: In some ways, this crisis of hydrocarbon pricing is a necessary step towards actually tackling climate change. With perpetually cheap and easy gas, there's really no incentive to electrify or go for energy security.
    Last edited by Lallante; August 23 2022 at 10:16:49 AM.

  8. #20228

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Itiken View Post
    What is the left wing view of the cause of the cost of living crisis
    Calling it a cost of living crisis it a bit of a misnomer. It's a corporate profits crisis exaberating issues with global supplied disrupted by covid, war and other such.
    The Tory "less regulation is clearly the answer" is seen as bad as the lack of functioning government trying to make things better for it's people is a problem, not a solution.
    Do you have any statistics supporting this link between corporate profits and say, food prices? I work with some big growers and they have all made a loss the last 3 years, primarily due to wage and energy inflation.
    Record profits for grain firms
    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...s-windfall-tax

  9. #20229

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    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Itiken View Post
    What is the left wing view of the cause of the cost of living crisis
    Calling it a cost of living crisis it a bit of a misnomer. It's a corporate profits crisis exaberating issues with global supplied disrupted by covid, war and other such.
    The Tory "less regulation is clearly the answer" is seen as bad as the lack of functioning government trying to make things better for it's people is a problem, not a solution.
    Do you have any statistics supporting this link between corporate profits and say, food prices? I work with some big growers and they have all made a loss the last 3 years, primarily due to wage and energy inflation.
    Record profits for grain firms
    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...s-windfall-tax
    Grain _traders_ not producers, when the goods get more expensive the middle men that take X percent on the top are pretty much guaranteed record profits.

  10. #20230
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    Exactly those are all companies that buy grain, ship it elsewhere internationally, and sell it.

    Most of the UK's grain does not come from them as we produce domestically (only 15% is imported and its largely from Germany).

    Separately you always have to be wary of "record profits" claims on commodity sellers. If I make a (very low) 3% margin on a commodity that usually sells for 100, I usually make 3. If the market price then goes to 500, all of a sudden my 3% margin, which remains unchanged, gives me record profits of 15. But this isnt me 'profiteering' its just a natural consequence of a fixed (and in this example very reasonable/low) margin on a variable price.

    Now "record margins" is a very different story.

    edit: just realised this is just what depili said with extra steps
    Last edited by Lallante; August 23 2022 at 12:17:11 PM.

  11. #20231
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  12. #20232

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post

    Here's an unpopular take: In some ways, this crisis of hydrocarbon pricing is a necessary step towards actually tackling climate change. With perpetually cheap and easy gas, there's really no incentive to electrify or go for energy security.
    It fukin sucks but true
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  13. #20233
    Mashie Saldana's Avatar
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    So what are people hoping to achieve by all these strikes?

    The cost of gas isn't going down just because people refuse to work. If everyone wants/gets a pay increase matching inflation, guess what, we are back on square one and everyone wants another equal increase next year and nothing has been gained besides pension savings getting greatly devalued affecting everyone. Of course it is a benefit if you have a mortgage but that is probably the only good thing with inflation running wild.

  14. #20234
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    The top 350 companies in the UK are making like 70% more profits now over pre covid. But yes let's not force these companies to pay their workers properly the only way the unwashed masses are able to.

    Remember all progress we've made for workers rights have been made with massive strike action and threats of violence against the state.
    Quote Originally Posted by Djan Seriy Anaplian View Post
    Also that didn't sound like abloo bloo to me, PM me and we can agree on a meeting spot and settle this with queensberry rules, that's a serious offer btw. I've been a member of this community since 2005 and i've never met a more toxic individual.

  15. #20235

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    So what are people hoping to achieve by all these strikes?

    The cost of gas isn't going down just because people refuse to work. If everyone wants/gets a pay increase matching inflation, guess what, we are back on square one and everyone wants another equal increase next year and nothing has been gained besides pension savings getting greatly devalued affecting everyone. Of course it is a benefit if you have a mortgage but that is probably the only good thing with inflation running wild.
    It is civil unrest.

    Case in point: NL has a lot of gas on land and on North sea. Gov made a record extra 10 bill euro of the increased prices, however they 'only' helped the population with 5.5 bill in energy compensation for the lowest incomes. Prices are so high even middle income has trouble getting by. So our gov made a extra 4.5b profit. Up till today they refuse to do more compensation stating they are allready doing a lot. Parliament is rioting today tho so we will see.
    Lower incomes get 1200 euro's this year on a average increase of 2 to 3 k per annum on energy alone, not even counting food inflation etc, energy tax is temp lowered from 21% to 9% till december 31. Strikes will force the gov to do more with extra gas income.

    I can imagine UK North sea gas taxation is the same per capita.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  16. #20236

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    So what are people hoping to achieve by all these strikes?

    The cost of gas isn't going down just because people refuse to work. If everyone wants/gets a pay increase matching inflation, guess what, we are back on square one and everyone wants another equal increase next year and nothing has been gained besides pension savings getting greatly devalued affecting everyone. Of course it is a benefit if you have a mortgage but that is probably the only good thing with inflation running wild.
    It is civil unrest.

    Case in point: NL has a lot of gas on land and on North sea. Gov made a record extra 10 bill euro of the increased prices, however they 'only' helped the population with 5.5 bill in energy compensation for the lowest incomes. Prices are so high even middle income has trouble getting by. So our gov made a extra 4.5b profit. Up till today they refuse to do more compensation stating they are allready doing a lot. Parliament is rioting today tho so we will see.
    Lower incomes get 1200 euro's this year on a average increase of 2 to 3 k per annum on energy alone, not even counting food inflation etc, energy tax is temp lowered from 21% to 9% till december 31. Strikes will force the gov to do more with extra gas income.

    I can imagine UK North sea gas taxation is the same per capita.
    p.s for new collective contracts the pay increase is between 3 and 5%, inflation since may was between 11 and 6%.......GG

    My 3 year fixed price contract with the energy company will end december 15. I did a calculation. I am going to pay 3.5x as much as i do now lololololol
    Last edited by Sacul; August 23 2022 at 09:27:42 PM.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  17. #20237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    So what are people hoping to achieve by all these strikes?

    The cost of gas isn't going down just because people refuse to work. If everyone wants/gets a pay increase matching inflation, guess what, we are back on square one and everyone wants another equal increase next year and nothing has been gained besides pension savings getting greatly devalued affecting everyone. Of course it is a benefit if you have a mortgage but that is probably the only good thing with inflation running wild.
    What pensions and savings? You might want to have a look at how thoroughly the middle classes have been hollowed out over the past couple of decades if you remove the asset values of housing.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  18. #20238
    Mashie Saldana's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    So what are people hoping to achieve by all these strikes?

    The cost of gas isn't going down just because people refuse to work. If everyone wants/gets a pay increase matching inflation, guess what, we are back on square one and everyone wants another equal increase next year and nothing has been gained besides pension savings getting greatly devalued affecting everyone. Of course it is a benefit if you have a mortgage but that is probably the only good thing with inflation running wild.
    What pensions and savings? You might want to have a look at how thoroughly the middle classes have been hollowed out over the past couple of decades if you remove the asset values of housing.
    The private pensions that your employer now has to pay in to from your monthly pay.

    I'm one of those crazy people that have put in towards a private pension for 20 years as I don't expect much of a state pension in the future.

  19. #20239

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post

    Here's an unpopular take: In some ways, this crisis of hydrocarbon pricing is a necessary step towards actually tackling climate change. With perpetually cheap and easy gas, there's really no incentive to electrify or go for energy security.
    It fukin sucks but true
    It's entirely true, but at the same time the prospective PM's are making policies to reduce renewables. Which seems like madness even for this government.

  20. #20240
    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    So what are people hoping to achieve by all these strikes?

    The cost of gas isn't going down just because people refuse to work. If everyone wants/gets a pay increase matching inflation, guess what, we are back on square one and everyone wants another equal increase next year and nothing has been gained besides pension savings getting greatly devalued affecting everyone. Of course it is a benefit if you have a mortgage but that is probably the only good thing with inflation running wild.
    Terrible take. People are striking because government hasnt taken any action to bring down the cost of gas nor provided palliative measures to people hit hardest by energy bills/inflation.

    Secondly, a wage increase by the level of inflation DOES NOT cause an equal increase in inflation; most studies put the magnitude of the effect at around 1:10 or 1:20, so we would be giving people a 15+% pay rise for a 1.5% inflation hit next year. "Nothing gained" is fucking nonsense.

    Tbh minimum wage should be tied to inflation and all decent companies should guarantee inflation-linked payrises. Failing to increase pay by at least inflation (i.e. a real terms pay cut) ought to be treated as constructive dismissal, the same way a nominal pay cut would be.

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