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Thread: (UK EURO THREAD) UK POLITICS MK2

  1. #6101
    Shaikar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Really? They lost control of Wirral and Hartlepool, FFS. Labour even managed to lose control in Bolsover. Bolsover for crying out loud. It's supposedly a Labour stronghold! It's bloody Dennis Skinner's backyard! Labour -13, Tory +2 (!), Lib Dem +1, Independents +10 (!).
    And how did Wirral, Hartlepool and Bolsover vote in the referendum?

    Do you genuinely believe that Labour would have held on to seats and councils in leave-voting areas had they been solidly anti-Brexit?
    According to: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/...rendum/results

    Wirral voted Remain
    Hartlepool voted Leave.
    Bolsover voted Leave

  2. #6102
    Movember 2012 Zekk Pacus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Capitano View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    And how did Wirral, Hartlepool, and Bolsover vote in the referendum?

    Do you genuinely believe that Labour would have held on to seats and councils in leave-voting areas had they been solidly anti-Brexit?
    They lost them with a Leave policy and gave up potential gains in Remain areas. They're a shitty no man's land of a party right now.
    This assumes there are potential gains in remain areas.

    The demographics for Labour sadly don't support that.

    I hate Brexit as much as anyone but it's not as simple as 'go full second referendum cancel brexit receive bacon'.

    A lot of Labour's strongest seats are in heavily Leave supporting areas.
    'I'm pro life. I'm a non-smoker. I'm a pro-life non-smoker. WOO, Let the party begin!'

  3. #6103

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    Tory losses are now up to 442.

    The last time they lost 500 seats in a night was 1996.
    BBC Headline: both major parties take a hammering.
    *thinking*
    Please don't teach me what to do with my pc.

  4. #6104
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    Some of these swings are pretty eye-watering
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ce...d-city-council

  5. #6105

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    Quote Originally Posted by Prof Sir John Curtis
    I think it is fair to say that this is the return of at least three-party politics. But I suspect that on 23 May we will discover that there are more than three significant players and we may see the most fragmented British electorate since the advent of mass British democracy.
    Thanks Corbyn, well played ... such leadership, such strategy ...



    The massive big elephant in the room isn't just Brexit, it's Corbyn too ... he's failed, yet again, and Labour is in worse shape than ever ...

    Remember that local elections are the election the opposition party needs to do well if they want to have a shot at taking over ... This result already tells you that Corbyn is likely going to lose the general election he claims he so desperately wants (but has failed to bring about).

    If Labour goes on to lose the EU parliament elections as well (and it looks like it), it's (well past) time to ditch Corbyn and his clique. Otherwise they'll wreck Labour's chances for decades to come.

    Let's face it, unlike the Tories, Labour has plenty of good candidates hanging about ... once that can actually win an election, any election other that a leadership contest (which I doubt Corbyn could win these days anyway) ...

  6. #6106
    Movember 2012 Zekk Pacus's Avatar
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    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    'I'm pro life. I'm a non-smoker. I'm a pro-life non-smoker. WOO, Let the party begin!'

  7. #6107

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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    Some of these swings are pretty eye-watering
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ce...d-city-council
    For the Tories to lose Chelmsford to the Lib Dems ... jebus .. they had a 45 seat majority!

    The Tories are getting absolutely hammered ...


  8. #6108

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    Quote Originally Posted by Itiken View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    Tory losses are now up to 442.

    The last time they lost 500 seats in a night was 1996.
    BBC Headline: both major parties take a hammering.
    *thinking*
    Labour won 466 seats & 11 councils in 1996. They've lost 69 seats & 1 council so far this one. At least UKIP lost a bunch of seats.

  9. #6109

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    People hadn't seen through Corbyn then ... I hadn't certainly ... they have by now ... you don't hear the yoof of today singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore now, do you?

  10. #6110

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lancehot View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Itiken View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    Tory losses are now up to 442.

    The last time they lost 500 seats in a night was 1996.
    BBC Headline: both major parties take a hammering.
    *thinking*
    Labour won 466 seats & 11 councils in 1996. They've lost 69 seats & 1 council so far this one. At least UKIP lost a bunch of seats.
    A large amount of those lost UKIP seats seem to be switching over to Independents. See Tendring* in Essex for an example of this. I suspect that in some cases it may actually be the same people getting elected.

    *Tendring is basically the Clacton-on-Sea area, previously the constituency of UKIP's Douglas Carswell.

  11. #6111

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    People hadn't seen through Corbyn then ... I hadn't certainly ... they have by now ... you don't hear the yoof of today singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore now, do you?
    They did during at least one of the climate change school strikes.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-walk-protest/

    Quote Originally Posted by The Torygraph
    Meanwhile, the road to Westminster Bridge was blocked by a line of students holding hands and crying out chants of “We're not moving" and refrains of “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn”, with traffic brought to a standstill for half an hour.
    Last edited by Rodj Blake; May 3 2019 at 11:41:06 AM.

  12. #6112

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    People hadn't seen through Corbyn then ... I hadn't certainly ... they have by now ... you don't hear the yoof of today singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore now, do you?
    They did during at least one of the climate change school strikes.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-walk-protest/

    Quote Originally Posted by The Torygraph
    Meanwhile, the road to Westminster Bridge was blocked by a line of students holding hands and crying out chants of “We're not moving" and refrains of “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn”, with traffic brought to a standstill for half an hour.
    That must have translated to a massive win for Labour in the local elections then ... ohh, wait ...

  13. #6113
    Movember 2012 Zekk Pacus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    People hadn't seen through Corbyn then ... I hadn't certainly ... they have by now ... you don't hear the yoof of today singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore now, do you?
    In 2015 I might grant you that, although I will point out that I and many others I know originally planned to vote Burnham until he ran such a fucking dogshit campaign that we voted for our man out of spite.

    In 2016 we knew who we had, and yet again, they managed to put up such a fucking godawful candidate in Owen Smith that Corbyn won. Owen Smith who failed to generate any positive poll momentum despite HEAVY positive media pressure. Owen Smith the man for whom the word 'milquetoast' might as well have been invented for. A clear stalking horse candidate who managed to actually do precisely the opposite of what a stalking horse is meant to do.

    Ask yourself why there hasn't been another leadership challenge since then? The will is certainly there, and I imagine that certain elements of the PLP could whip up the required 51 supporters at any time. Yet they do not. Why? Because they still don't understand why Corbyn won and why he continues to have any support whatsoever, and until they do they know their polling data shows they'll lose again. The natural continuation of the centre-left Labour party that certain people want can be seen in CUK, a party currently polling at 4%. The idea that there is a gap in British politics for a centre-left, economically conservative and socially liberal party is a ridiculous Twitter bubble. There is a gap in British politics, but it's not for that party at all - it's for an economically liberal, socially conservative party, which is why UKIP, BNP et al gain such heavy poll bounces whenever they're even semi-organised. A fund the NHS and hang the darkies party, if you like.

    As a member I'm more than willing to vote for someone else as leader - have been ever since 2015 - but they have to show that they're not going to continue the Brown/Miliband policy days of being wishy washy as fuck. Until then I'll go to war with the army I have.
    'I'm pro life. I'm a non-smoker. I'm a pro-life non-smoker. WOO, Let the party begin!'

  14. #6114

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    People hadn't seen through Corbyn then ... I hadn't certainly ... they have by now ... you don't hear the yoof of today singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore now, do you?
    In 2015 I might grant you that, although I will point out that I and many others I know originally planned to vote Burnham until he ran such a fucking dogshit campaign that we voted for our man out of spite.

    In 2016 we knew who we had, and yet again, they managed to put up such a fucking godawful candidate in Owen Smith that Corbyn won. Owen Smith who failed to generate any positive poll momentum despite HEAVY positive media pressure. Owen Smith the man for whom the word 'milquetoast' might as well have been invented for. A clear stalking horse candidate who managed to actually do precisely the opposite of what a stalking horse is meant to do.

    Ask yourself why there hasn't been another leadership challenge since then? The will is certainly there, and I imagine that certain elements of the PLP could whip up the required 51 supporters at any time. Yet they do not. Why? Because they still don't understand why Corbyn won and why he continues to have any support whatsoever, and until they do they know their polling data shows they'll lose again. The natural continuation of the centre-left Labour party that certain people want can be seen in CUK, a party currently polling at 4%. The idea that there is a gap in British politics for a centre-left, economically conservative and socially liberal party is a ridiculous Twitter bubble. There is a gap in British politics, but it's not for that party at all - it's for an economically liberal, socially conservative party, which is why UKIP, BNP et al gain such heavy poll bounces whenever they're even semi-organised. A fund the NHS and hang the darkies party, if you like.

    As a member I'm more than willing to vote for someone else as leader - have been ever since 2015 - but they have to show that they're not going to continue the Brown/Miliband policy days of being wishy washy as fuck. Until then I'll go to war with the army I have.
    Agreed on everything apart from the NHS - most of the Brexit Party / UKIP hierarchy are in favour of NHS privatisation.

  15. #6115

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    This assumes there are potential gains in remain areas.

    The demographics for Labour sadly don't support that.

    I hate Brexit as much as anyone but it's not as simple as 'go full second referendum cancel brexit receive bacon'.

    A lot of Labour's strongest seats are in heavily Leave supporting areas.
    Seeing as being a shitty Brexit party is failing to expand their demographic and their existing demographic is being whittled away, I still fail to see how being a shitty Brexit party is worth it, or why so many of their members even support it, considering how strongly remain they are.

  16. #6116

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zekk Pacus View Post
    Shame they didn't put any of those good candidates up in the 2015 or 2016 leadership elections, really.
    People hadn't seen through Corbyn then ... I hadn't certainly ... they have by now ... you don't hear the yoof of today singing 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' anymore now, do you?
    In 2015 I might grant you that, although I will point out that I and many others I know originally planned to vote Burnham until he ran such a fucking dogshit campaign that we voted for our man out of spite.

    In 2016 we knew who we had, and yet again, they managed to put up such a fucking godawful candidate in Owen Smith that Corbyn won. Owen Smith who failed to generate any positive poll momentum despite HEAVY positive media pressure. Owen Smith the man for whom the word 'milquetoast' might as well have been invented for. A clear stalking horse candidate who managed to actually do precisely the opposite of what a stalking horse is meant to do.

    Ask yourself why there hasn't been another leadership challenge since then? The will is certainly there, and I imagine that certain elements of the PLP could whip up the required 51 supporters at any time. Yet they do not. Why? Because they still don't understand why Corbyn won and why he continues to have any support whatsoever, and until they do they know their polling data shows they'll lose again. The natural continuation of the centre-left Labour party that certain people want can be seen in CUK, a party currently polling at 4%. The idea that there is a gap in British politics for a centre-left, economically conservative and socially liberal party is a ridiculous Twitter bubble. There is a gap in British politics, but it's not for that party at all - it's for an economically liberal, socially conservative party, which is why UKIP, BNP et al gain such heavy poll bounces whenever they're even semi-organised. A fund the NHS and hang the darkies party, if you like.

    As a member I'm more than willing to vote for someone else as leader - have been ever since 2015 - but they have to show that they're not going to continue the Brown/Miliband policy days of being wishy washy as fuck. Until then I'll go to war with the army I have.
    The candidates for both leadership elections were shit. I agree with you on that. And for Labour to move back to the Blair/Brown/Miliband format is no longer possible. I agree that there's no gap for Labour to fill there.

    But in 2016, the reason only Own Smith showed up, was mostly because no one sane didn't want to challenge Corbyn at the height of his popularity with the membership. The whole coup attempt was shit, and it backfired. Badly.

    That's no longer the case now though. On Brexit, at least, the PLP and the membership are now mostly in agreement, while Corbyn and his clique are not. And it is clear that the army you're going to war with is led by a donkey (and so are the Tories).

    At any rate, the actually good candidates are now pretty scared off to bring about a leadership challenge now, lest it backfires again. They need a damned good reason to come out of the woodworks now. And two lost elections (local and EU), and more betrayal of the membership by enabling a Tory Brexit, might just be that.

    And should it come about, the smart money is not on the candidates bring Labour back to the centre-left, but sticking with the anti-neo-liberal policies, just without the incompetency and paranoia of the current leadership, and with a Brexit strategy that is actually comprehensible and in line with the members of the party. There are several people who can pull that off.

    I agree that the Tories have trouble on the far right wing of their party, but that has been the case for decades now, and is matter for another discussion.

  17. #6117

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    With the caveat that around 100 councils still haven't declared, it's clear that there are some pretty big regional differences:


  18. #6118

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lancehot View Post
    At least UKIP lost a bunch of seats.
    For all intents and purposes UKIP has ceased to exist as a party.

  19. #6119

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    With the caveat that around 100 councils still haven't declared, it's clear that there are some pretty big regional differences:

    Regional breakdowns are risky, because the real breakdowns that matter are by income spread; Labour is now the party of the urban middle class more than it is the party of any region.

  20. #6120

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rodj Blake View Post
    With the caveat that around 100 councils still haven't declared, it's clear that there are some pretty big regional differences:

    'Key wards', no mention of who many wards Labour/Tories have now lost control over, expressed in vote share change and not in council seats, etc. etc.

    Pretty shitty graph basically ...

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