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Thread: (UK EURO THREAD) UK POLITICS MK2

  1. #3961
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    you sort of already tried that, didn't end well
    Several times, if I recall

  2. #3962
    Donor Spawinte's Avatar
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    Cabinet meetings called for tonight on both sides of the sea. Something is up.

  3. #3963

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    I think she might have pulled it off lads

  4. #3964
    Djan Seriy Anaplian's Avatar
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    “Peace in our time”

  5. #3965
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Nah, they're making a lot of fuss to make it look better tomorrow morning. But the essentials will not have changed.

    Cox will put up a nice show about how whatever it is changes everything, but the reality will show through fairly quickly: some wording changed on the political declaration to 'clarify' that the EU doesn't want to trap the UK in the backstop indefinitely, and the UK can air grievances and .... that'll be it.

    Some MPs may want to take this to save face, but they were on the other side of the fence anyway. I don't see the DUP or the ERG changing tack at this very late stage, nor the Labour dissident group growing much beyond what it was either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  6. #3966
    Djan Seriy Anaplian's Avatar
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    Let’s wait and see if it’s a best efforts clause or something a bit more explicit.

  7. #3967
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    So what, EU threw Ireland under that Brexit truck? That will certainly help Italy and France (after Macaron) make their decisions on whether to stay in EU...

  8. #3968
    Djan Seriy Anaplian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    So what, EU threw Ireland under that Brexit truck? That will certainly help Italy and France (after Macaron) make their decisions on whether to stay in EU...
    Please chill until you see the actual wording of the clause.

  9. #3969
    מלך יהודים Zeekar's Avatar
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    If UK managed to shaft over IR the popcorn will be amazing. And the EU will dissolve but who gives a fuck at that point.


    

  10. #3970
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    There are not much options here.

    Eithers its empty words and just rephrasing same backstop to placate the MPs and deceive the public, or someone is getting thrown under that bus. Be it EU, UK or Ireland.

  11. #3971

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    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    There are not much options here.

    Eithers its empty words and just rephrasing same backstop to placate the MPs and deceive the public, or someone is getting thrown under that bus. Be it EU, UK or Ireland.
    If they have thrown Ireland under the bus it won't be ratified, as they need all 27 to agree on the 21st to any changes and Ireland has a veto.

  12. #3972
    מלך יהודים Zeekar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siv View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    There are not much options here.

    Eithers its empty words and just rephrasing same backstop to placate the MPs and deceive the public, or someone is getting thrown under that bus. Be it EU, UK or Ireland.
    If they have thrown Ireland under the bus it won't be ratified, as they need all 27 to agree on the 21st to any changes and Ireland has a veto.
    Sure. But it would also send a big message to the weaker members of the block that they will be thrown under the bus for the benefit of the bigger ones.


    

  13. #3973
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    How I read the statements from the presser is that the clause 'clarifies' that if either of the parties (UK, EU) act 'in bad faith' than the other party can unilaterally step out. Who or what determines what 'bad faith' means remains unclear. Varadkar has been consulted, and he agrees, so the chance of Ireland having been thrown under the bus are basically nil.

    Which I take to mean that the clause doesn't actually change anything but the wording. Which was all the EU has been offering all along. So it's just a lot of spin and drama so that May can sell her deal. It won't work. As I doubt neither the ERG nor the DUP will vote for it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  14. #3974
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Corbyn is having none of it:
    This evening’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament, and whipped her MPs to vote for.

    Since her Brexit deal was so overwhelmingly rejected, the prime minister has recklessly run down the clock, failed to effectively negotiate with the EU and refused to find common ground for a deal Parliament could support.

    That’s why MPs must reject this deal tomorrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  15. #3975
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sp4m View Post
    I think we should unify Ireland as part of the United Kingdom.

    with tanks and stuff.

    solves a lot of problems
    Better yet, let them deal with Northern Ireland for a few decades, see how easy they think it is then.
    Quote Originally Posted by Keieueue View Post
    I love Malcanis!

  16. #3976
    Djan Seriy Anaplian's Avatar
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    Most lawyers find the notion of a contractual provision that purports to bind the EU quite funny anyway. It raises massive questions about enforcement: even if the EU gave an explicit guarantee there’s nothing to ensure they’d follow it.

  17. #3977
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Our glorious prime minister in Strassbourgh just now:
    Last November, after two years of hard-fought negotiations, I agreed a Brexit deal with the EU that I passionately believe delivers on the decision taken by the British people to leave the European Union.

    Over the last four months, I have made the case for that deal in Westminster and across the UK. I stand by what that deal achieves for my country.

    It means we regain control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK. Regain control of our borders, by ending free movement. Regain control of our money, by ending vast annual payments to the EU.

    The end of the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy for British farmers and fishermen. An independent trade policy.

    And the deal sets us on course for a good future relationship with our friends and allies in the EU. A close economic partnership that is good for business. Ongoing security co-operation to keep our peoples safe.

    The deal honours the referendum result and is good for both the UK and the EU.

    But there was a clear concern in Parliament over one issue in particular: the Northern Ireland backstop.

    Having an insurance policy to guarantee that there will never be a hard border in Northern Ireland is absolutely right – it honours the UK’s solemn commitments in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.

    But if we ever have to use that insurance policy, it cannot become a permanent arrangement and it is not the template for our future relationship.

    The deal that MPs voted on in January was not strong enough in making that clear and legally binding changes were needed to set that right. Today we have agreed them.

    First, a joint instrument with comparable legal weight to the withdrawal agreement will guarantee that the EU cannot act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely. If they do, it can be challenged through arbitration and if they are found to be in breach the UK can suspend the backstop.

    The joint instrument also gives a legal commitment that whatever replaces the backstop does not need to replicate it. And it entrenches in legally binding form the commitments made in the exchange of letters with Presidents Tusk and Juncker in January.

    Second, the UK and the EU have made a joint statement in relation to the political declaration. It sets out a number of commitments to enhance and expedite the process of negotiating and bringing into force the future relationship. And it makes a legal commitment that the UK and the EU will begin work immediately to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by the end of December 2020.

    There will be a specific negotiating track on alternative arrangements from the very start of the next phase of negotiations. It will consider facilitations and technologies - both those currently ready and emerging.

    The UK’s position will be informed by the three domestic groups announced last week - for technical experts, MPs, and business and trade unions.

    Third, alongside the joint instrument on the withdrawal agreement, the United Kingdom government will make a unilateral declaration that, if the backstop comes into use and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately disapply the backstop.

    Unilateral declarations are commonly used by states alongside the ratification of treaties.

    The attorney general will set out in legal analysis the meaning of the joint instrument and unilateral declaration to Parliament.

    Tomorrow, the House of Commons will debate the improved deal that these legal changes have created. I will speak in more detail about them when I open that debate. MPs were clear that legal changes were needed to the backstop. Today we have secured legal changes. Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal, and to deliver on the instruction of the British people.
    Seriously?
    ... will guarantee that the EU cannot act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely ...
    Now, how do you prove that? And how easy is it for the EU to circumvent this?

    I'd say: you can't, and very very easy. Meaning these 'legal changes' and guarantees are pointless and useless.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  18. #3978
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Best quote thusfar:
    Quote Originally Posted by McFadden
    Well, if this is a fig leaf it doesn’t cover very much and it certainly doesn’t cover the government’s desperation to give the ERG and the DUP an excuse to come in off the ledge.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  19. #3979
    Djan Seriy Anaplian's Avatar
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    It's also quote telling that they won't delay the vote.

  20. #3980

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Our glorious prime minister in Strassbourgh just now:

    The joint instrument also gives a legal commitment that whatever replaces the backstop does not need to replicate it. And it entrenches in legally binding form the commitments made in the exchange of letters with Presidents Tusk and Juncker in January.

    Second, the UK and the EU have made a joint statement in relation to the political declaration. It sets out a number of commitments to enhance and expedite the process of negotiating and bringing into force the future relationship. And it makes a legal commitment that the UK and the EU will begin work immediately to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by the end of December 2020.

    There will be a specific negotiating track on alternative arrangements from the very start of the next phase of negotiations. It will consider facilitations and technologies - both those currently ready and emerging.

    The UK’s position will be informed by the three domestic groups announced last week - for technical experts, MPs, and business and trade unions.

    Third, alongside the joint instrument on the withdrawal agreement, the United Kingdom government will make a unilateral declaration that, if the backstop comes into use and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately disapply the backstop.
    This is the only relevant bit in her speech.

    They discuss alternative arrangements...which is what she is meant to be doing for the last 2 months, so they are kicking the can down the road while they sort out facilitations and technologies which they have spent 2 years already looking at and decided they couldn't do.

    There is nothing new here at all other than some extra wishful thinking, the only question is do people get fooled by it and we end up in a permanent not in but not out limbo.

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