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Thread: The Automation Spiral (obligatory loleconomics thread v2)

  1. #41
    W0lf Crendraven's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Smuggo View Post
    U need communism comrades.

    You realise that fully automated gay space communism will only be a thing once the elites (not you or I) have purged all the cattle.
    We shall purge you last.
    Quote Originally Posted by QuackBot View Post
    I see you have read nietzsche's little known work "beyond boobs and butts".

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    The other side of the coin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ta-comment#_=_
    Facebook claimed the report was misleading, assuring the public that the company does not “offer tools to target people based on their emotional state”. If the intention of Facebook’s public relations spin is to give the impression that such targeting is not even possible on their platform, I’m here to tell you I believe they’re lying through their teeth.

    Just as Mark Zuckerberg was being disingenuous (to put it mildly) when, in the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory, he expressed doubt that Facebook could have flipped the presidential election.

    Facebook deploys a political advertising sales team, specialized by political party, and charged with convincing deep-pocketed politicians that they do have the kind of influence needed to alter the outcome of elections.

    I was at Facebook in 2012, during the previous presidential race. The fact that Facebook could easily throw the election by selectively showing a Get Out the Vote reminder in certain counties of a swing state, for example, was a running joke.

    Converting Facebook data into money is harder than it sounds, mostly because the vast bulk of your user data is worthless. Turns out your blotto-drunk party pics and flirty co-worker messages have no commercial value whatsoever.

    But occasionally, if used very cleverly, with lots of machine-learning iteration and systematic trial-and-error, the canny marketer can find just the right admixture of age, geography, time of day, and music or film tastes that demarcate a demographic winner of an audience. The “clickthrough rate”, to use the advertiser’s parlance, doesn’t lie.

    Without seeing the leaked documents, which were reportedly based around a pitch Facebook made to a bank, it is impossible to know precisely what the platform was offering advertisers. There’s nothing in the trade I know of that targets ads at emotions. But Facebook has and does offer “psychometric”-type targeting, where the goal is to define a subset of the marketing audience that an advertiser thinks is particularly susceptible to their message.
    "Very cleverly" and requiring "machine learning" my ass. Anybody with a basic understanding of how people use facebook and a couple of hours a week glancing over campaign dashboards and you can pick out winners within a month. It's so formulaic it becomes boring after a month. The difficult bit is creating good communication guidelines and not being too proud to admit mistakes when you need to change tack. People with a bit of extra cash in their pocket have been trained for decades to be consumers, even affiliate marketing through facebook as a sole platform is easy money if you're able to sleep at night while flogging shit products.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  3. #43
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    The other side of the coin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ta-comment#_=_
    Facebook claimed the report was misleading, assuring the public that the company does not “offer tools to target people based on their emotional state”. If the intention of Facebook’s public relations spin is to give the impression that such targeting is not even possible on their platform, I’m here to tell you I believe they’re lying through their teeth.

    Just as Mark Zuckerberg was being disingenuous (to put it mildly) when, in the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory, he expressed doubt that Facebook could have flipped the presidential election.

    Facebook deploys a political advertising sales team, specialized by political party, and charged with convincing deep-pocketed politicians that they do have the kind of influence needed to alter the outcome of elections.

    I was at Facebook in 2012, during the previous presidential race. The fact that Facebook could easily throw the election by selectively showing a Get Out the Vote reminder in certain counties of a swing state, for example, was a running joke.

    Converting Facebook data into money is harder than it sounds, mostly because the vast bulk of your user data is worthless. Turns out your blotto-drunk party pics and flirty co-worker messages have no commercial value whatsoever.

    But occasionally, if used very cleverly, with lots of machine-learning iteration and systematic trial-and-error, the canny marketer can find just the right admixture of age, geography, time of day, and music or film tastes that demarcate a demographic winner of an audience. The “clickthrough rate”, to use the advertiser’s parlance, doesn’t lie.

    Without seeing the leaked documents, which were reportedly based around a pitch Facebook made to a bank, it is impossible to know precisely what the platform was offering advertisers. There’s nothing in the trade I know of that targets ads at emotions. But Facebook has and does offer “psychometric”-type targeting, where the goal is to define a subset of the marketing audience that an advertiser thinks is particularly susceptible to their message.
    "Very cleverly" and requiring "machine learning" my ass. Anybody with a basic understanding of how people use facebook and a couple of hours a week glancing over campaign dashboards and you can pick out winners within a month. It's so formulaic it becomes boring after a month. The difficult bit is creating good communication guidelines and not being too proud to admit mistakes when you need to change tack. People with a bit of extra cash in their pocket have been trained for decades to be consumers, even affiliate marketing through facebook as a sole platform is easy money if you're able to sleep at night while flogging shit products.
    Yeah, it's also something that happens in 15 minute segments without a bunch of machine learning either if you do have a computer doing it. Are they still typesetting the guardian by hand or something?
    meh

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post

    Yeah, it's also something that happens in 15 minute segments without a bunch of machine learning either if you do have a computer doing it. Are they still typesetting the guardian by hand or something?
    You can't learn anything in 15 minute segments, the sampling period is too poor to get a read on the daily/weekly activity of the demographic. If the demographic is that big then you use the bonus in sampling size to hit on their daily habits, which has a far higher value than optimising something 4 times an hour. The marginal gains with machine learning in marketing aren't quite enough to make it a necessity, unless you happen to be selling high volume and high value products, which isn't the case for the majority of marketers who are usually flogging novelty t shirts or fad diets.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  5. #45
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post

    Yeah, it's also something that happens in 15 minute segments without a bunch of machine learning either if you do have a computer doing it. Are they still typesetting the guardian by hand or something?
    You can't learn anything in 15 minute segments, the sampling period is too poor to get a read on the daily/weekly activity of the demographic. If the demographic is that big then you use the bonus in sampling size to hit on their daily habits, which has a far higher value than optimising something 4 times an hour. The marginal gains with machine learning in marketing aren't quite enough to make it a necessity, unless you happen to be selling high volume and high value products, which isn't the case for the majority of marketers who are usually flogging novelty t shirts or fad diets.
    For sure. I'm just saying day part segmenting on 15 minute boundaries to categorize and bucket consumers that fall into one of your buckets, in other words, every 15 minutes, a new visitor/consumer is classified based on what they are browsing, and that gets more accurate with time, as your daily/weekly/monthly starts to roll in has been pretty commonly available for a while now and it's not that complicated. Not that you should use it in every case as its still quite expensive. Machine learning is useful as your dataset scales up though, both in terms of the granularity of your bucket, and complexity of your source information. Not all of this technology is about marketing either, there are a lot of reasons you might want to bucket your users.
    meh

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post

    Yeah, it's also something that happens in 15 minute segments without a bunch of machine learning either if you do have a computer doing it. Are they still typesetting the guardian by hand or something?
    You can't learn anything in 15 minute segments, the sampling period is too poor to get a read on the daily/weekly activity of the demographic. If the demographic is that big then you use the bonus in sampling size to hit on their daily habits, which has a far higher value than optimising something 4 times an hour. The marginal gains with machine learning in marketing aren't quite enough to make it a necessity, unless you happen to be selling high volume and high value products, which isn't the case for the majority of marketers who are usually flogging novelty t shirts or fad diets.
    For sure. I'm just saying day part segmenting on 15 minute boundaries to categorize and bucket consumers that fall into one of your buckets, in other words, every 15 minutes, a new visitor/consumer is classified based on what they are browsing, and that gets more accurate with time, as your daily/weekly/monthly starts to roll in has been pretty commonly available for a while now and it's not that complicated. Not that you should use it in every case as its still quite expensive. Machine learning is useful as your dataset scales up though, both in terms of the granularity of your bucket, and complexity of your source information. Not all of this technology is about marketing either, there are a lot of reasons you might want to bucket your users.
    The segmenting isn't machine learning, it's just changing your sampling time. The use of that data for optimisation and motivations for gathering it is almost always going to be driven by a human.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  7. #47
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post

    Yeah, it's also something that happens in 15 minute segments without a bunch of machine learning either if you do have a computer doing it. Are they still typesetting the guardian by hand or something?
    You can't learn anything in 15 minute segments, the sampling period is too poor to get a read on the daily/weekly activity of the demographic. If the demographic is that big then you use the bonus in sampling size to hit on their daily habits, which has a far higher value than optimising something 4 times an hour. The marginal gains with machine learning in marketing aren't quite enough to make it a necessity, unless you happen to be selling high volume and high value products, which isn't the case for the majority of marketers who are usually flogging novelty t shirts or fad diets.
    For sure. I'm just saying day part segmenting on 15 minute boundaries to categorize and bucket consumers that fall into one of your buckets, in other words, every 15 minutes, a new visitor/consumer is classified based on what they are browsing, and that gets more accurate with time, as your daily/weekly/monthly starts to roll in has been pretty commonly available for a while now and it's not that complicated. Not that you should use it in every case as its still quite expensive. Machine learning is useful as your dataset scales up though, both in terms of the granularity of your bucket, and complexity of your source information. Not all of this technology is about marketing either, there are a lot of reasons you might want to bucket your users.
    The segmenting isn't machine learning, it's just changing your sampling time. The use of that data for optimisation and motivations for gathering it is almost always going to be driven by a human.
    And you still have to train the machine. Machine trainers are going to be like the lion tamers of the 21st Century. All up in the AI's face with a chair and a revolver, jodhpurs flapping with action.

    Segmenting has nothing to do with machine learning, its just the time window your model tries to recognize patterns within. Then an hour of data is more accurate, then a days, then a months, etc.
    meh

  8. #48
    Donor Pattern's Avatar
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    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/basic...al-prosthetics
    A battle for the "soul" of the global economy is underway. The next few decades will likely decide whether capitalism survives or is replaced with a techno-fuelled quasi-socialism where robots do most of the jobs while humans live off government support, likely a designated guaranteed or basic income.

    Many experts believe wide-scale automation is inevitable. Even the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently announced it’s building an AI to replace its managers, many of whom are highly educated and previously thought invulnerable to automation. Robots, it seems, will manage everything. Or will they?

    The merging of humans and machines is happening now

    The merging of humans and machines is happening now

    A next-generation technology, likely to arrive in five to 10 years, is being credited as the saviour of capitalism. Known today as neural prosthetics, or neural lace, it's essentially tech that reads your brainwaves. This tech promises to connect our brains to the cloud and AI to link us with machines using thought alone.
    Saviour of capitalism? Ha! I wonder how much these "neural laces" will cost...
    Last edited by Pattern; May 8 2017 at 06:45:50 PM.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/basic...al-prosthetics
    A battle for the "soul" of the global economy is underway. The next few decades will likely decide whether capitalism survives or is replaced with a techno-fuelled quasi-socialism where robots do most of the jobs while humans live off government support, likely a designated guaranteed or basic income.

    Many experts believe wide-scale automation is inevitable. Even the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently announced it’s building an AI to replace its managers, many of whom are highly educated and previously thought invulnerable to automation. Robots, it seems, will manage everything. Or will they?

    The merging of humans and machines is happening now

    The merging of humans and machines is happening now

    A next-generation technology, likely to arrive in five to 10 years, is being credited as the saviour of capitalism. Known today as neural prosthetics, or neural lace, it's essentially tech that reads your brainwaves. This tech promises to connect our brains to the cloud and AI to link us with machines using thought alone.
    Saviour of capitalism? Ha! I wonder how much these "neural laces" will cost...
    i like how that article assumes that a exploitative economic system is something worth preserving, is the point not to hand as much as possible over to our tools so we can expend our time and effort on things we enjoy ? the entire article reads like a desperate peon suffering from stockholm syndrome at the prospect of not being able to have his surplus extracted.

    Libertarian
    ah, so that explains it, it also explains why he's so seemingly willing to trade away bits of him self, he views everything as fucking property to be bought and sold.

    as for that whole neural lace guff, considering how little we know about how the brain and mind works i am not buying it.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  10. #50
    Donor Pattern's Avatar
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    I can't imagine a capitalism where people compete with basic expert systems that have zero overhead - let alone recursively improving weak AI which is the stage were at right now. The libertarians are fucked, end game capitalism always leaves them behind.

  11. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post

    Yeah, it's also something that happens in 15 minute segments without a bunch of machine learning either if you do have a computer doing it. Are they still typesetting the guardian by hand or something?
    You can't learn anything in 15 minute segments, the sampling period is too poor to get a read on the daily/weekly activity of the demographic. If the demographic is that big then you use the bonus in sampling size to hit on their daily habits, which has a far higher value than optimising something 4 times an hour. The marginal gains with machine learning in marketing aren't quite enough to make it a necessity, unless you happen to be selling high volume and high value products, which isn't the case for the majority of marketers who are usually flogging novelty t shirts or fad diets.
    For sure. I'm just saying day part segmenting on 15 minute boundaries to categorize and bucket consumers that fall into one of your buckets, in other words, every 15 minutes, a new visitor/consumer is classified based on what they are browsing, and that gets more accurate with time, as your daily/weekly/monthly starts to roll in has been pretty commonly available for a while now and it's not that complicated. Not that you should use it in every case as its still quite expensive. Machine learning is useful as your dataset scales up though, both in terms of the granularity of your bucket, and complexity of your source information. Not all of this technology is about marketing either, there are a lot of reasons you might want to bucket your users.
    Bucketing and segmenting are very old hat now. Results are continuous and profiles are personal.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    I can't imagine a capitalism where people compete with basic expert systems that have zero overhead - let alone recursively improving weak AI which is the stage were at right now. The libertarians are fucked, end game capitalism always leaves them behind.
    so are the rest of us under the current "social contract" mate, we're already seeing the logical consequence where there are three basic types of employment going forward.

    1. the "Engineer" that makes and implements these technologies.
    2. the "Servant" who, trough some qualification they might have provide value to those who can afford it, think personal trainer and so forth.
    3. the "Prole" who competes with automation on cost, think shelf-stacker in the supermarket.

    guess who's going to be the majority, and guess who's going to get fucked.

    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  13. #53
    Smuggo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    I can't imagine a capitalism where people compete with basic expert systems that have zero overhead - let alone recursively improving weak AI which is the stage were at right now. The libertarians are fucked, end game capitalism always leaves them behind.
    so are the rest of us under the current "social contract" mate, we're already seeing the logical consequence where there are three basic types of employment going forward.

    1. the "Engineer" that makes and implements these technologies.
    2. the "Servant" who, trough some qualification they might have provide value to those who can afford it, think personal trainer and so forth.
    3. the "Prole" who competes with automation on cost, think shelf-stacker in the supermarket.

    guess who's going to be the majority, and guess who's going to get fucked.

    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    You should be learning to seize the means of production.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smuggo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    I can't imagine a capitalism where people compete with basic expert systems that have zero overhead - let alone recursively improving weak AI which is the stage were at right now. The libertarians are fucked, end game capitalism always leaves them behind.
    so are the rest of us under the current "social contract" mate, we're already seeing the logical consequence where there are three basic types of employment going forward.

    1. the "Engineer" that makes and implements these technologies.
    2. the "Servant" who, trough some qualification they might have provide value to those who can afford it, think personal trainer and so forth.
    3. the "Prole" who competes with automation on cost, think shelf-stacker in the supermarket.

    guess who's going to be the majority, and guess who's going to get fucked.

    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    You should be learning to seize the means of production.
    I think that's where the engineering degree comes in
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  15. #55
    Donor Pattern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    I can't imagine a capitalism where people compete with basic expert systems that have zero overhead - let alone recursively improving weak AI which is the stage were at right now. The libertarians are fucked, end game capitalism always leaves them behind.
    so are the rest of us under the current "social contract" mate, we're already seeing the logical consequence where there are three basic types of employment going forward.

    1. the "Engineer" that makes and implements these technologies.
    2. the "Servant" who, trough some qualification they might have provide value to those who can afford it, think personal trainer and so forth.
    3. the "Prole" who competes with automation on cost, think shelf-stacker in the supermarket.

    guess who's going to be the majority, and guess who's going to get fucked.

    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    Combine engineers with servants and replace with "Owner/Rentier" and you might have something more accurate. If you won't own what you produce, it doesn't matter what qualification you'll have.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pattern View Post
    I can't imagine a capitalism where people compete with basic expert systems that have zero overhead - let alone recursively improving weak AI which is the stage were at right now. The libertarians are fucked, end game capitalism always leaves them behind.
    so are the rest of us under the current "social contract" mate, we're already seeing the logical consequence where there are three basic types of employment going forward.

    1. the "Engineer" that makes and implements these technologies.
    2. the "Servant" who, trough some qualification they might have provide value to those who can afford it, think personal trainer and so forth.
    3. the "Prole" who competes with automation on cost, think shelf-stacker in the supermarket.

    guess who's going to be the majority, and guess who's going to get fucked.

    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    Combine engineers with servants and replace with "Owner/Rentier" and you might have something more accurate. If you won't own what you produce, it doesn't matter what qualification you'll have.
    oh i have no expectation of actually owning what i produce, but the reason i stuff engineers and so forth into their own category is that they at least have some albeit quite limited bargaining power per specialized knowledge.

    i just abstracted the capitalist away, i kinda assumed that one didn't need explicit definition in this context.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    Because you're an autist?

  18. #58
    Movember 2012 Elriche Oshego's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by W0lf Crendraven View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Smuggo View Post
    U need communism comrades.

    You realise that fully automated gay space communism will only be a thing once the elites (not you or I) have purged all the cattle.
    We shall purge you last.
    You'd be the first to have a full time vacation, all expenses paid, working at a KZ.

  19. #59
    Liare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoggbert View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    and guess why i am doing a engineering degree while in my 30's, i should realistically looking at having kids around now.
    Because you're an autist?
    well, that too actually.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  20. #60
    Keckers's Avatar
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    Here's a fantastic talk from Guy Standing about Basic Income given at LSE:

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/International-I...make-it-happen
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

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