hate these ads?, log in or register to hide them
Page 94 of 113 FirstFirst ... 448491929394959697104 ... LastLast
Results 1,861 to 1,880 of 2260

Thread: (Germany über alles) Superior EU Politics Thread

  1. #1861
    Fara's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Posts
    1,731
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Politics Talk: European papers are predicting the end of Merkel with the failure of the refugee summit...
    BERLIN, 23 JUN - "Endzeit", "the time of the end".
    The cover of the Spiegel, released today in Germany, shows the hands of Angela Merkel, in the position with which she is now ironically identified for years (with the indexes and thumbs joined), and an hourglass that indicates the end of the approaching time. The German media are opening today on the ever more pressing risk of a failure of the refugee summit, which should save the Merkel government, from the ultimatum of Horst Seehofer. "For Merkel, time passes ...", headlines Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Bild makes a parallel with football: "nerve warfare for Loew and Merkel".
    ...
    It's gonna be interesting to see if Seehofer goes through with it or not now.

    He's kind of in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position, isn't he? If he gives in, he's going to take a hit to AfD in October (?). If he doesn't give in, he's going to blow up CDU<>CSU, and may still take a hit in October, and have a serious issue after October.
    This is like the 4th time Seehofer tries to play tough to appease voters in Bavaria but then backs down because he doesnt actually wanna risk his parties spot in the government. I am pretty certain this wont be any different. All the AFD has to do is not have their retards act too retarded and the established parties will play right into their hands with stuff like that v0v

  2. #1862
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    in front of the class
    Posts
    14,401
    Quote Originally Posted by Fara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Politics Talk: European papers are predicting the end of Merkel with the failure of the refugee summit...
    BERLIN, 23 JUN - "Endzeit", "the time of the end".
    The cover of the Spiegel, released today in Germany, shows the hands of Angela Merkel, in the position with which she is now ironically identified for years (with the indexes and thumbs joined), and an hourglass that indicates the end of the approaching time. The German media are opening today on the ever more pressing risk of a failure of the refugee summit, which should save the Merkel government, from the ultimatum of Horst Seehofer. "For Merkel, time passes ...", headlines Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Bild makes a parallel with football: "nerve warfare for Loew and Merkel".
    ...
    It's gonna be interesting to see if Seehofer goes through with it or not now.

    He's kind of in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position, isn't he? If he gives in, he's going to take a hit to AfD in October (?). If he doesn't give in, he's going to blow up CDU<>CSU, and may still take a hit in October, and have a serious issue after October.
    This is like the 4th time Seehofer tries to play tough to appease voters in Bavaria but then backs down because he doesnt actually wanna risk his parties spot in the government. I am pretty certain this wont be any different. All the AFD has to do is not have their retards act too retarded and the established parties will play right into their hands with stuff like that v0v
    Still the majority of the vote in Bavaria will go to the CSU for tradition's sake. Not an absolute majority, but not enough to actually lose rule. They will either team up with the FDP or the SDP in the end. The AfD won't see numbers like they do in the East. How much they will get is actually something I'm curious to find out.
    nevar forget

  3. #1863
    Meester's Avatar
    Join Date
    October 25, 2011
    Posts
    1,352
    Redoine Faid: Paris helicopter prison break for gangster

    Surely keeping the guy after the first escape in solitary confinement with an armed guard and maybe with a net over the courtyard would deter
    such future escapes. A net would help with drones too.

    Not the first time it has happened either.
    Last edited by Meester; July 1 2018 at 05:12:29 PM.

  4. #1864
    Donor Spawinte's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    6,391
    Quote Originally Posted by Meester View Post

    solitary confinement
    This is Europe m8. You can't even keep serial killers in jail for a whole life term here as it's against their human rights.

    This guy was released in Ireland in 2012 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GUBU

    Also I saw this guy in my local supermarket a couple of weeks ago.

  5. #1865
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    in front of the class
    Posts
    14,401
    Quote Originally Posted by Spawinte View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Meester View Post

    solitary confinement
    This is Europe m8. You can't even keep serial killers in jail for a whole life term here as it's against their human rights.

    This guy was released in Ireland in 2012 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GUBU

    Also I saw this guy in my local supermarket a couple of weeks ago.
    You are wrong:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_imprisonment

    Life imprisonment is still very very common in Europe. Sure you often hear about how the "average" life sentence in Germany is 15 years but that is based on BS statistics and not being able to understand laws. Parole is a corner stone of Europe's legal systems, but it can and is regularly deferred and denied.
    nevar forget

  6. #1866
    Caldrion Dosto's Avatar
    Join Date
    November 19, 2011
    Posts
    2,227
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?

  7. #1867
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    in front of the class
    Posts
    14,401
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    nevar forget

  8. #1868
    Caldrion Dosto's Avatar
    Join Date
    November 19, 2011
    Posts
    2,227
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.

  9. #1869
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    in front of the class
    Posts
    14,401
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.
    He hasn't resigned yet. Throughout the night nobody knew what was going on. Our public broadcasters played it safe, others went "he's gone!"

    It looks like he offered to step down as well as handing an ultimatum to Merkel to fulfill his wishes. At the same time Merkel just did a lot of work to appease him. We'll see what is what in a few hours.

    Sure his party is part of a coalition, but it's also the CSU, which isn't a full party really. The CDU (Merkel) and CSU (Seehofer) are both conservative parties. The CDU doesn't run nor exist in Bavaria, the CSU doesn't run nor exist outside of Bavaria. They form a union of two parties.

    We don't do new elections when a minister steps down. It needs a break down of the coalition in major ways for that, and that almost never happens at the federal level. We love stability way too much to let it come to that.

    Now my own humble opinion:
    The CSU is a strong party with massive support in Bavaria, the largest, richest and second most populous state in Germany, that finances almost every other state. Yet it can't be that the CSU virtually holds the rest of the country at gunpoint whenever it faces an election in Bavaria.

    Tapapapatalk
    nevar forget

  10. #1870
    Caldrion Dosto's Avatar
    Join Date
    November 19, 2011
    Posts
    2,227
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.
    He hasn't resigned yet. Throughout the night nobody knew what was going on. Our public broadcasters played it safe, others went "he's gone!"

    It looks like he offered to step down as well as handing an ultimatum to Merkel to fulfill his wishes. At the same time Merkel just did a lot of work to appease him. We'll see what is what in a few hours.

    Sure his party is part of a coalition, but it's also the CSU, which isn't a full party really. The CDU (Merkel) and CSU (Seehofer) are both conservative parties. The CDU doesn't run nor exist in Bavaria, the CSU doesn't run nor exist outside of Bavaria. They form a union of two parties.

    We don't do new elections when a minister steps down. It needs a break down of the coalition in major ways for that, and that almost never happens at the federal level. We love stability way too much to let it come to that.

    Now my own humble opinion:
    The CSU is a strong party with massive support in Bavaria, the largest, richest and second most populous state in Germany, that finances almost every other state. Yet it can't be that the CSU virtually holds the rest of the country at gunpoint whenever it faces an election in Bavaria.

    Tapapapatalk
    Aha, ty very much for the information =)

    Our newspapers are starting to back peddle non the resigning part so guess they where shit as usual and jumping the shark.

  11. #1871

    Join Date
    May 31, 2011
    Posts
    4,155
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Fara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Politics Talk: European papers are predicting the end of Merkel with the failure of the refugee summit...
    BERLIN, 23 JUN - "Endzeit", "the time of the end".
    The cover of the Spiegel, released today in Germany, shows the hands of Angela Merkel, in the position with which she is now ironically identified for years (with the indexes and thumbs joined), and an hourglass that indicates the end of the approaching time. The German media are opening today on the ever more pressing risk of a failure of the refugee summit, which should save the Merkel government, from the ultimatum of Horst Seehofer. "For Merkel, time passes ...", headlines Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Bild makes a parallel with football: "nerve warfare for Loew and Merkel".
    ...
    It's gonna be interesting to see if Seehofer goes through with it or not now.

    He's kind of in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position, isn't he? If he gives in, he's going to take a hit to AfD in October (?). If he doesn't give in, he's going to blow up CDU<>CSU, and may still take a hit in October, and have a serious issue after October.
    This is like the 4th time Seehofer tries to play tough to appease voters in Bavaria but then backs down because he doesnt actually wanna risk his parties spot in the government. I am pretty certain this wont be any different. All the AFD has to do is not have their retards act too retarded and the established parties will play right into their hands with stuff like that v0v
    Still the majority of the vote in Bavaria will go to the CSU for tradition's sake. Not an absolute majority, but not enough to actually lose rule. They will either team up with the FDP or the SDP in the end. The AfD won't see numbers like they do in the East. How much they will get is actually something I'm curious to find out.
    And the strange thing is, which foreign people most likely don't know/realize, because it doesn't get mentioned a lot in international media: for the most parts, the CSU is more left-leaning than the CDU. Except immigration and "law and order".

  12. #1872

    Join Date
    July 3, 2014
    Posts
    4,050
    Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg reloaded.

    Horst Seehofer, the only German ( actually Bavarian ) politician who attempted to resist Angela Merkel has not been supported by his own party.

  13. #1873
    Miriam Sasko's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 10, 2011
    Posts
    854
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Fara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Politics Talk: European papers are predicting the end of Merkel with the failure of the refugee summit...
    BERLIN, 23 JUN - "Endzeit", "the time of the end".
    The cover of the Spiegel, released today in Germany, shows the hands of Angela Merkel, in the position with which she is now ironically identified for years (with the indexes and thumbs joined), and an hourglass that indicates the end of the approaching time. The German media are opening today on the ever more pressing risk of a failure of the refugee summit, which should save the Merkel government, from the ultimatum of Horst Seehofer. "For Merkel, time passes ...", headlines Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Bild makes a parallel with football: "nerve warfare for Loew and Merkel".
    ...
    It's gonna be interesting to see if Seehofer goes through with it or not now.

    He's kind of in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position, isn't he? If he gives in, he's going to take a hit to AfD in October (?). If he doesn't give in, he's going to blow up CDU<>CSU, and may still take a hit in October, and have a serious issue after October.
    This is like the 4th time Seehofer tries to play tough to appease voters in Bavaria but then backs down because he doesnt actually wanna risk his parties spot in the government. I am pretty certain this wont be any different. All the AFD has to do is not have their retards act too retarded and the established parties will play right into their hands with stuff like that v0v
    Still the majority of the vote in Bavaria will go to the CSU for tradition's sake. Not an absolute majority, but not enough to actually lose rule. They will either team up with the FDP or the SDP in the end. The AfD won't see numbers like they do in the East. How much they will get is actually something I'm curious to find out.
    And the strange thing is, which foreign people most likely don't know/realize, because it doesn't get mentioned a lot in international media: for the most parts, the CSU is more left-leaning than the CDU. Except immigration and "law and order".
    ...and they are more likely to let their bigots run wild with the C in their name.

    (In my book, anyone who keeps on harping about other's beliefs and their expression thereof is a bigot. Does that make me one? Maybe.)

  14. #1874
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    in front of the class
    Posts
    14,401
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg reloaded.

    Horst Seehofer, the only German ( actually Bavarian ) politician who attempted to resist Angela Merkel has not been supported by his own party.
    The fuck are you on about?

    Tapapapatalk
    nevar forget

  15. #1875
    Shaikar's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Location
    Kador
    Posts
    2,340
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg reloaded.

    Horst Seehofer, the only German ( actually Bavarian ) politician who attempted to resist Angela Merkel has not been supported by his own party.
    The fuck are you on about?

    Tapapapatalk
    He's doing the standard lunatic thing of fantasising about blowing up people he disagrees with because they're literally Hitler, while quailing in terror that there is nothing left to stop Merkel's Muslamic Panzer divisions from penetrating his weak, undefended borders.

  16. #1876

    Join Date
    May 31, 2011
    Posts
    4,155
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg reloaded.

    Horst Seehofer, the only German ( actually Bavarian ) politician who attempted to resist Angela Merkel has not been supported by his own party.

  17. #1877
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Posts
    7,745
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.
    He hasn't resigned yet. Throughout the night nobody knew what was going on. Our public broadcasters played it safe, others went "he's gone!"

    It looks like he offered to step down as well as handing an ultimatum to Merkel to fulfill his wishes. At the same time Merkel just did a lot of work to appease him. We'll see what is what in a few hours.

    Sure his party is part of a coalition, but it's also the CSU, which isn't a full party really. The CDU (Merkel) and CSU (Seehofer) are both conservative parties. The CDU doesn't run nor exist in Bavaria, the CSU doesn't run nor exist outside of Bavaria. They form a union of two parties.

    We don't do new elections when a minister steps down. It needs a break down of the coalition in major ways for that, and that almost never happens at the federal level. We love stability way too much to let it come to that.

    Now my own humble opinion:
    The CSU is a strong party with massive support in Bavaria, the largest, richest and second most populous state in Germany, that finances almost every other state. Yet it can't be that the CSU virtually holds the rest of the country at gunpoint whenever it faces an election in Bavaria.

    Tapapapatalk
    I wonder how long the CDU will agree with the CDU<>CSU agreement in Bavaria if the CSU actually goes through with tanking Merkel's government, simply because they're running scared of losing their absolute majority in Bavaria.

    Because I can well see the CDU running in Bavaria then.

    More realistically though, Seehofer will just resign, the CSU will put up someone else, who'll then, pro-forma, keep complaining loudly, but do nothing to ultimately destabilise/break-up Merkel's government. Which will then work hard to get the raft of measures just discussed/agreed in Brussels implemented.

    EDIT: It's getting harder and harder for Merkel to keep the ship steady though ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  18. #1878

    Join Date
    May 31, 2011
    Posts
    4,155
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.
    He hasn't resigned yet. Throughout the night nobody knew what was going on. Our public broadcasters played it safe, others went "he's gone!"

    It looks like he offered to step down as well as handing an ultimatum to Merkel to fulfill his wishes. At the same time Merkel just did a lot of work to appease him. We'll see what is what in a few hours.

    Sure his party is part of a coalition, but it's also the CSU, which isn't a full party really. The CDU (Merkel) and CSU (Seehofer) are both conservative parties. The CDU doesn't run nor exist in Bavaria, the CSU doesn't run nor exist outside of Bavaria. They form a union of two parties.

    We don't do new elections when a minister steps down. It needs a break down of the coalition in major ways for that, and that almost never happens at the federal level. We love stability way too much to let it come to that.

    Now my own humble opinion:
    The CSU is a strong party with massive support in Bavaria, the largest, richest and second most populous state in Germany, that finances almost every other state. Yet it can't be that the CSU virtually holds the rest of the country at gunpoint whenever it faces an election in Bavaria.

    Tapapapatalk
    I wonder how long the CDU will agree with the CDU<>CSU agreement in Bavaria if the CSU actually goes through with tanking Merkel's government, simply because they're running scared of losing their absolute majority in Bavaria.

    Because I can well see the CDU running in Bavaria then.
    This "threat" has been thrown around one way or the other since at least the Strauss (CSU) / Kohl (CDU) days. Maybe even earlier, but this one I experienced personally. Ever so often things get a lil hot and that alternative is discussed in the media. But I can't see how any of the two are pulling this off. Both are well aware that they would create a lose-lose situation for themselves.

    You need to keep in mind that there's a not-so-minor part of the CDU members (both minions and leaders), who actually agree with the CSU's stance here. Just not with the CSU's currently loudmouthy way of stirring things up over it. So even if Merkel would seek her "revenge" (not her style, though), it might be overruled by the respective party council.

  19. #1879
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
    Join Date
    April 9, 2011
    Posts
    7,745
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.
    He hasn't resigned yet. Throughout the night nobody knew what was going on. Our public broadcasters played it safe, others went "he's gone!"

    It looks like he offered to step down as well as handing an ultimatum to Merkel to fulfill his wishes. At the same time Merkel just did a lot of work to appease him. We'll see what is what in a few hours.

    Sure his party is part of a coalition, but it's also the CSU, which isn't a full party really. The CDU (Merkel) and CSU (Seehofer) are both conservative parties. The CDU doesn't run nor exist in Bavaria, the CSU doesn't run nor exist outside of Bavaria. They form a union of two parties.

    We don't do new elections when a minister steps down. It needs a break down of the coalition in major ways for that, and that almost never happens at the federal level. We love stability way too much to let it come to that.

    Now my own humble opinion:
    The CSU is a strong party with massive support in Bavaria, the largest, richest and second most populous state in Germany, that finances almost every other state. Yet it can't be that the CSU virtually holds the rest of the country at gunpoint whenever it faces an election in Bavaria.

    Tapapapatalk
    I wonder how long the CDU will agree with the CDU<>CSU agreement in Bavaria if the CSU actually goes through with tanking Merkel's government, simply because they're running scared of losing their absolute majority in Bavaria.

    Because I can well see the CDU running in Bavaria then.
    This "threat" has been thrown around one way or the other since at least the Strauss (CSU) / Kohl (CDU) days. Maybe even earlier, but this one I experienced personally. Ever so often things get a lil hot and that alternative is discussed in the media. But I can't see how any of the two are pulling this off. Both are well aware that they would create a lose-lose situation for themselves.

    You need to keep in mind that there's a not-so-minor part of the CDU members (both minions and leaders), who actually agree with the CSU's stance here. Just not with the CSU's currently loudmouthy way of stirring things up over it. So even if Merkel would seek her "revenge" (not her style, though), it might be overruled by the respective party council.
    Hmmm, interesting take. But I'm not so sure.

    Now, it will probably not come to pass. And I agree that it is mostly about the style, not so much the contents that's the issue.

    But, I believe that in Germany the old rule still applies: the party that blows up the government pays at the next (resulting) election.

    And in the what-if case, the CSU will be seen as having blown up the Merkel government, while the CDU will position itself as the stable party (upholding the old Prussian virtues etc. .

    And there would be plenty in both the CDU and the CSU pretty upset about it having happened. Perhaps upset enough to give up on the loudmouth CSU, and run for a Bavarian CDU instead? Instead of Merkel's revenge, you'd have soon-to-be-former-CSU politicians pressing the CDU party council to please let them run under the CDU banner to keep their seat at the table. It's not like there's much political difference beyond the logo (although, Bavarians ...). I'd say it would be hard to the CDU (party council) to resist the temptation then.

    I mean, if the choice is between keeping your seat with the CDU, or losing it with a damaged CSU, you'd wonder what they would do ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  20. #1880

    Join Date
    May 31, 2011
    Posts
    4,155
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Caldrion Dosto View Post
    Apparantly your minister of Interior actually resigned. So whats now? Elections?
    He hasn't yet resigned. At least he hasn't said so yet, and a lot of politicians are saying he shouldn't.

    And no, no new elections. We don't do that unless the chancellor resigns. Seriously, why would a resigning minister cause new elections? He'll be replaced by someone else in the CSU.
    Well in Sweden its being reported he resigned. Well he is teh leader of his party for one. If it was sweden him resigning would mean the party are withdrawing support from the coalition, but i dont know how you guys do this so hence my questions.
    He hasn't resigned yet. Throughout the night nobody knew what was going on. Our public broadcasters played it safe, others went "he's gone!"

    It looks like he offered to step down as well as handing an ultimatum to Merkel to fulfill his wishes. At the same time Merkel just did a lot of work to appease him. We'll see what is what in a few hours.

    Sure his party is part of a coalition, but it's also the CSU, which isn't a full party really. The CDU (Merkel) and CSU (Seehofer) are both conservative parties. The CDU doesn't run nor exist in Bavaria, the CSU doesn't run nor exist outside of Bavaria. They form a union of two parties.

    We don't do new elections when a minister steps down. It needs a break down of the coalition in major ways for that, and that almost never happens at the federal level. We love stability way too much to let it come to that.

    Now my own humble opinion:
    The CSU is a strong party with massive support in Bavaria, the largest, richest and second most populous state in Germany, that finances almost every other state. Yet it can't be that the CSU virtually holds the rest of the country at gunpoint whenever it faces an election in Bavaria.

    Tapapapatalk
    I wonder how long the CDU will agree with the CDU<>CSU agreement in Bavaria if the CSU actually goes through with tanking Merkel's government, simply because they're running scared of losing their absolute majority in Bavaria.

    Because I can well see the CDU running in Bavaria then.
    This "threat" has been thrown around one way or the other since at least the Strauss (CSU) / Kohl (CDU) days. Maybe even earlier, but this one I experienced personally. Ever so often things get a lil hot and that alternative is discussed in the media. But I can't see how any of the two are pulling this off. Both are well aware that they would create a lose-lose situation for themselves.

    You need to keep in mind that there's a not-so-minor part of the CDU members (both minions and leaders), who actually agree with the CSU's stance here. Just not with the CSU's currently loudmouthy way of stirring things up over it. So even if Merkel would seek her "revenge" (not her style, though), it might be overruled by the respective party council.
    But, I believe that in Germany the old rule still applies: the party that blows up the government pays at the next (resulting) election.
    ... which has never been the case. At least for Bundestag elections. My memory currently fails me a bit for state elections, though.

    And in the what-if case, the CSU will be seen as having blown up the Merkel government, while the CDU will position itself as the stable party (upholding the old Prussian virtues etc. .

    And there would be plenty in both the CDU and the CSU pretty upset about it having happened. Perhaps upset enough to give up on the loudmouth CSU, and run for a Bavarian CDU instead? Instead of Merkel's revenge, you'd have soon-to-be-former-CSU politicians pressing the CDU party council to please let them run under the CDU banner to keep their seat at the table. It's not like there's much political difference beyond the logo (although, Bavarians ...). I'd say it would be hard to the CDU (party council) to resist the temptation then.

    I mean, if the choice is between keeping your seat with the CDU, or losing it with a damaged CSU, you'd wonder what they would do ...
    Well, there's more to it. And it didn't start with the immigration debate in 2015.

    Over the years of her CDU presidency, Merkel has moved the CDU more and more from the right towards the center, in quite some cases even beyond the center and to the left. This has caused constant concern and grudge among quite a lot of CDU members. She also got rid off the "ruling" old-boys club referred to as "der Andenbund" ~ "(The) Andes covenant"*) of the CDU over time. Quite a couple of those guys were seen as potential future chancellors and were representatives of the CDU's right wing. True conservatives, not to be confused with nationalists. Though some couldn't resist and play the "fear of foreigners" card here and there e.g. at state elections.

    Fast forward to 2015 and that really caused a rift between her and her supporters and the conservative part of the CDU and the CSU. This also allowed for the AfD to rise. Lots of disgruntled former CDU voters, who swallowed their dissatisfaction before, because of the lack of an alternative, hopped over to the AfD. So did voters from the SPD and even die Linke, btw.

    In your scenario, I'd currently refrain from placing bets on any of the two parties. There's a real and deep rift within the CDU. And a split up of the current coalition could very well be followed by a split up of the CDU. E.g. Saxonia's CDU currently very much openly prefers the CSU's policies over those of Merkel. So in that hypothetical scenario, I could imagine them to swap the "D" for the "S" in the name. Others could follow.

    Also: don't underestimate the CSU. I'm not so sure that many CSU members would jump ship and switch over to a Bavarian CDU. That's quite a loyal bunch and such an open escalation could trigger a rally around the flag effect. TBH, I'd see more CDU members switch over to a now nation-wide CSU than the other way around, as there's currently just one thing that keeps 'em from not overthrowing Merkel: she wins elections.

    *) Nickamed so by the magazine DER SPIEGEL, because that group was allegedly formed 1979 during a flight crossing the Andes.
    Last edited by Hel OWeen; July 2 2018 at 05:05:22 PM. Reason: Typos

Bookmarks

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •