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Thread: Don't Panic, It's Just A Pandemic Thread

  1. #321
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Linear growth is fine; exponential growth is bad.
    It's really not... That's still ~7k by the end of the month, ~500k by the end of March ~30 million by the end of April.
    What is "I don't know the difference between linear and exponential growth".

    The number of cases in that graph look like they're doubling every two - four days. This is exponential growth.

    It looks like the rate of growth slows in week 2: which makes sense, that's the point it kinda becomes a big story.

    Edit: first 8 days it roughly doubles every 2 days (~10, 20, 40, 80), then continues linearly at ~ +20/day.
    Yeah, apologies I'm being a bit retarded. The 'rate' of new infections isn't increasing.
    And as long as that remains the case, things should be manageable. The question is whether the passage of time increases the odds of a containment fuckup or decreases it.

  2. #322
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Linear growth is fine; exponential growth is bad.
    It's really not... That's still ~7k by the end of the month, ~500k by the end of March ~30 million by the end of April.
    Then you’re describing exponential growth.

    The graph shows linear growth of about 30 cases a day.
    No it doesn't.


  3. #323
    Kai's Avatar
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    Way I see it is its a race between vaccine development and containment failure.

    Even on exponential timelines, 2% mortality rate of primarily the weak and infirm does not seem like anything approaching societal collapse numbers.

  4. #324
    mewninn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    Way I see it is its a race between vaccine development and containment failure.

    Even on exponential timelines, 2% mortality rate of primarily the weak and infirm does not seem like anything approaching societal collapse numbers.
    Those mortality rates should be taken with a big grain of salt anyhow. No one knows how many mild/unreported cases are floating around yet, but we know that they do exist.

  5. #325

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    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    The graph shows linear growth of about 30 cases a day.
    No it doesn't.
    After the first week or so, yes it does.

    Also, can we stop this nonsense with connecting lines in a scatter plot?

  6. #326

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucas Quaan View Post
    Also, can we stop this nonsense with connecting lines in a scatter plot?
    This is the real conclusion here.

  7. #327
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Totally Not Larkonnis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Linear growth is fine; exponential growth is bad.
    It's really not... That's still ~7k by the end of the month, ~500k by the end of March ~30 million by the end of April.
    Then you’re describing exponential growth.

    The graph shows linear growth of about 30 cases a day.
    No it doesn't.
    Go back to primary school, mate.

  8. #328
    Keckers's Avatar
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    How trustworthy are the number?
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  9. #329

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    The fun continues

    CCP says Wuhan coronavirus was created by the U.S. to attack China

    https://gnews.org/101782/

  10. #330
    mewninn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    How trustworthy are the number?
    Not very is my guess

    But I dont think its intentional this time. Just tough to keep track of if it's already flu season and it can feel like a cold or mild flu for young people

  11. #331
    Super Chillerator Global Moderator teds :D's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    The fun continues

    CCP says Wuhan coronavirus was created by the U.S. to attack China

    https://gnews.org/101782/
    why do you constantly post shit links? if you're going to throw an accusation like 'china accuses the US of making a bioweapon and then using it within china' at least fucking source something any of us have heard of

  12. #332
    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    The fun continues

    CCP says Wuhan coronavirus was created by the U.S. to attack China

    https://gnews.org/101782/
    why do you constantly post shit links? if you're going to throw an accusation like 'china accuses the US of making a bioweapon and then using it within china' at least fucking source something any of us have heard of
    But if that said russia you'd be all over it

  13. #333
    Paradox's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    The fun continues

    CCP says Wuhan coronavirus was created by the U.S. to attack China

    https://gnews.org/101782/
    why do you constantly post shit links? if you're going to throw an accusation like 'china accuses the US of making a bioweapon and then using it within china' at least fucking source something any of us have heard of
    But if that said russia you'd be all over it
    Awww poor little russia


    Poland treats me like shit and I hate them as a result of it

  14. #334
    Movember 2012 Elriche Oshego's Avatar
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    Difference is Russia would do something like that

  15. #335
    Approaching Walrus's Avatar
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    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...china-51403795

    The doctor who discovered it is dead. He was 34 and expecting a child.
    Last edited by Approaching Walrus; February 7 2020 at 08:00:41 AM.

  16. #336

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    He's credited with being the first to raise serious concerns with the virus.

    What was the PRC State Health Ministry's first reaction to his death? They denied it!

  17. #337
    Yankunytjatjara's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Approaching Walrus View Post
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...china-51403795

    The doctor who discovered it is dead. He was 34 and expecting a child.
    Oh wow. Poor guy. Despite being 34 and being given ECMO and all the care that the CCP could muster. His death is going to send a monkey wrench in the propaganda machine by falsifying the "only the weak and elderly die" message.
    My solo pvp video: Yankunytjude... That attitude!
    Solo/small gang proposal: Ship Velocity Vectors

  18. #338
    Super Chillerator Global Moderator teds :D's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    The fun continues

    CCP says Wuhan coronavirus was created by the U.S. to attack China

    https://gnews.org/101782/
    why do you constantly post shit links? if you're going to throw an accusation like 'china accuses the US of making a bioweapon and then using it within china' at least fucking source something any of us have heard of
    But if that said russia you'd be all over it
    no, not really. stop being a victim razor.

  19. #339
    mewninn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yankunytjatjara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Approaching Walrus View Post
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...china-51403795

    The doctor who discovered it is dead. He was 34 and expecting a child.
    Oh wow. Poor guy. Despite being 34 and being given ECMO and all the care that the CCP could muster. His death is going to send a monkey wrench in the propaganda machine by falsifying the "only the weak and elderly die" message.
    ok can you go into your little panic room or whatever and fuck off?

  20. #340
    Yankunytjatjara's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mewninn View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Yankunytjatjara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Approaching Walrus View Post
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...china-51403795

    The doctor who discovered it is dead. He was 34 and expecting a child.
    Oh wow. Poor guy. Despite being 34 and being given ECMO and all the care that the CCP could muster. His death is going to send a monkey wrench in the propaganda machine by falsifying the "only the weak and elderly die" message.
    ok can you go into your little panic room or whatever and fuck off?
    No.

    No it's obvious where the added risk came from. I'm talking about communication strategies.
    My solo pvp video: Yankunytjude... That attitude!
    Solo/small gang proposal: Ship Velocity Vectors

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