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Thread: Don't Panic, It's Just A Pandemic Thread

  1. #481
    Keckers's Avatar
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    I'm sure I heard somewhere that two thirds of Chinese men smoked. It'll be interesting to see if two thirds of the male fatalities were smokers or if the ratio of male:female deaths and smoking prevalence are correlated.
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  2. #482

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    I'm sure I heard somewhere that two thirds of Chinese men smoked. It'll be interesting to see if two thirds of the male fatalities were smokers or if the ratio of male:female deaths and smoking prevalence are correlated.
    With air pollution levels in CN cities does it even matter if you smoke or not?
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  3. #483

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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    Fact is the vast majority of those 454 were probably infected before the quarantine came into effect and were just asymptomatic until later on in the quarantine.
    This is not what in common parlance is called a fact.

    Japan imprisoned a couple of thousand people in what is the perfect breeding ground for infection, with no basis in rational thought. It's one of the most catastrophically stupid public health decisions any of us will see from a developed nation.
    And a viral expert who went on the ship itself said there were just admin/clerks on the ship but no medical staff nor any form of proper quarantine measurements.
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  4. #484
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    So apparently it’s loose in Iran. They reported two deaths today, and an indeterminate number of people quarantined.

  5. #485
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    And there are 621 cases from the cruise ship. That's, what, 20% of the passengers?
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  6. #486
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    You're almost making it sound as if the mandatory ship-wide morning group hug to keep up morale somehow inexplicably was a bad idea

  7. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    You're almost making it sound as if the mandatory ship-wide morning group hug to keep up morale somehow inexplicably was a bad idea
    That's why i always encourage group wanking instead. No touching but more intimate. Win win

  8. #488
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  9. #489

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    Soggy sandwiches for everybody to boost herd immunity!
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  10. #490
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    Good explainer about Diamond Princess with graphs and link to the Who report on it.

    https://theconversation.com/yes-aust...e-clock-131906

    Tl;dr Infection control on board broke down.

  11. #491
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    I've been doing some number crunching for a while now regarding the mortality rate, and I'm concerned.

    We've been told that the mortality rate is roughly 2-3%. It's an easy number to calculate: divide the total deaths by the total number of cases.

    76,718 cases
    2,247 deaths
    2247/76718 = 2.93% mortality
    The problem with this math is that it assumes everyone who hasn't died will recover. We know that won't be the case.
    76,718 cases
    - 2,247 deaths
    - 18,442 recovered =
    56,029 unresolved, or 73% of all cases
    The math does work when an epidemic/pandemic ebbs or ends, because pending cases have been resolved (death or recovery). But it doesn't work for ongoing outbreaks. Instead, let's calculate mortality another way. Infection results in a binary result: death or recovery. So, rather than do the calculation with a number whose outcome could go either way (total cases), let's look at the resolved cases.

    2,247 deaths
    18,442 recovered
    2247/(2247+18442) = 2247/20689 = 10.86% mortality
    I've been calculating this way since near the beginning, and the number has steadily fallen from the mid 40s, down to the 30s, but seems to have stabilized around 10-12% for the past two weeks. I expected the number to go down, and it did. But I also expected it to fall below 5% at some point. It still might, but I'm thinking it is leveling off.

    For a virus that kills only 3% of people, I expected a lot more people to have recovered by now...
    Last edited by Nordstern; February 21 2020 at 04:48:04 AM.
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  12. #492
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    That's not unlikely for a disease that kills faster than a person recovers from even mild cases. Remember that the vast number of infected are relatively recently infected: so they have had an opportunity to die but not an opportunity to recover.

    You need to account for median times from infection to death and median time from infection to recover otherwise you'll be over representing deaths.

    Example:

    If the day to die from the disease is Infection +1 day, the time to recover from Infection is +5 days and an R0 of 2 (assuming no incubation period and each transmission takes 24 hours).

    If on day X 100 people are infected, and on day x+1 2 people die and 200 new people are infected you'll have 2/300 cases assigned to mortality and 0/300 cases assigned to recovery. On day x+2 you have 700 cases, 6 deaths and 0 recovers. On d+3 it's 1500 cases, 10 deaths and still 0 recovers. It's not until d+5 you get 6300 cases 34 deaths and 98 recovers.

    This continues until you stop getting new cases.

  13. #493
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    I've heard that they suspect that mild cases are severely underreported, which might throw a wrench in your mathematics.
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  14. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    I've heard that Influenza A kills more people per year, in basically the same categories, spreads faster and easier, goes almost entirely unreported, and is not subject to 'pandemic panic'.

    Just wash your hands already, ffs.
    Were you watching/listening to CNN at ~noon today US EST?

    Because that's exactly what they were discussing. Their TLDR: The regular Flu is way way way worse than Coronavirus as of now.

    The fear is this novel coronvirus might change in unexpected ways since it is new.


  15. #495
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    Call back when as many people have gotten coronavirus as the flu.

    Coronavirus has a mortality-per-1000-cases rate that’s several orders of magnitude higher than common influenza. We’re talking a 2% mortality rate vs a .02% mortality rate.

    Yes flu has killed more people outright per year than the coronavirus has killed to date. That’s because hundreds of millions, or billions of people contract flu viruses every year.

  16. #496
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    Also flu/pneumonia have pretty nasty fatality rates once you are hospitalized for it. In the range of 5-10%.

  17. #497
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistair View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    I've heard that Influenza A kills more people per year, in basically the same categories, spreads faster and easier, goes almost entirely unreported, and is not subject to 'pandemic panic'.

    Just wash your hands already, ffs.
    Were you watching/listening to CNN at ~noon today US EST?

    Because that's exactly what they were discussing. Their TLDR: The regular Flu is way way way worse than Coronavirus as of now.

    The fear is this novel coronvirus might change in unexpected ways since it is new.
    only if you're a fool, the lethality of this thing is still undetermined and it's got a long tail because it takes quite a while to die or recover from the attendant symptoms, comparisons with the Spanish flu has been bandied about, though we have significantly better healthcare now, 100 years later.

    regular flu hits upwards of a billion people each year, it's total casualty numbers are going to be higher in a absolute sense and will remain so assuming continued containment, but it's looking less and less likely that containment will be achieved and once the number of people with it overwhelm the healthcare systems of the world the fatality rate is going to increase markedly.

    out of roughly 1 billion yearly flu infections 3-5 million people need treatment, the rest walk it off. Coronavirus looks to be roughly as virulent, but it's demand for healthcare is in the 10-25% range, not the 0.03-0.05% range.
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  18. #498
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    I suspect the coronavirus, if it behaves like the flu, will mutate and get into the general population and we'll have occasional outbreaks of it. That's the real worry, not that there would be some giant pandemic sweeping the globe but that it would be a permanent addition to the ecosystem.

  19. #499
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    That's not unlikely for a disease that kills faster than a person recovers from even mild cases. Remember that the vast number of infected are relatively recently infected: so they have had an opportunity to die but not an opportunity to recover.

    You need to account for median times from infection to death and median time from infection to recover otherwise you'll be over representing deaths.

    Example:

    If the day to die from the disease is Infection +1 day, the time to recover from Infection is +5 days and an R0 of 2 (assuming no incubation period and each transmission takes 24 hours).

    If on day X 100 people are infected, and on day x+1 2 people die and 200 new people are infected you'll have 2/300 cases assigned to mortality and 0/300 cases assigned to recovery. On day x+2 you have 700 cases, 6 deaths and 0 recovers. On d+3 it's 1500 cases, 10 deaths and still 0 recovers. It's not until d+5 you get 6300 cases 34 deaths and 98 recovers.

    This continues until you stop getting new cases.
    Valid points all, and you explained some of the statistical practices I've wondered about. I'm aware my model over-represents deaths, which is probably it's biggest flaw (another is that it's simplistic). I wish I had access to trends showing how long it took people to die or recover from the virus. But even that data would be flawed, since people are not receiving diagnoses at the same time after initial infection. Hopefully, people have learned to seek help at the first sign of trouble, and not wait for it to blow over.

    Quote Originally Posted by walrus View Post
    I've heard that they suspect that mild cases are severely underreported, which might throw a wrench in your mathematics.
    One of the reasons for my alternative facts math was to avoid suppression of some data. Governments are more likely to report recoveries (positive news) than total cases (bad news). But both models do rely on accurate reporting of deaths.
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  20. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    One of the reasons for my alternative facts math was to avoid suppression of some data. Governments are more likely to report recoveries (positive news) than total cases (bad news). But both models do rely on accurate reporting of deaths.
    ...or the logistics of tracking and confirming that many cases is impossible.

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