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Thread: Don't Panic, It's Just A Pandemic Thread

  1. #421

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    So if this isn't contained and it goes widespread before there's a vaccine.

    60% of the world's population at 1-2% mortality = 50-100 million.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lds-population

    That's on track to be the single deadliest historical event ever in absolute terms. But it'd wipe off only 1 years global population growth, and almost certainly will disproportionately negatively affect the global south.

    60% / 2% both seem to be the upper limits of sane projections, so realistically we're looking at <50 million total. Or as bad as Spanish Flu in absolute terms.

    That's a realistic upper bound of 300k deaths in Aus. Assuming the it displaces a lot of regular deaths and the 300k is an upper estimation, then assuming that 300k is approximately the total 2020 annual death toll if CV isn't contained. Or twice the normal annual death toll.

    That's a big number, but it's only 0.6% of the population who weren't going to die anyway. That seems within tolerances for social stability: horrifying, but not social collapse levels of catastrophic.
    Thousands are now reportedly affected outside of Wuhan and Heibei prefecture, i.e., in manifacturing centers like Guangdong etc. If it goes on like this, with no one trusting Chinese numbers anyway, very soon China will be bottled up, no one allowed out. So the vast majority of the deaths will occur in China.

    In other news: London's first victim took an Uber to the hospital, and then walked straight into emergency. Thanks moron! Couldn't wait to become a 'superspreader', could you? :sigh:
    There is no way all of China is going on lockdown. That's Candy Crush-level delusion.

  2. #422
    Kai's Avatar
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    First, I'd argue that the Mongols forging an Empire wasn't a single historical event but several.

    Second, most estimates put it under 50 million deaths. Proportionally much more devastating (~10% of the total global population), but absolutely less so.

  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    So if this isn't contained and it goes widespread before there's a vaccine.

    60% of the world's population at 1-2% mortality = 50-100 million.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lds-population

    That's on track to be the single deadliest historical event ever in absolute terms. But it'd wipe off only 1 years global population growth, and almost certainly will disproportionately negatively affect the global south.

    60% / 2% both seem to be the upper limits of sane projections, so realistically we're looking at <50 million total. Or as bad as Spanish Flu in absolute terms.

    That's a realistic upper bound of 300k deaths in Aus. Assuming the it displaces a lot of regular deaths and the 300k is an upper estimation, then assuming that 300k is approximately the total 2020 annual death toll if CV isn't contained. Or twice the normal annual death toll.

    That's a big number, but it's only 0.6% of the population who weren't going to die anyway. That seems within tolerances for social stability: horrifying, but not social collapse levels of catastrophic.
    aren't you forgetting co-factors here?

    the lethality goes up significantly without access to healthcare, severe cases require the use of respirators and even well funded healthcare systems do not have a large surplus of such systems and attendant ICU beds sitting around. beyond that there are of course the inevitable unrest that will come from enforced quarantine, travel restrictions and city-wide lockdowns.
    Probably, but I'm already way into rough guestimate areas so I assume that by using the upper figures for infection rate and mortality rate and rounding down that the errors cancel each other out.

    I think <1% population loss in a country with a modern, working health care system is probably a reasonably accurate assumption for the purposes of 'should I worry about systemic failures or just stockpiling TP and food so that if I get guarantined I have enough to get by' levels of analysis.

    And in terms of social unrest, China is probably in the worst spot for this: the whole mandate of heaven thing the CCP try to maintain, and the likelihood of consequential massive economic issues on top of pre-existing social unrest is a serious issue for them.

  4. #424
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Even a 1% rate in the US, where 75% of that 1% is folks over 60, would be pretty damned disruptive. And that’s just direct effects, to say nothing of the fact that American social trust would further erode.

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Even a 1% rate in the US, where 75% of that 1% is folks over 60, would be pretty damned disruptive. And that’s just direct effects, to say nothing of the fact that American social trust would further erode.
    And a lot of the rest being urban poor (so heavily minority). Not to mention the inevitable bankruptcies from the uninsured ill.

    I can see that being disruptive, and I can see it leading to change... But I'm still not seeing social collapse / revolution or the status quo being overthrown.

    Also, I was referring to countries with an effective health system. So I'm not sure why you brought America into it.

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lachesis VII View Post
    Even a 1% rate in the US, where 75% of that 1% is folks over 60, would be pretty damned disruptive. And that’s just direct effects, to say nothing of the fact that American social trust would further erode.
    And a lot of the rest being urban poor (so heavily minority). Not to mention the inevitable bankruptcies from the uninsured ill.

    I can see that being disruptive, and I can see it leading to change... But I'm still not seeing social collapse / revolution or the status quo being overthrown.

    Also, I was referring to countries with an effective health system. So I'm not sure why you brought America into it.
    Touché. Especially with der Führer cutting funding to the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization.

    But agreed, not a collapse event, or a revolutionary one. Just very disruptive and unpleasant.

  7. #427

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    All of the other seeds for unrest, like the wealth distribution and climate emergency, might combine and push us into a era of rapid social change.

  8. #428
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    All of the other seeds for unrest, like the wealth distribution and climate emergency, might combine and push us into a era of rapid social change.
    Well, certainly not outside China (where most of the dying is going on), and inside China Xi will never allow it.

    He'll gladly kill one times as many to maintain 'stability' (read: communist rule).

  9. #429
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    Has Barth picked up a brain eating amoeba from somewhere over the past couple of days
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  10. #430

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    All of the other seeds for unrest, like the wealth distribution and climate emergency, might combine and push us into a era of rapid social change.
    Well, certainly not outside China (where most of the dying is going on), and inside China Xi will never allow it.

    He'll gladly kill one times as many to maintain 'stability' (read: communist rule).
    China is just a richer North Korea : a dictatorship with a lot more money and better PR


  11. #431
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    All of the other seeds for unrest, like the wealth distribution and climate emergency, might combine and push us into a era of rapid social change.
    Well, certainly not outside China (where most of the dying is going on), and inside China Xi will never allow it.

    He'll gladly kill one times as many to maintain 'stability' (read: communist rule).
    China is just a richer North Korea : a dictatorship with a lot more money and better PR

    And the better PR is questionable ...


    they already had winnie the pooh assassinated

  12. #432
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    Update Diamond Princess 15.02.2020

    Numbers:
    quarantined since 3rd of Feb
    3700 souls on board
    218 infected
    1 Death reported

    Infection rate 5.89%
    Death rate 0,02%

    Again take any number with a grain of salt, these numbers reflect rates with a 100% quarantined environment. 100% will never be realistic in cities or any state.

  13. #433
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    There's no evidence that all 3700 have been exposed. Without that assumption your numbers are for shit.

  14. #434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    There's no evidence that all 3700 have been exposed. Without that assumption your numbers are for shit.
    That's what i am saying. The Diamond Princess is only an example what happens in a 100% quarantined environment. The numbers are a minimum rate in a close to perfect quarantine.

  15. #435
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    There's no evidence that all 3700 have been exposed. Without that assumption your numbers are for shit.
    That's what i am saying. The Diamond Princess is only an example what happens in a 100% quarantined environment. The numbers are a minimum rate in a close to perfect quarantine.
    They've been, and continue to be allowed up on deck every 2 days, they're mingling with each other and walking the halls on those trips. The ship is effectively quarantined from Japan, but those on board are not properly quarantined from each other.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarminic View Post
    Just for the record, "sending a needy text" is never the right answer.

  16. #436
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulip View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    There's no evidence that all 3700 have been exposed. Without that assumption your numbers are for shit.
    That's what i am saying. The Diamond Princess is only an example what happens in a 100% quarantined environment. The numbers are a minimum rate in a close to perfect quarantine.
    They've been, and continue to be allowed up on deck every 2 days, they're mingling with each other and walking the halls on those trips. The ship is effectively quarantined from Japan, but those on board are not properly quarantined from each other.
    with enforced distances and times managed to prevent contagion.

    if it's so virulent that it can jump the 2-3 meter gap they enforce quarantine is meaningless in the first place.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  17. #437

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    capitalism at work


  18. #438
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tulip View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    There's no evidence that all 3700 have been exposed. Without that assumption your numbers are for shit.
    That's what i am saying. The Diamond Princess is only an example what happens in a 100% quarantined environment. The numbers are a minimum rate in a close to perfect quarantine.
    They've been, and continue to be allowed up on deck every 2 days, they're mingling with each other and walking the halls on those trips. The ship is effectively quarantined from Japan, but those on board are not properly quarantined from each other.
    with enforced distances and times managed to prevent contagion.

    if it's so virulent that it can jump the 2-3 meter gap they enforce quarantine is meaningless in the first place.
    The ship accounts for almost half of all cases outside China. Quarantine, however half-assed it was, seems to have been the right move.
    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    WTF I hate white people now...
    Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Dashboard

  19. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tulip View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kai View Post
    There's no evidence that all 3700 have been exposed. Without that assumption your numbers are for shit.
    That's what i am saying. The Diamond Princess is only an example what happens in a 100% quarantined environment. The numbers are a minimum rate in a close to perfect quarantine.
    They've been, and continue to be allowed up on deck every 2 days, they're mingling with each other and walking the halls on those trips. The ship is effectively quarantined from Japan, but those on board are not properly quarantined from each other.
    with enforced distances and times managed to prevent contagion.

    if it's so virulent that it can jump the 2-3 meter gap they enforce quarantine is meaningless in the first place.
    The ship accounts for almost half of all cases outside China. Quarantine, however half-assed it was, seems to have been the right move.
    Apparently when you know where to look it's easy to find what you are looking for.

    https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regi...fter-bali-trip

    Indonesia continues to assert that it has no cases. It's a common travel destination from China, most (all?) other such destinations have had cases.

  20. #440
    Ski Boot Fortior's Avatar
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    Glad I’m living in Singapore. Every gym and office building has checkins for temperature and symptoms where they check your name written down to the Id you have, people know their shit and so on.

    Indonesia, not so much from my limited experience there.
    Real men pvp in barges.

    Quote Originally Posted by Amantus View Post
    good to see that Fortior seems like a decent bloke and isn't a gay fat faggot nerd despite his pony avatar

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