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Thread: Pestilence or: How I Learned to Worry Constantly and Live with COVID

  1. #1961
    Ski Boot Fortior's Avatar
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    Hoping for everyone to stay safe and healthy, especially the ones who are at risk somehow. Economically speaking I don’t think things will ever be the same after this, and this will be a very rough patch in the short term.
    Real men pvp in barges.

    Quote Originally Posted by Amantus View Post
    good to see that Fortior seems like a decent bloke and isn't a gay fat faggot nerd despite his pony avatar

  2. #1962
    GeromeDoutrande's Avatar
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    I made working from home mandatory (started offering it about a week ago) for the people in my (small) group yesterday and heroically declared that I would then be holding the fort in our (now otherwise empty) offices. This of course means that I can now do all the things that people do in post-apocalypse comedies. Am open to suggestions - first should probably naming an inanimate object and starting to talk to it?

  3. #1963
    Liare's Avatar
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    butt + copier = win
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  4. #1964

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    Quote Originally Posted by Approaching Walrus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Duckslayer View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Approaching Walrus View Post
    This crisis will make the need for UBI more apparent than ever
    When has the needs of the masses ever come before the needs of the elites, except for a brief decade after a world war
    Coronavirus might kill more people than WW2, especially in the USA.
    Imagine being in a global war where all we need to do to win is stay at home, eat a pack of noodles and watch Netflix and we're still somehow losing it.

    Italy hard time

  5. #1965

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    Were not losing, theres just no way to win either. It is what it is, it will get worse before it gets better.

    This reminds me of Caligula trying to fight the sea. Just stay out of the water until we have learned how to swim...

  6. #1966
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liare View Post
    butt + copier = win

  7. #1967
    evil edna's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    A study from Italy is showing more than half of the infected people are asymptomatic: https://www.repubblica.it/salute/med...02/?refresh_ce
    This is interesting and doesn't entirely make sense to me. Surely if by extension half the population can get it and be asymptomatic then numbers of infected wouldn't have slowed down to almost nothing in China, assuming China isnt just totally fabricating that, as asymptomatic infected would be passing the virus on through the distancing measures.

  8. #1968
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil edna View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    A study from Italy is showing more than half of the infected people are asymptomatic: https://www.repubblica.it/salute/med...02/?refresh_ce
    This is interesting and doesn't entirely make sense to me. Surely if by extension half the population can get it and be asymptomatic then numbers of infected wouldn't have slowed down to almost nothing in China, assuming China isnt just totally fabricating that, as asymptomatic infected would be passing the virus on through the distancing measures.
    I think China carried out a long lockdown of about half of the entire population. So if you are asymptomatic but in a lockdown zone, you have not been able to transmit Coronavirus either, because you were locked down for over a month. And you may have been a bit less contagious than symptomatic cases in the first place (since you don't cough all over the place for instance).

  9. #1969
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I made working from home mandatory (started offering it about a week ago) for the people in my (small) group yesterday and heroically declared that I would then be holding the fort in our (now otherwise empty) offices. This of course means that I can now do all the things that people do in post-apocalypse comedies. Am open to suggestions - first should probably naming an inanimate object and starting to talk to it?
    You definitely have to do the Risky Business shirt and socks thing through the empty building with a kicking 80’s soundtrack...
    meh

  10. #1970

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    China (and Italy, and Spain i think) follow a policy of a general quarantine, not just of those confirmed and those previously in contact.

    An asymptomatic infected will still follow a similar timetable as a symptomatic one. Maybe longer, maybe shorter, but at some point they will get it out of their system and develop antibodies.


    Unless i failed to understand your point?

  11. #1971
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil edna View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    A study from Italy is showing more than half of the infected people are asymptomatic: https://www.repubblica.it/salute/med...02/?refresh_ce
    This is interesting and doesn't entirely make sense to me. Surely if by extension half the population can get it and be asymptomatic then numbers of infected wouldn't have slowed down to almost nothing in China, assuming China isnt just totally fabricating that, as asymptomatic infected would be passing the virus on through the distancing measures.
    They've gone full totalitarian. When you can monitor and test literally everyone that the 1 symptomatic infected has interacted with you find even the asymptomatic ones and quarantine them, even if they have an essential job and would otherwise be out and about. Singapore and South Korea have done similar things with exhaustive testing regimes that are catching mild/asymptomatic cases and quarantining them.

    "Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.
    South Korea’s experience shows that “diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,” says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. “Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,” she says."

    That level of contact tracing is difficult to achieve for unprepared liberal democracies; and China's lockdown isn't replicateble in a liberal democracy.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...et-its-success
    Last edited by Kai; March 18 2020 at 02:45:48 PM.

  12. #1972
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    My thought was that even in a lockdown situation there still have to be people moving between areas to deliver food and supplies etc. and if those people are able to be infected but show no signs then the virus would keep popping up in new areas.
    May have underestimated how stringent China has been compared to what EU countries have been trying to do though.

  13. #1973
    Movember 2012 Stoffl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I made working from home mandatory (started offering it about a week ago) for the people in my (small) group yesterday and heroically declared that I would then be holding the fort in our (now otherwise empty) offices. This of course means that I can now do all the things that people do in post-apocalypse comedies. Am open to suggestions - first should probably naming an inanimate object and starting to talk to it?
    You definitely have to do the Risky Business shirt and socks thing through the empty building with a kicking 80’s soundtrack...
    Beaten because I couldn't find a proper linkable from mobile gif


    And if push comes to shove, office space

    MI8m8

  14. #1974
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil edna View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
    A study from Italy is showing more than half of the infected people are asymptomatic: https://www.repubblica.it/salute/med...02/?refresh_ce
    This is interesting and doesn't entirely make sense to me. Surely if by extension half the population can get it and be asymptomatic then numbers of infected wouldn't have slowed down to almost nothing in China, assuming China isnt just totally fabricating that, as asymptomatic infected would be passing the virus on through the distancing measures.
    It’s unclear whether “asymptomatic” in this context means “no symptoms yet, but contagious, and will eventually develop symptoms,” or “disease will run its course without the person developing symptoms.”

    There was an article in the NYT a few days ago saying “most transmissions caused by asymptomatic people, 86% of cases asymptomatic.” But if you went to the actual research paper, it was clear that what was meant was that transmission was occurring through people who are infected, not yet showing symptoms, but who will become sick to one degree or another in the near future.

    I also recall the WHO China mission finding that only about 1% of cases were truly “asymptomatic,” in that the carrier never developed noticeable symptoms.

  15. #1975
    evil edna's Avatar
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    That makes far more sense, and far more dangerous

  16. #1976
    GeromeDoutrande's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stoffl View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I made working from home mandatory (started offering it about a week ago) for the people in my (small) group yesterday and heroically declared that I would then be holding the fort in our (now otherwise empty) offices. This of course means that I can now do all the things that people do in post-apocalypse comedies. Am open to suggestions - first should probably naming an inanimate object and starting to talk to it?
    You definitely have to do the Risky Business shirt and socks thing through the empty building with a kicking 80’s soundtrack...
    Beaten because I couldn't find a proper linkable from mobile gif


    And if push comes to shove, office space

    MI8m8
    I feel ashamed to admit that I had not thought of this myself and hence my attire does not currently reflect requirements, but I will don a suitable pink shirt and white socks to the office tomorrow and complete this mission. A playlist containing Bob Seger's Old Time Rock & Roll has been created.

  17. #1977
    GeromeDoutrande's Avatar
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    Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb3221

  18. #1978
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb3221

    Bingo, that’s the study I was referencing.

    Overall, our findings indicate that a large proportion of COVID-19 infections were undocumented prior to the implementation of travel restrictions and other heightened control measures in China on 23 January, and that a large proportion of the total force of infection was mediated through these undocumented infections. This high proportion of undocumented infections, many of whom were likely not severely symptomatic, appears to have facilitated the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. Indeed, suppression of the infectiousness of these undocumented cases in model simulations reduces the total number of documented cases and the overall spread of SARS-CoV2. In addition, the best-fitting model has a reporting delay of 9 days from initial infectiousness to confirmation; in contrast line-list data for the same 10–23 January period indicates an average 6.6 day delay from initial manifestation of symptoms to confirmation. This discrepancy suggests pre-symptomatic shedding may be typical among documented infections. The relative timing of viremia and shedding onset and peak versus symptom onset and peak has been shown to potentially affect outbreak control success.

    Our findings also indicate that a radical increase in the identification and isolation of currently undocumented infections would be needed to fully control SARS-CoV2.


    Loose usage of the term “asymptomatic” by the media is not really helpful.
    Last edited by Lachesis VII; March 18 2020 at 03:02:20 PM.

  19. #1979
    Lowa [NSN]'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I made working from home mandatory (started offering it about a week ago) for the people in my (small) group yesterday and heroically declared that I would then be holding the fort in our (now otherwise empty) offices. This of course means that I can now do all the things that people do in post-apocalypse comedies. Am open to suggestions - first should probably naming an inanimate object and starting to talk to it?
    There better be a video of an office chair being used as a horse, flying down en empty hallway with you as a valiant knight to steer it right (into something that gets smashed).
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarminic View Post
    I would create a dragon made out of vaginas. Then I would create a dragon made out of dicks. Then I would have them fight to the death.

  20. #1980
    big diiiiiiiiick Movember 2012Donor Dark Flare's Avatar
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    RE: Half of positives testers being asymptomatic
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/
    Quote Originally Posted by Amantus
    whats tyhe appear of a shnitifuck cu nt eve onlio9ne corpotraTION DICKOLHEAD FUCKIN AS

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