Pestilence or: How I Learned to Worry Constantly and Live with COVID

[Dark Flare]

3.4 is rough. I'm also surprised, aren't SKorea's numbers wayyyy lower than that?

[Isyel]

3.4 is rough. I'm also surprised, aren't SKorea's numbers wayyyy lower than that?

https://coronamap.site/

Actual updated map with numbers in SK. Press tiny English button on popup for English.

Also yes.

[Lachesis VII]

3.4 is rough. I'm also surprised, aren't SKorea's numbers wayyyy lower than that?

SK's numbers are about 0.5%. But most cases are unresolved.

[Dark Flare]

3.4 is rough. I'm also surprised, aren't SKorea's numbers wayyyy lower than that?

SK's numbers are about 0.5%. But most cases are unresolved.

Yeah I guess it's quite "new" in S Korea. But 3.4 seems like a high estimate.

[Isyel]

Yeah I guess it's quite "new" in S Korea. But 3.4 seems like a high estimate.

It's not though. It's been a scare from the moment it started.

Also had a fucking cult spreading it.

[morpheps]

Currently, the publicly available data doesn't really lend itself to meaningful analysis of mortality. You can devide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases, but there are several issues with that:

• Relatively mild symptoms, actual number of cases may be under reported (most countries that don't have local transmission yet only tests those who report having been in countries with lasting local transmission or who have been in close contact with those who have)
• Numbers on a global scale (publicly available) doesn't contain information on how long the patients have been infected

There are other issues, but that's some. I'm sure WHO etc. have better data available, but it's not public. There are some datasets out there, but they're not complete yet.

Another issue is that we're most likely to see differing mortality between various groups based on age and those with other health issues.

First graph below shows the top 10 countries in terms of number of infected, with their respetive mortality rate and number of deaths / confirmed cases.

Second graph shows the same top 10 countries, this time with percent recovered and number of recovered / confirmed cases.

A note on the data: These numbers are from yesterday. It's hard to find curated datasets that have global numbers; the one I am using is pretty good in terms of quality, but they only publish data once a day. There's bound to be variations between sources; local newspapers tend to report fresher data than what is available through these channels.

Edit: For those wondering if aliens are infected (Others) that is currently not known, but in the dataset that is the data from Diamond Princess ship.

  Spoiler:

  Spoiler:

[Lachesis VII]

Is any of that a basis for doubting the director of WHO when he says that the mortality rate is >3%, and that there is likely not a mass of undetected subclincal cases out there?

[morpheps]

Short answer:
Not really no. If you look at Mainland China, it's at 3,6 % mortality rate. Currently, China makes up around 88 % of the cases, so numbers are going to be skewed in that direction.

Longer answer:
When I look at the overall data, it's at 2,8 % which means that currently the mortality rate outside China is way lower than in China. There are multiple possible explanations for that; first of all it originated in China, so if time is a factor in how long time it takes to kill a patient, that's surely an explanation (and it is a factor). Another might be the high degree of male chinese smokers.

I really don't know though; I'm not a doctor - I'm just looking at the available data. Italy though, has a mortality rate around 3 %, Iran has the same. South Korea is a bit special, the mortality rate there is much lower. So 3 out of 4 countries with local transmission has > 3 % mortality rate. Though, at least two of those might not be Tier 1 Healthcare systems? I don't know about Italy.

  Spoiler:

If you look at that graph, there's certainly a case to be made that the number of new cases in China dropping, and that new deaths are dropping somewhat. There's a steady increase in numbers of recoveries (which is to be expected). Does this mean anything? Not necessarily. Local transmission outside China, South Korea, Iran and Italy hasn't really taken off. Once that happens, and at least in Norway the public health people are expecting that to happen within the next few days, we'll see. China has seemingly managed to curb things; whether that's actually true or numbers are being dicked with remains to be seen. What happens in the rest of the world once local transmission starts remains to be seen.

[Sparq]

Australia

Coronavirus update: Toilet paper purchases limited as people stock up



Man who tested positive for coronavirus visited Launceston supermarket before self-isolating, authorities say

(what a dickhead)

Coronavirus numbers spike in Sydney as health authorities confirm another human-to-human infection

The Daily Terrorgraph running front page headlines now like 96,000 AUSSIES COULD DIE FROM VIRUS which is then recycled on their websites with IF THE RIGHT ECONOMIC DECISIONS AREN'T MADE (link) which is just typical. I hope Rupert Murdoch finally keels over from this thing. Every cloud a silver lining and all that.

Chinese company invents bat-like suit to protect from coronavirus

  Spoiler:

[Duckslayer]

fine then, if noone else is gonna do it i will.



3.4%? Not great. Not terrible.

Slackers

[Lachesis VII]

When I wrote in sick to work on Monday I wrote “Not feeling great. But not terrible.”

[mewninn]

[Lachesis VII]

[Spaztick]

stocked up on bogroll, best 14 bucks i ever spent

[Lachesis VII]

https://theweek.com/speedreads/89976...virus-briefing

More confidence-inspiring moves.

[morpheps]

Australia


Coronavirus numbers spike in Sydney as health authorities confirm another human-to-human infection

That is some quality reporting right there.

Coronavirus numbers spike in Sydney as health authorities confirm ANOTHER human-to-human infection.

OH NOES THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER CASE AAAAAH WE ARE DYING!

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said the woman had contact with 13 residents of the aged-care home, and that two of them subsequently reported respiratory symptoms.

One of those two residents, a 95-year-old woman, has died.

"Whether or not it was related to corona, we don't know at this point," Mr Hazzard said.

It's.. what.. I don't even.. ARE YOU EVEN TRYING TO DO THIS RIGHT?

[Sparq]

[Venec]

Or you could wash your asscrack with water :galaxybrain:

[Kai]

Or you could wash your asscrack with water :galaxybrain:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_Australia

[Venec]

Or you could wash your asscrack with water :galaxybrain:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_Australia

You can always lick it off

Or make your dog do it