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Thread: PLAGUE: Not even Best Korea is safe

  1. #5201

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    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812

    from the New England Journal of Medicine, apparently only the 4th time in 125ish years they have felt the need to write an Off ed

  2. #5202
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    So I got tested on Tuesday and was supposed to be informed of the result within two days. No call so far.

    Which is a good sign as in I'm not infected, which sucks as I'm still under quarantine.

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  3. #5203
    theBlind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    So I got tested on Tuesday and was supposed to be informed of the result within two days. No call so far.

    Which is a good sign as in I'm not infected, which sucks as I'm still under quarantine.

    Tapapapatalk
    Did you get an email with a qr code for a testing center? I got one of those and it also contained the link where I got my result a bit over 24h afterwards. That was during ebbing though, back in... Mai?
    Tanks: theBlind[URBAD] (in my heart there will always be a place for [FAIL])
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  4. #5204
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theBlind View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    So I got tested on Tuesday and was supposed to be informed of the result within two days. No call so far.

    Which is a good sign as in I'm not infected, which sucks as I'm still under quarantine.

    Tapapapatalk
    Did you get an email with a qr code for a testing center? I got one of those and it also contained the link where I got my result a bit over 24h afterwards. That was during ebbing though, back in... Mai?
    Nope.

    The whole thing is a result of a student being tested positive. We were sent home - or in my case all my classes were canceled and I was called by the school that I was under quarantine until the 20th. They then did a mass test of everyone involved at the school.

    I was supposed to be informed by phone.

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    nevar forget

  5. #5205
    Keckers's Avatar
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    Wales triggering a full lockdown as a 'firebreak' on a day they recorded 3 deaths. I wonder what forecasts they're making this decision on.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  6. #5206
    evil edna's Avatar
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    Presumably on their healthcare system being overloaded before the end of the year and the probable start of vaccination.

    Current deaths are obviously not a useful metric to look at for timing something like this as they lag far behind.

  7. #5207
    Keckers's Avatar
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    It'd be interesting to see how mortality rates differ between first and second spike in infections.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  8. #5208
    evil edna's Avatar
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    Should be considerably lower, even if theres no better treatment the second time around, just keeping it out of care homes would slash the deaths by a massive amount.

  9. #5209
    tulip's Avatar
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    Plus, those 50,000+ dead people in the UK that were mainly high risk aren't going to die again, checkmate virus!
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarminic View Post
    Just for the record, "sending a needy text" is never the right answer.

  10. #5210
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    So the new ceiling as to when a borough (Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen) or county (rest of the country) is considered a high risk region is 50 new infections per 100,000 residents over the last 7 days.

    Berlin as a city has broken that number last week.

    The county Berchtesgadener Land in Bavaria broke that number this weekend. The Bavaria has now released the new rules for the county. It's pretty much a full on lockdown:
    • stay at home unless going to work, necessary shopping or outdoor sports
    • schools and childcare are closed
    • shopping either alone or with a member of one's household
    • all public events are cancelled, except church service (it's Bavaria)
    • all entertainment venues, museums, gyms etc. are closed
    • only take out food
    • hotels can only host business travelers


    The county had a 7 day number of 252.1. And I thought Berlin-Neukölln was bad at 188.5.

    Btw. this is the Berchtesgadener Land.

    nevar forget

  11. #5211
    GeromeDoutrande's Avatar
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    Really great area for hiking, mountain climbing and rafting by the way

  12. #5212
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    Really great area for hiking, mountain climbing and rafting by the way
    Also for running the Third Reich...
    meh

  13. #5213
    Ruri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil edna View Post
    Should be considerably lower, even if theres no better treatment the second time around, just keeping it out of care homes would slash the deaths by a massive amount.
    https://www.alleghenycounty.us/Healt.../Covid-19.aspx

    Dunno how many places keep data available like this (if you really want to dig in you can specify your data set and download the numbers as a .cvs), but you can see what the overall age range of the deaths is, and measure the correlation between the peak of each spike in incidence rates and death rates. The first spike is relatively tiny but had a huge consequence in numbers of deaths - it was also extremely localized to a neighborhood with a large retirement home community, and indeed we see that 83% of all deaths have been in the age range of 70 years or older.

    The second spike was several times larger than the first, and synced up to people leaving for summer Memorial Day travels and returning from places with poor safety measures and bringing the virus with them. This was verified through contact tracing and demographic correlation. However, the death rate has never exceeded the high of the first spike, though it appears to be a bit more spread out and sustained.

    Fun tidbit, Allegheny County which is basically the city of Pittsburgh and it's surrounding asteroid belt of exurbs and farms, is doing comparatively well in terms of case load, but it is still an average of 20 times higher than the "high risk" threshold that Joe is describing in Germany. MURICA!

    edit: actually it's way worse than that, if Germany measures that number over a week, then we're closer to 140 times the number of cases per day. unless i'm reading our own data wrong which is entirely possible, it doesn't specifically state the daily total as "new" cases but even if they were ongoing the difference is still p. stark. according to the johns hopkins dashboard we're at 9.57 new cases per 100k.
    Last edited by Ruri; October 19 2020 at 09:43:39 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by QuackBot
    Do you even lift? Do you even post.

  14. #5214
    Keckers's Avatar
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    How many states are making it hard to collect any sort of meaningful data?
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  15. #5215
    evil edna's Avatar
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    Ireland going into a 6 week level 5 state which is essentially lockdown with schools open. Seems a little bit of an odd decision to go for that length of time to be honest but havn't followed their numbers too much.

  16. #5216
    Keckers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil edna View Post
    Ireland going into a 6 week level 5 state which is essentially lockdown with schools open. Seems a little bit of an odd decision to go for that length of time to be honest but havn't followed their numbers too much.
    What's Ireland's worker support like at the moment? I'd guess they're running a furlough scheme or equivalent.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  17. #5217

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    It'd be interesting to see how mortality rates differ between first and second spike in infections.
    For Germany, someone has put together this simulator in R: https://covid-simulator.com/en/simulator/

  18. #5218
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    Rant

    My quarantine is supposed to end today, meaning I can leave the house again tomorrow. However the quarantine is not ending automatically but after consultation with the health department. Today I got a call about my negative test result from my test last week. However they were not authorized to lift my quarantine. I then called the health department on the number on the letter they sent me about the quarantine. The guy answering the phone was also not authorized to do that. Instead I would get a call today (it's 4pm, fat chance) or tomorrow.

    Why does it need to be that complicated, can't the person informing about the test result also tell you that the quarantine ends the day it is supposed to end?

    /rant
    nevar forget

  19. #5219
    Jack Coutu's Avatar
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    Is there much else you can do besides the actions you've had to try already?

  20. #5220
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Coutu View Post
    Is there much else you can do besides the actions you've had to try already?
    The only thing is call tomorrow morning and demanding being transferred to someone who can make the decision. So in short, nope.
    nevar forget

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