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Thread: PLAGUE: An American Musical

  1. #3641

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    School thingys: Last week we started with our tenth graders (15-16yo): Math, German, English, two subjects of choice. Each taught in groups of 9 one subject a day for two periods. Our classes are usually about 27 students strong, we have 6 classes per grade, so at least 18 groups, sometimes even more. Due to room and distancing constraints this takes up about half the school during the day.
    This week we started with the 9th graders, taking up the rest of the school.
    The remaining students are in grade 7 and 8 and doing remote school/home schooling.
    Teachers are either teaching or watching students following the rules in the hallways etc (no cameras), some teachers belong to risk groups and do remote teaching stuff.

    All the planning for that took at least a week for the (acting) principal and the two (acting) vice principals. And then it took few days for the class teachers to inform parents and students about when to show up for the first day etc.

    Wednesday evening the education department for Berlin announced that the 7th graders will return to school next week, starting Monday the earliest. The press release was in the evening, the schools were informed in the afternoon.

    Friday is a public holiday.

    I'm quite tempted to go to the education minister's office and take a massive dump on it's doorstep. It seems fitting.
    On the one hand, nation wide, Germany's response to this shit has been leagues better than in the US.

    On the other hand, my dad's a school teacher, has been teaching remotely for the last 6+ weeks (which FUCKING BLOWS when you're basically a shop teacher for the really smart kids, because there's no way to remotely show someone how to use power tools) and has basically been told to get comfortable because they'll likely be working remotely in the fall too. The idea of sending the kids back to school while this is still raging seems genuinely insane.

    On the silver lining side, my mother has always resisted working remotely, but now that she's being forced to do so, and it looks like her work might encourage this some more even once things settle down, there's a chance she'll work 4 days a week in the office and then she can go to her (possibly happening in the future sometime) other house closer to her friends for long weekends with a day of remote work. So that could be cool.
    Quarantined and loving life.

  2. #3642
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    Silver lining is that quite a few colleagues I wouldn't have expected to are embracing remote teaching but also things like video conferences for staff meetings.

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  3. #3643

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    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...0to10april2020

    When allowance is made for health factors and deprivation, black people are still 1.9 times more likely to die from coronavirus than their white counterparts, the ONS says.

    Bangladeshi and Pakistani men are 1.8 times more likely to die from coronavirus than their white counterparts, even when health factors and deprivation is taking into account. Bangladeshi and Pakistani women are 1.6 times more likely to die from coronavirus.
    It's not looking to be as severe as age or some of the other associated health factors, but I think this is the first hard evidence I've seen that just being black or brown is enough to put one at massively higher risk of death.

    Before adjustment for poverty and suchlike black men are four times more likely than white men to die in the UK.

  4. #3644
    מלך יהודים Zeekar's Avatar
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    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?


    

  5. #3645

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholai Pestot View Post
    Rent would still be at 100% (but that stays even if you are closed)
    From our experience: try to negotiate the shop's rent with the landlord. We found that quite a lot of them are open to negotiations, given that the face the choice between collecting a lower rent or no rent at all, because the current renter goes out of business.

    Yes, some might immediately find a new renting party. But given the current recession basically across all commerce, that'll be the exception.

  6. #3646
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    It would be lovely if landlords ate the cost of this recession but the most successful parasites are those which survive through tough times.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  7. #3647

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    So those numbers are with poverty and most sociological factors removed. The raw number for a British black man for example is 4x a British white man.

    They did publish a fairly extensive appendix explaining the methodology. It is likely there are at least some sociological factors closely linked to race in play. This is because the probability of death is effectively a combination of both your probability of dying of the virus, but also your probability of getting the virus in the first place.

    Fundamentally we're still talking about comparatively small numbers of people, so it’s possible that sociological factors that don’t cross ethnic lines are driving up a big spike in the probability of getting the virus in the first place. A possible example of this is could be the tendency to attend religious services - compared to a mostly irreligious white population, 80% of muslims (who are mostly Pakistani) are practicing and black christians are 3x more likely to go to church than the average population. Likewise there's a much higher probability of living in a multi-member household in the Bangladeshi population. Similarly, the much higher prevalence of employment in transport in the black population may lead to second-order effects in terms of their increased exposure leading to increased exposure for their households and communities.

    Until we've done extensive serological surveys to figure out just how infected individual communities have been, and ideally how it spread within that community, we can't rule those effects out. However if that was the sole source of variation we'd see some significant geographical effects as well, which we don't, so it's probable there is at least some biological component to the difference.

  8. #3648
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    So those numbers are with poverty and most sociological factors removed. The raw number for a British black man for example is 4x a British white man.

    They did publish a fairly extensive appendix explaining the methodology. It is likely there are at least some sociological factors closely linked to race in play. This is because the probability of death is effectively a combination of both your probability of dying of the virus, but also your probability of getting the virus in the first place.

    Fundamentally we're still talking about comparatively small numbers of people, so it’s possible that sociological factors that don’t cross ethnic lines are driving up a big spike in the probability of getting the virus in the first place. A possible example of this is could be the tendency to attend religious services - compared to a mostly irreligious white population, 80% of muslims (who are mostly Pakistani) are practicing and black christians are 3x more likely to go to church than the average population. Likewise there's a much higher probability of living in a multi-member household in the Bangladeshi population. Similarly, the much higher prevalence of employment in transport in the black population may lead to second-order effects in terms of their increased exposure leading to increased exposure for their households and communities.

    Until we've done extensive serological surveys to figure out just how infected individual communities have been, and ideally how it spread within that community, we can't rule those effects out. However if that was the sole source of variation we'd see some significant geographical effects as well, which we don't, so it's probable there is at least some biological component to the difference.
    Calling it now; triage is racist



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  9. #3649
    Timaios's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    Could be several factors at play. Correcting for covariates (here: health factors and deprivation) in a sample where you're doing group comparisons between groups that are very different in size (e.g. the largest non-white ethnic group is Black, and there's less than 8% of that group than those with White ethnicity) easily leads to false positives. I'm not saying there's nothing there but when you see huge group size differences and significant results, read it with a grain of salt.

    I know it ONS data and they know their statistics. They do their best, this is just something that's inherent due to group sizes. There' some interesting data and other models behind the technical specifications link on the page you linked, if you want to see the effect of the covariates on mortality.

    Le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ne connaît point. - Blaise Pascal, Pensées, 277

  10. #3650
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    Quick, someone ask Lawrence Fox for his opinion on this
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  11. #3651
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    So those numbers are with poverty and most sociological factors removed. The raw number for a British black man for example is 4x a British white man.

    They did publish a fairly extensive appendix explaining the methodology. It is likely there are at least some sociological factors closely linked to race in play. This is because the probability of death is effectively a combination of both your probability of dying of the virus, but also your probability of getting the virus in the first place.

    Fundamentally we're still talking about comparatively small numbers of people, so it’s possible that sociological factors that don’t cross ethnic lines are driving up a big spike in the probability of getting the virus in the first place. A possible example of this is could be the tendency to attend religious services - compared to a mostly irreligious white population, 80% of muslims (who are mostly Pakistani) are practicing and black christians are 3x more likely to go to church than the average population. Likewise there's a much higher probability of living in a multi-member household in the Bangladeshi population. Similarly, the much higher prevalence of employment in transport in the black population may lead to second-order effects in terms of their increased exposure leading to increased exposure for their households and communities.

    Until we've done extensive serological surveys to figure out just how infected individual communities have been, and ideally how it spread within that community, we can't rule those effects out. However if that was the sole source of variation we'd see some significant geographical effects as well, which we don't, so it's probable there is at least some biological component to the difference.
    Just to continue, yeah, this. I like that both me and elmicker both went to technical specifications first.

    Le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ne connaît point. - Blaise Pascal, Pensées, 277

  12. #3652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    I hear a lot of talk its something as simple as vitamin D deficiency. Which does make sense since dark skin will not make enough vitamin D in northern latitudes. But who knows, maybe it's something complex about ACE receptors and biochemistry, maybe its 100% socio-economic. Its such a sensitive topic that I don't think we will ever know the truth.

  13. #3653

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    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    I hear a lot of talk its something as simple as vitamin D deficiency. Which does make sense since dark skin will not make enough vitamin D in northern latitudes. But who knows, maybe it's something complex about ACE receptors and biochemistry, maybe its 100% socio-economic. Its such a sensitive topic that I don't think we will ever know the truth.
    I could also very well imagine a cultural (by ethnicity) reason. I do remember a study about personal space, that concluded - non-shocker - in northern countries, on average people have a larger sphere of personal space they expect to be respected than in southern countries. An obvious indicator is the way people typically greet each other. A handshake - if any - in northern countries even with friends and family. Hugging and kissing, padding backs in the south. I.e. more social interactions = the chance for infection becomes higher.

    And as we all know, it's hard to break old habits, so even being intellectually aware of proper protocol (social distancing), habits might take over when it comes to this stuff. I know that I have a couple of habits which do expose me to infection, e.g. holding onto the railing when taking the stairs, grabbing the posts to swing around the corners. Or using my mouth as a 3rd hand, so I can spare e.g. an additional trip to the kitchen. I'm very well aware of these and ofc try to avoid them, yet I catch myself unconsciously e.g. reaching out for the railing at least once a day. Most of the time before I touch it, but sometimes not.

  14. #3654
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    I hear a lot of talk its something as simple as vitamin D deficiency. Which does make sense since dark skin will not make enough vitamin D in northern latitudes. But who knows, maybe it's something complex about ACE receptors and biochemistry, maybe its 100% socio-economic. Its such a sensitive topic that I don't think we will ever know the truth.
    I could also very well imagine a cultural (by ethnicity) reason. I do remember a study about personal space, that concluded - non-shocker - in northern countries, on average people have a larger sphere of personal space they expect to be respected than in southern countries. An obvious indicator is the way people typically greet each other. A handshake - if any - in northern countries even with friends and family. Hugging and kissing, padding backs in the south. I.e. more social interactions = the chance for infection becomes higher.

    And as we all know, it's hard to break old habits, so even being intellectually aware of proper protocol (social distancing), habits might take over when it comes to this stuff. I know that I have a couple of habits which do expose me to infection, e.g. holding onto the railing when taking the stairs, grabbing the posts to swing around the corners. Or using my mouth as a 3rd hand, so I can spare e.g. an additional trip to the kitchen. I'm very well aware of these and ofc try to avoid them, yet I catch myself unconsciously e.g. reaching out for the railing at least once a day. Most of the time before I touch it, but sometimes not.
    Would you even be alive today without the safety rail though. Years of fall protection. Really makes you think



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  15. #3655

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    Quote Originally Posted by Duckslayer View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    The fuck? Do they know what's the main factor except race?
    I hear a lot of talk its something as simple as vitamin D deficiency. Which does make sense since dark skin will not make enough vitamin D in northern latitudes. But who knows, maybe it's something complex about ACE receptors and biochemistry, maybe its 100% socio-economic. Its such a sensitive topic that I don't think we will ever know the truth.
    I could also very well imagine a cultural (by ethnicity) reason. I do remember a study about personal space, that concluded - non-shocker - in northern countries, on average people have a larger sphere of personal space they expect to be respected than in southern countries. An obvious indicator is the way people typically greet each other. A handshake - if any - in northern countries even with friends and family. Hugging and kissing, padding backs in the south. I.e. more social interactions = the chance for infection becomes higher.

    And as we all know, it's hard to break old habits, so even being intellectually aware of proper protocol (social distancing), habits might take over when it comes to this stuff. I know that I have a couple of habits which do expose me to infection, e.g. holding onto the railing when taking the stairs, grabbing the posts to swing around the corners. Or using my mouth as a 3rd hand, so I can spare e.g. an additional trip to the kitchen. I'm very well aware of these and ofc try to avoid them, yet I catch myself unconsciously e.g. reaching out for the railing at least once a day. Most of the time before I touch it, but sometimes not.
    Would you even be alive today without the safety rail though. Years of fall protection. Really makes you think
    You have no idea of how often I was about to fall down the stairs, because I tend to rush them down and my hand got stuck in there somewhere (because I'm stupid) ... so I most likely would be even more alive today.

  16. #3656
    Movember 2012 Stoffl's Avatar
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    Completely unrelated but I cannot have a train of thought and walk up stairs at the same time....the distraction makes me loose rythm and I end up trying to skip a step mid-step.
    Cue some shambling and stopping, gathering myself and keeping on keeping on.
    Guess I'm also retarded.

    truefax

  17. #3657
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    Stairs are probably too shallow for giants such as yourself.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  18. #3658
    Movember 2012 Elriche Oshego's Avatar
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    Stairs, the nemesis of the Germanic peoples.

  19. #3659
    Totally Not Larkonnis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stoffl View Post
    Completely unrelated but I cannot have a train of thought and walk up stairs at the same time....the distraction makes me loose rythm and I end up trying to skip a step mid-step.
    Cue some shambling and stopping, gathering myself and keeping on keeping on.
    Guess I'm also retarded.

    truefax
    At least you won't attract worms.


  20. #3660
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stoffl View Post
    Completely unrelated but I cannot have a train of thought and walk up stairs at the same time....the distraction makes me loose rythm and I end up trying to skip a step mid-step.
    Cue some shambling and stopping, gathering myself and keeping on keeping on.
    Guess I'm also retarded.

    truefax



    *roleplay

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