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Thread: Donald J. Trump's Sarcastic Clorox Vaccination (Coronavirus Pandemic) thread

  1. #3021
    Alistair's Avatar
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    Boris Johnson in the ICU

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...oxychloroquine

    Oh, I see it now in the UK Politics Thread.
    Last edited by Alistair; April 6 2020 at 09:42:37 PM.


  2. #3022

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    Sweden is trucking along anxiously at 477 dead so far.
    Kind of worried its going so slow. Most of the dead are in the capital city. Business owners, restaurant owners and such are complaining about the finances going down.
    Most people are taking it careful and not going out of their way to risk spreading it. Im going outdoors i make sure not to stay too long in the grocery store etc. And keeping 1-2 m distance when possible. The scary part is i dont know if i been infected or not and if i got a suckerpunch waiting for me down the line or if im going to stay healthy as i can with my 103 kg. In glad i dont smoke at least or got other ilnesses.

  3. #3023
    Movember 2012 Stoffl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Stoffl View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    Slovenia has both Germany and Austria beaten both on cases and deaths / million people. So does Croatia and Serbia. There are several factors innplay here not just how well funded is the healthcare system
    >implying those are real numbers


    Despite infecting half of Europe by way of ski based alcoholism we managed pretty well. Infection rate dropped off a cliff and is approaching 1. Much to the surprise of everybody our government acted somewhat quickly, competent and decisively.

    I'm also surprised about the German numbers since they kept flailing for an additional week or two.
    MI8m8
    Dont be jelly.
    Of what, Slavenia? Why would I?
    Similar conditions, starting point and reaction...so nbs.

    Numbers comment was aimed at lolsrbs and possibly Croatia.

  4. #3024
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    WTF I hate white people now...
    Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Dashboard

  5. #3025
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Eh, it's Novartis, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. It shouldn't be a surprise that they paid for access to the new president of the United States, especially since he had a healthcare reform (or rather: reversing a reform) on his agenda. Novartis and its subsidiaries produce over a thousand drugs. To claim that Trump is pushing a drug because its producer paid to talk to him four years ago is dumb as fuck.

    Don't attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. Trump early on heard that this drug works, he now pushes it whenever he can because it sounds like he has a grip on the situation.
    nevar forget

  6. #3026
    VARRAKK's Avatar
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    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  7. #3027

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    Is anyone familiar with the IHME? They just released a presser predicting a death rate in the UK vastly higher than any other prediction, so I did some digging into their numbers.

    Looking at their data for the UK for example it claims there are only 799 ICU beds available, this is versus a published normal capacity of something like 5000. It feels like they’re doing something completely daft like looking at a normal occupancy rate of about 80-90% and assuming that we are running at normal capacity levels, when the reality is the inverse; 90+% of capacity in hard hit areas is dedicated to covid right now, and supplemented by up to 8,000 additional Nightingale beds and a further c. 1000-1500 surge capacity from converting pacus and theatres, plus another chunk of private beds.

    Their predictions basically pivot on bed occupancy rates and simulating what happens if/when healthcare systems are overwhelmed - if they’re underestimating critical care capacity by as much as two orders of magnitude then their model is going to produce the wrong results entirely.

    Likewise their predicted deaths-per-day metric appears to be way off reality. They expected deaths-per-day to double from the 5th’s reported number of 623 to 1300 per day by the 6th. April 6th’s figure (it being yesterday - their model was last updated the 5th) was actually 439 - this is likely an under-report due to day-of-week effects, but the chances of it being an under-report by a factor of three are nearly nil.

    Basically their foundational data appear to be wrong and their model absolutely bonkers, but this looks like it's a bona fide research institution.

    At a quick glance looks like a similar pattern for NY as well - their predictions for “tomorrow” (i.e. yesterday) are out by huge factors.

  8. #3028
    GeromeDoutrande's Avatar
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    I took a quick look at the paper and they almost certainly use a measure of available beds as you have described and do not take into account measures to increase the number of available beds. This may be of some use for US states who have not yet taken any steps to increase capacity.

  9. #3029

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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Likewise their predicted deaths-per-day metric appears to be way off reality. They expected deaths-per-day to double from the 5th’s reported number of 623 to 1300 per day by the 6th. April 6th’s figure (it being yesterday - their model was last updated the 5th) was actually 439 - this is likely an under-report due to day-of-week effects, but the chances of it being an under-report by a factor of three are nearly nil.
    And just to continue that thought, today's increase is in the region of 758. IHME's model's headline prediction is more like 1200 again. So two days out of two being out by a factor of 1.5-2, putting us consistently at the very lower limit of their per-day confidence band and immediately off the bottom of their cumulative confidence band.

    Garbage model.

    Anyone want to guess which model the feds are using for their future planning in the US?
    Last edited by elmicker; April 7 2020 at 01:48:08 PM.

  10. #3030

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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post

    Anyone want to guess which model the feds are using for their future planning in the US?
    That could turn out to be a good thing. Might shock some of those politicians into action.

    But the more likely scenario is that they still don't do anything and when everything is said and done they get to say "I knew the experts were full of shit. We were only halfway to loosing 500 000 people"

  11. #3031
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Likewise their predicted deaths-per-day metric appears to be way off reality. They expected deaths-per-day to double from the 5th’s reported number of 623 to 1300 per day by the 6th. April 6th’s figure (it being yesterday - their model was last updated the 5th) was actually 439 - this is likely an under-report due to day-of-week effects, but the chances of it being an under-report by a factor of three are nearly nil.
    And just to continue that thought, today's increase is in the region of 758. IHME's model's headline prediction is more like 1200 again. So two days out of two being out by a factor of 1.5-2, putting us consistently at the very lower limit of their per-day confidence band and immediately off the bottom of their cumulative confidence band.

    Garbage model.

    Anyone want to guess which model the feds are using for their future planning in the US?
    At least they didn't tell anyone to ignore it and "build herd immunity" as a strategy.

    A bad model is better than terrible medical advice.
    meh

  12. #3032
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    Is there any mention of the 'deaths in the community' stat which will top up day to day data of hospital deaths with a delay?
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  13. #3033

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    looks like airline traffic is back to normal in China


  14. #3034
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    I have no benchmark for what normal air traffic in China looks like. You could tell me that's 1% of normal and I'd have no idea if you were correct.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  15. #3035
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    you're not supposed to ask questions, you're supposed to take it at face value and be angry at China because :lolsinofobia:

    the EU and US looks roughly the same from that level of zoom.
    Viking, n.:
    1. Daring Scandinavian seafarers, explorers, adventurers, entrepreneurs world-famous for their aggressive, nautical import business, highly leveraged takeovers and blue eyes.
    2. Bloodthirsty sea pirates who ravaged northern Europe beginning in the 9th century.

    Hagar's note: The first definition is much preferred; the second is used only by malcontents, the envious, and disgruntled owners of waterfront property.

  16. #3036

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    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I took a quick look at the paper and they almost certainly use a measure of available beds as you have described and do not take into account measures to increase the number of available beds. This may be of some use for US states who have not yet taken any steps to increase capacity.
    Looks like we weren't the only ones thinking this way:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08ec70cecec2a3

    A reader has emailed to warn that some caution may be necessary when looking at the shocking forecast by an American university that the UK could be in story for as many as 66,000 deaths from the Covid-19 outbreak. He writes.

    Their forecast is based on old data showing uk having 799 ICU beds (eg previous accepted number of 4000 minus the usual 4/5 occupancy level) so not accounting for any of the re-organisation and expansion within hospitals that’s been happening nor any of the temporary field hospitals.

    Also they say they could not get invasive ventilator numbers for uk and so seem to have put that figure at zero in their model.

    If you bung those numbers in of course it’s going to come out with a massive total of deaths.

  17. #3037
    Dorvil Barranis's Avatar
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    Wow, Western China looks really boring.
    "Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered, those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid. Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win." - Zhuge Liang


  18. #3038
    evil edna's Avatar
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    You mean tibet?

  19. #3039
    Keckers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I took a quick look at the paper and they almost certainly use a measure of available beds as you have described and do not take into account measures to increase the number of available beds. This may be of some use for US states who have not yet taken any steps to increase capacity.
    Looks like we weren't the only ones thinking this way:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08ec70cecec2a3

    A reader has emailed to warn that some caution may be necessary when looking at the shocking forecast by an American university that the UK could be in story for as many as 66,000 deaths from the Covid-19 outbreak. He writes.

    Their forecast is based on old data showing uk having 799 ICU beds (eg previous accepted number of 4000 minus the usual 4/5 occupancy level) so not accounting for any of the re-organisation and expansion within hospitals that’s been happening nor any of the temporary field hospitals.

    Also they say they could not get invasive ventilator numbers for uk and so seem to have put that figure at zero in their model.

    If you bung those numbers in of course it’s going to come out with a massive total of deaths.
    I'm guessing America has much less capacity to reorganise and expand their surge capacity due to lack of a proper public health body.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  20. #3040
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by elmicker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GeromeDoutrande View Post
    I took a quick look at the paper and they almost certainly use a measure of available beds as you have described and do not take into account measures to increase the number of available beds. This may be of some use for US states who have not yet taken any steps to increase capacity.
    Looks like we weren't the only ones thinking this way:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08ec70cecec2a3

    A reader has emailed to warn that some caution may be necessary when looking at the shocking forecast by an American university that the UK could be in story for as many as 66,000 deaths from the Covid-19 outbreak. He writes.

    Their forecast is based on old data showing uk having 799 ICU beds (eg previous accepted number of 4000 minus the usual 4/5 occupancy level) so not accounting for any of the re-organisation and expansion within hospitals that’s been happening nor any of the temporary field hospitals.

    Also they say they could not get invasive ventilator numbers for uk and so seem to have put that figure at zero in their model.

    If you bung those numbers in of course it’s going to come out with a massive total of deaths.
    I'm guessing America has much less capacity to reorganise and expand their surge capacity due to lack of a proper public health body.
    That, and ICU/Elder Life Extension beds have already been maximized as a ratio to normal beds because they are the most profitable.
    meh

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