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Thread: North Korean Nuclear Boogaloo

  1. #1621
    Donor Sparq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    Chinese control of the South China Sea and Taiwan are foregone conclusions, I think.
    The south sea, maybe. China obviously wants whatever is on/under the seabed there and will probably bully every other comer in the region to get it. Their real advantage isn't size & power alone, but the fact that every other claimant is as much out for itself as they are and therefore don't put up a cohesive counter.

    Taiwan is a completely different kettle of fish. I would put the stakes of gambling there with blood and treasure as being so high, just rolling the dice alone would cost them whatever gains they make in the south sea.

  2. #1622

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    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lana Torrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Overspark View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ruri View Post
    America's reputation is circling the drain
    This was already the case since Trump won the election, everything after that has just been additional confirmation and great source of amusement.
    To be fair its been slowly moving that way for quite a bit longer than that, its just the election kinda kicked it in to high gear.
    To be fair, I can't quite decide whether Trump is an absolute lunatic, a cunning strategist or both.
    None of the above, IMHO. He's a sociapathic narcist. All of his his actions are about "Me! Me! Me!". All of his reactions can be easily categorized in: 1) someone did something positive to him (in his opinion): he's quite charming. 2) Someone did something he perceived as negative to him: he goes on an insulting spree on Twitter.

    Trump cares about Trump, nothing and no one else.

  3. #1623
    Lana Torrin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparq View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    Chinese control of the South China Sea and Taiwan are foregone conclusions, I think.
    The south sea, maybe. China obviously wants whatever is on/under the seabed there and will probably bully every other comer in the region to get it. Their real advantage isn't size & power alone, but the fact that every other claimant is as much out for itself as they are and therefore don't put up a cohesive counter.

    Taiwan is a completely different kettle of fish. I would put the stakes of gambling there with blood and treasure as being so high, just rolling the dice alone would cost them whatever gains they make in the south sea.
    TBH china pretty much has the south china sea now.. Donnie hasn't done anything to stop them as he's being distracted by stars in his eyes.. It's almost like in all those meetings NK and China had the idea was to focus him on something he's going to care about (ie, himself) so they can get away with everything they want.
    Quote Originally Posted by lubica
    And her name was Limul Azgoden, a lowly peasant girl.

  4. #1624
    Super Ponerator Global Moderator Evelgrivion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    None of the above, IMHO. He's a sociapathic narcist. All of his his actions are about "Me! Me! Me!". All of his reactions can be easily categorized in: 1) someone did something positive to him (in his opinion): he's quite charming. 2) Someone did something he perceived as negative to him: he goes on an insulting spree on Twitter.

    Trump cares about Trump, nothing and no one else.
    If Trump cares about nothing but himself, he's the most schizophrenic failure of a President to simultaneously manage to attain the highest office in the land and become poorer in the process and as a consequence. Which is to say, this outlook doesn't actually make sense.

    Is Donald Trump egotistical? Spectacularly so. Is he selfish? Absolutely. Does he want other people to fail if it means he gets to the top? Outside of zero-sum matters like elections and games where only one person can win, it doesn't look like it. When people hang on his every word, a lot of people seem to miss that he doesn't keep a filter between his mind and his mouth, and not everything he says matters. It baffles me that after over two years of Donald Trump occupying a disproportionately large position on the world stage, people still don't have a clue how his playbook works:

    Step 1: Call out what he wants to address and prime everyone's expectations with a massive and unpalatable hook (Tariffs on everything, Fire and Fury with North Korea, etc)
    Step 2: Let the initial response stew. Stir as necessary (Rocket Man. Calling off the meeting).
    Step 3: After letting it simmer, throw a lifeline that sets out to accomplish what he really wants (peace talks with denuclearization).

    Today's announcement of a preliminary peace agreement framework will inevitably circle back to Step 2. If things get really ugly, they'll move in style and substance towards Step 1, before resuming course to Step 2 and 3 based on credibility and who is willing to play a better, strange, hybrid game of international Chicken and Lets Make a Deal.
    Last edited by Evelgrivion; June 12 2018 at 11:25:45 AM.

  5. #1625
    XenosisMk4's Avatar
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    >5 dimensional chess apologist

  6. #1626
    Djan Seriy Anaplian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    None of the above, IMHO. He's a sociapathic narcist. All of his his actions are about "Me! Me! Me!". All of his reactions can be easily categorized in: 1) someone did something positive to him (in his opinion): he's quite charming. 2) Someone did something he perceived as negative to him: he goes on an insulting spree on Twitter.

    Trump cares about Trump, nothing and no one else.
    If Trump cares about nothing but himself, he's the most schizophrenic failure of a President to simultaneously manage to attain the highest office in the land and become poorer in the process and as a consequence. Which is to say, this outlook doesn't actually make sense.

    Is Donald Trump egotistical? Spectacularly so. Is he selfish? Absolutely. Does he want other people to fail if it means he gets to the top? Outside of zero-sum matters like elections and games where only one person can win, it doesn't look like it. When people hang on his every word, a lot of people seem to miss that he doesn't keep a filter between his mind and his mouth, and not everything he says matters. It baffles me that after over two years of Donald Trump occupying a disproportionately large position on the world stage, people still don't have a clue how his playbook works:

    Step 1: Call out what he wants to address and prime everyone's expectations with a massive and unpalatable hook (Tariffs on everything, Fire and Fury with North Korea, etc)
    Step 2: Let the initial response stew. Stir as necessary (Rocket Man. Calling off the meeting).
    Step 3: After letting it simmer, throw a lifeline that sets out to accomplish what he really wants (peace talks with denuclearization).

    Today's announcement of a preliminary peace agreement framework will inevitably circle back to Step 2. If things get really ugly, they'll move in style and substance towards Step 1, before resuming course to Step 2 and 3 based on credibility and who is willing to play a better, strange, hybrid game of international Chicken and Lets Make a Deal.
    Stick to bumming ponies you thundering retard.

  7. #1627
    Lachesis VII's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by XenosisMk4 View Post
    >5 dimensional chess apologist

  8. #1628
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    None of the above, IMHO. He's a sociapathic narcist. All of his his actions are about "Me! Me! Me!". All of his reactions can be easily categorized in: 1) someone did something positive to him (in his opinion): he's quite charming. 2) Someone did something he perceived as negative to him: he goes on an insulting spree on Twitter.

    Trump cares about Trump, nothing and no one else.
    If Trump cares about nothing but himself, he's the most schizophrenic failure of a President to simultaneously manage to attain the highest office in the land and become poorer in the process and as a consequence. Which is to say, this outlook doesn't actually make sense.

    Is Donald Trump egotistical? Spectacularly so. Is he selfish? Absolutely. Does he want other people to fail if it means he gets to the top? Outside of zero-sum matters like elections and games where only one person can win, it doesn't look like it. When people hang on his every word, a lot of people seem to miss that he doesn't keep a filter between his mind and his mouth, and not everything he says matters. It baffles me that after over two years of Donald Trump occupying a disproportionately large position on the world stage, people still don't have a clue how his playbook works:

    Step 1: Call out what he wants to address and prime everyone's expectations with a massive and unpalatable hook (Tariffs on everything, Fire and Fury with North Korea, etc)
    Step 2: Let the initial response stew. Stir as necessary (Rocket Man. Calling off the meeting).
    Step 3: After letting it simmer, throw a lifeline that sets out to accomplish what he really wants (peace talks with denuclearization).

    Today's announcement of a preliminary peace agreement framework will inevitably circle back to Step 2. If things get really ugly, they'll move in style and substance towards Step 1, before resuming course to Step 2 and 3 based on credibility and who is willing to play a better, strange, hybrid game of international Chicken and Lets Make a Deal.
    People without the ability to filter their thoughts are generally not very bright. Maybe Trump's an exception, but all I currently see is a man who is fucking over all his supposed allies in favour of better relations with despots. Regardless of this, one thing I definitely also see is that quite a number of americans get all hot and sweaty with patriotic fervour when their president makes big noises and does big things. I remember the same attitude, especially towards Europe (remember Rumsfeld and his old and new Europe?) around 2003 when Cheney and co were stirring for the war that started the current round of shit in the middle east.

    The hypocrisy that is Trump's approach to Iran, as opposed to his approach to other countries with significantly less freedoms than Iranians have is also somewhat painful. Iran may be a basket case mix of religious zealotry combined with a large youthful population who would actually like to do something meaningful with their lives, a country that has been causing shit around the globe since the fall of the shah, but America's hate boner for their impudence of holding the hostages at the US embassy, supporting Saddam's genocidal campaign against them and even shooting down one of their airliners and never even apologising for it may have something to do with the Iranian fanaticism.

    Nobody suggested that sanctions be placed on the Saudis, whose money has paid for the deaths of tens of thousands in various terrorist acts. Nobody did much about North Korea killing someone in public with VX gas or abducting Japanese citizens.

    I know it's all a game of who has the most cash and power, and that just about no one is immune from its attraction, but it still is pretty awful.
    Будь смиренным, будь кротким, не заботься о тленном
    Власти, данной Богом, сынок, будь навеки верным...
    Я люблю Росcию, я - патриот

  9. #1629
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    Trump's first concern is what the media is saying about him.

    Hi second concern is what he can do next for the media to say something good about him.
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Mason
    It is absurd that we are capable of witnessing a 40,000 year old system of gender oppression begin to dissolve before our eyes yet still see the abolition of a 200 year old economic system as an unrealistic utopia.

  10. #1630
    Super Ponerator Global Moderator Evelgrivion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    People without the ability to filter their thoughts are generally not very bright. Maybe Trump's an exception, but all I currently see is a man who is fucking over all his supposed allies in favour of better relations with despots. Regardless of this, one thing I definitely also see is that quite a number of americans get all hot and sweaty with patriotic fervour when their president makes big noises and does big things. I remember the same attitude, especially towards Europe (remember Rumsfeld and his old and new Europe?) around 2003 when Cheney and co were stirring for the war that started the current round of shit in the middle east.

    The hypocrisy that is Trump's approach to Iran, as opposed to his approach to other countries with significantly less freedoms than Iranians have is also somewhat painful. Iran may be a basket case mix of religious zealotry combined with a large youthful population who would actually like to do something meaningful with their lives, a country that has been causing shit around the globe since the fall of the shah, but America's hate boner for their impudence of holding the hostages at the US embassy, supporting Saddam's genocidal campaign against them and even shooting down one of their airliners and never even apologising for it may have something to do with the Iranian fanaticism.

    Nobody suggested that sanctions be placed on the Saudis, whose money has paid for the deaths of tens of thousands in various terrorist acts. Nobody did much about North Korea killing someone in public with VX gas or abducting Japanese citizens.

    I know it's all a game of who has the most cash and power, and that just about no one is immune from its attraction, but it still is pretty awful.
    So, if I'm following this right, the crux of the argument here is that any progress on the issue of North Korea doesn't matter because :reasons:. Well, it's a better argument than most of the stuff I've seen here about Trump that basically amounts to regurgitating an impression and then calling people retards when the two perspectives are in conflict.

    Trump was elected for a desire to change the status quo, and shaking up everything. Existing economic agreements and outstanding international diplomacy concerns have unfortunate incidental timing, but there's little reason to infer a causal relationship between international diplomacy towards North Korea and Iran with wanting to eliminate the trade imbalances. I think things will get better for everyone in the long run, and we're in the middle of the ugly part of the realignment. If I'm wrong, well, he'll either be out of office by 2020 or 2024.
    Last edited by Evelgrivion; June 12 2018 at 06:13:46 PM.

  11. #1631
    XenosisMk4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    People without the ability to filter their thoughts are generally not very bright. Maybe Trump's an exception, but all I currently see is a man who is fucking over all his supposed allies in favour of better relations with despots. Regardless of this, one thing I definitely also see is that quite a number of americans get all hot and sweaty with patriotic fervour when their president makes big noises and does big things. I remember the same attitude, especially towards Europe (remember Rumsfeld and his old and new Europe?) around 2003 when Cheney and co were stirring for the war that started the current round of shit in the middle east.

    The hypocrisy that is Trump's approach to Iran, as opposed to his approach to other countries with significantly less freedoms than Iranians have is also somewhat painful. Iran may be a basket case mix of religious zealotry combined with a large youthful population who would actually like to do something meaningful with their lives, a country that has been causing shit around the globe since the fall of the shah, but America's hate boner for their impudence of holding the hostages at the US embassy, supporting Saddam's genocidal campaign against them and even shooting down one of their airliners and never even apologising for it may have something to do with the Iranian fanaticism.

    Nobody suggested that sanctions be placed on the Saudis, whose money has paid for the deaths of tens of thousands in various terrorist acts. Nobody did much about North Korea killing someone in public with VX gas or abducting Japanese citizens.

    I know it's all a game of who has the most cash and power, and that just about no one is immune from its attraction, but it still is pretty awful.
    So, if I'm following this right, the crux of the argument here is that any progress on the issue of North Korea doesn't matter because :reasons:. Well, it's a better argument than most of the stuff I've seen here about Trump that basically amounts to regurgitating an impression and then calling people retards when the two perspectives are in conflict.

    Trump was elected for a desire to change the status quo, and shaking up everything. Existing economic agreements and outstanding international diplomacy concerns have unfortunate incidental timing, but there's little reason to infer a causal relationship between international diplomacy towards North Korea and Iran with wanting to eliminate the trade imbalances. I think things will get better for everyone in the long run, and we're in the middle of the ugly part of the realignment. If I'm wrong, well, he'll either be out of office by 2020 or 2024.
    >Trump was elected for a desire to change the status quo

    yeah and he's really drained the swamp too hasn't he

    retard

  12. #1632
    Ruri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    So, if I'm following this right, the crux of the argument here is that any progress on the issue of North Korea doesn't matter because :reasons:.
    If you call "morally legitimizing a plainly murderous despotic dictatorship in exchange for them no longer imprisoning three Americans and making the same promise they've been making and breaking for 60 years" progress, well, sure. If you drive your car off a cliff, you're making "progress" towards the ground, I'm just not going to give either position much credit for being well thought-out or even particularly intentional.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuackBot
    Do you even lift? Do you even post.
    Quote Originally Posted by QuackBot View Post
    Ass ass ass.

  13. #1633
    Super Ponerator Global Moderator Evelgrivion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ruri View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    So, if I'm following this right, the crux of the argument here is that any progress on the issue of North Korea doesn't matter because :reasons:.
    If you call "morally legitimizing a plainly murderous despotic dictatorship in exchange for them no longer imprisoning three Americans and making the same promise they've been making and breaking for 60 years" progress, well, sure. If you drive your car off a cliff, you're making "progress" towards the ground, I'm just not going to give either position much credit for being well thought-out or even particularly intentional.
    So, does this mean you think nuclear war would be better, or that the status quo was acceptable? Have you even thought about the alternatives to the Obama era status quo towards North Korea at all?

  14. #1634
    thebomby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    People without the ability to filter their thoughts are generally not very bright. Maybe Trump's an exception, but all I currently see is a man who is fucking over all his supposed allies in favour of better relations with despots. Regardless of this, one thing I definitely also see is that quite a number of americans get all hot and sweaty with patriotic fervour when their president makes big noises and does big things. I remember the same attitude, especially towards Europe (remember Rumsfeld and his old and new Europe?) around 2003 when Cheney and co were stirring for the war that started the current round of shit in the middle east.

    The hypocrisy that is Trump's approach to Iran, as opposed to his approach to other countries with significantly less freedoms than Iranians have is also somewhat painful. Iran may be a basket case mix of religious zealotry combined with a large youthful population who would actually like to do something meaningful with their lives, a country that has been causing shit around the globe since the fall of the shah, but America's hate boner for their impudence of holding the hostages at the US embassy, supporting Saddam's genocidal campaign against them and even shooting down one of their airliners and never even apologising for it may have something to do with the Iranian fanaticism.

    Nobody suggested that sanctions be placed on the Saudis, whose money has paid for the deaths of tens of thousands in various terrorist acts. Nobody did much about North Korea killing someone in public with VX gas or abducting Japanese citizens.

    I know it's all a game of who has the most cash and power, and that just about no one is immune from its attraction, but it still is pretty awful.
    So, if I'm following this right, the crux of the argument here is that any progress on the issue of North Korea doesn't matter because :reasons:. Well, it's a better argument than most of the stuff I've seen here about Trump that basically amounts to regurgitating an impression and then calling people retards when the two perspectives are in conflict.

    Trump was elected for a desire to change the status quo, and shaking up everything. Existing economic agreements and outstanding international diplomacy concerns have unfortunate incidental timing, but there's little reason to infer a causal relationship between international diplomacy towards North Korea and Iran with wanting to eliminate the trade imbalances. I think things will get better for everyone in the long run, and we're in the middle of the ugly part of the realignment. If I'm wrong, well, he'll either be out of office by 2020 or 2024.
    I didn't know you were in favour of Trump, but stranger things have happened. Maybe you're right and maybe it'll all turn out to be great for everyone involved, but personally, I doubt it.

    But first things first: There would never be a nuclear war between North Korea and anyone. The only way North Korea would ever have used its nuclear weapons would have been if they were attacked. Anything else would have ended North Korea's existence. They know this. They may have something in common with Trump in that they make big loud noises, and they may be batshit crazy, but they're not dumb.

    You go on about Obama and his approach to North Korea, but how different was his approach to that of the Bush or Clinton administrations? Not much. The difference is that Trump wanted the media grandstanding that meeting Kim would give him, and the NK issue has mostly been a want to meet directly with the US over the years, which all other US administrations have refused. The issue with Iran is that there was actually an internationally ratified and working agreement on nuclear weapons development, and Trump just dropped it because Netanyahu and King Salman happen to be friends of his? No attempt at diplomacy there, or would you call it that? No attempt to actually get the fucking Saudis and Iranians to talk to one another. Just ratchet up the tension in the Gulf some more and pretend everything will turn out fine for everyone in the long run. That is either incredibly naive, given middle eastern history, or just plain denial.

    The "trade imbalance" is pure crap, and no one but the US' fault in terms of manufacturing. US software and IT companies are far and away the biggest in the world, and they have a huge "trade imbalance" just about everywhere. Should the EU or maybe China decide to tell Apple that its products now cost 25% more, in the interests of "fair trade"? There's a reason American cars sell just about nowhere outside the US. I'll leave it up to you to figure out why that is. The problem is that Trump's actions are forcing everyone to react in kind. No one is just going to roll over and take it up the bum, even if it hurts their own interests. How do you think that is going to work out? Do you think China will forget about it and just be nice? Do you think that making the Chinese lose face is a good thing? You don't think they're capable of reacting or willing to react?

    As I said, you might be right and everything will be fine, but it's like betting on the lotto, man.
    Будь смиренным, будь кротким, не заботься о тленном
    Власти, данной Богом, сынок, будь навеки верным...
    Я люблю Росcию, я - патриот

  15. #1635
    Caldrion Dosto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    People without the ability to filter their thoughts are generally not very bright. Maybe Trump's an exception, but all I currently see is a man who is fucking over all his supposed allies in favour of better relations with despots. Regardless of this, one thing I definitely also see is that quite a number of americans get all hot and sweaty with patriotic fervour when their president makes big noises and does big things. I remember the same attitude, especially towards Europe (remember Rumsfeld and his old and new Europe?) around 2003 when Cheney and co were stirring for the war that started the current round of shit in the middle east.

    The hypocrisy that is Trump's approach to Iran, as opposed to his approach to other countries with significantly less freedoms than Iranians have is also somewhat painful. Iran may be a basket case mix of religious zealotry combined with a large youthful population who would actually like to do something meaningful with their lives, a country that has been causing shit around the globe since the fall of the shah, but America's hate boner for their impudence of holding the hostages at the US embassy, supporting Saddam's genocidal campaign against them and even shooting down one of their airliners and never even apologising for it may have something to do with the Iranian fanaticism.

    Nobody suggested that sanctions be placed on the Saudis, whose money has paid for the deaths of tens of thousands in various terrorist acts. Nobody did much about North Korea killing someone in public with VX gas or abducting Japanese citizens.

    I know it's all a game of who has the most cash and power, and that just about no one is immune from its attraction, but it still is pretty awful.
    So, if I'm following this right, the crux of the argument here is that any progress on the issue of North Korea doesn't matter because :reasons:. Well, it's a better argument than most of the stuff I've seen here about Trump that basically amounts to regurgitating an impression and then calling people retards when the two perspectives are in conflict.

    Trump was elected for a desire to change the status quo, and shaking up everything. Existing economic agreements and outstanding international diplomacy concerns have unfortunate incidental timing, but there's little reason to infer a causal relationship between international diplomacy towards North Korea and Iran with wanting to eliminate the trade imbalances. I think things will get better for everyone in the long run, and we're in the middle of the ugly part of the realignment. If I'm wrong, well, he'll either be out of office by 2020 or 2024.
    I didn't know you were in favour of Trump, but stranger things have happened. Maybe you're right and maybe it'll all turn out to be great for everyone involved, but personally, I doubt it.

    But first things first: There would never be a nuclear war between North Korea and anyone. The only way North Korea would ever have used its nuclear weapons would have been if they were attacked. Anything else would have ended North Korea's existence. They know this. They may have something in common with Trump in that they make big loud noises, and they may be batshit crazy, but they're not dumb.

    You go on about Obama and his approach to North Korea, but how different was his approach to that of the Bush or Clinton administrations? Not much. The difference is that Trump wanted the media grandstanding that meeting Kim would give him, and the NK issue has mostly been a want to meet directly with the US over the years, which all other US administrations have refused. The issue with Iran is that there was actually an internationally ratified and working agreement on nuclear weapons development, and Trump just dropped it because Netanyahu and King Salman happen to be friends of his? No attempt at diplomacy there, or would you call it that? No attempt to actually get the fucking Saudis and Iranians to talk to one another. Just ratchet up the tension in the Gulf some more and pretend everything will turn out fine for everyone in the long run. That is either incredibly naive, given middle eastern history, or just plain denial.

    The "trade imbalance" is pure crap, and no one but the US' fault in terms of manufacturing. US software and IT companies are far and away the biggest in the world, and they have a huge "trade imbalance" just about everywhere. Should the EU or maybe China decide to tell Apple that its products now cost 25% more, in the interests of "fair trade"? There's a reason American cars sell just about nowhere outside the US. I'll leave it up to you to figure out why that is. The problem is that Trump's actions are forcing everyone to react in kind. No one is just going to roll over and take it up the bum, even if it hurts their own interests. How do you think that is going to work out? Do you think China will forget about it and just be nice? Do you think that making the Chinese lose face is a good thing? You don't think they're capable of reacting or willing to react?

    As I said, you might be right and everything will be fine, but it's like betting on the lotto, man.
    The funniest part of it all is that US lacks the industrial capability to replace all their now 25% more costly imports with domestic goods (short/medium term) that means Joe Schmo will pay more for same shit, whiles the money go to state coffers who give it away to the ultra rich.

  16. #1636
    Super Ponerator Global Moderator Evelgrivion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    I didn't know you were in favour of Trump, but stranger things have happened. Maybe you're right and maybe it'll all turn out to be great for everyone involved, but personally, I doubt it.

    But first things first: There would never be a nuclear war between North Korea and anyone. The only way North Korea would ever have used its nuclear weapons would have been if they were attacked. Anything else would have ended North Korea's existence. They know this. They may have something in common with Trump in that they make big loud noises, and they may be batshit crazy, but they're not dumb.
    They were never dumb, but the long term strategic concern has been forced reunification of the Korean Peninsula under North Korea's terms via nuclear blackmail, in addition to the threat of nuclear proliferation. The risk is great enough that they seem to have gone all in on resolving it peacefully, or risking nuclear war.

    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    You go on about Obama and his approach to North Korea, but how different was his approach to that of the Bush or Clinton administrations? Not much. The difference is that Trump wanted the media grandstanding that meeting Kim would give him, and the NK issue has mostly been a want to meet directly with the US over the years, which all other US administrations have refused. The issue with Iran is that there was actually an internationally ratified and working agreement on nuclear weapons development, and Trump just dropped it because Netanyahu and King Salman happen to be friends of his? No attempt at diplomacy there, or would you call it that? No attempt to actually get the fucking Saudis and Iranians to talk to one another. Just ratchet up the tension in the Gulf some more and pretend everything will turn out fine for everyone in the long run. That is either incredibly naive, given middle eastern history, or just plain denial.
    The Obama approach can be called the Bush/Clinton/Obama approach validly. I don't have as cynical an outlook on his purpose with North Korea, especially since this particular diplomatic crisis is actually looking resolvable with diplomacy.

    The Iran deal is a complicated subject. The best tl;dr on why it sucked is that a huge amount of carrot involved - literal planeloads of cash delivered to Iran alongside the full removal of sanctions, while having no proper enforcement mechanisms or disincentives for failure to stick to the agreement. It lacked teeth and gave too much because the US and Europe was much more interested in making a deal than Iran was, to an extent that the appearance of making one ended up being worth more than the actual result.

    Saudi Arabia seems to be in the middle of a complex reform in a more secular direction. Time will tell how it plays out, but from what I've seen of the crackdowns on the hardliners among the 300+ something princes of the Saudi Royal Family, Salman is doing right.

    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    The "trade imbalance" is pure crap, and no one but the US' fault in terms of manufacturing. US software and IT companies are far and away the biggest in the world, and they have a huge "trade imbalance" just about everywhere. Should the EU or maybe China decide to tell Apple that its products now cost 25% more, in the interests of "fair trade"? There's a reason American cars sell just about nowhere outside the US. I'll leave it up to you to figure out why that is. The problem is that Trump's actions are forcing everyone to react in kind. No one is just going to roll over and take it up the bum, even if it hurts their own interests. How do you think that is going to work out? Do you think China will forget about it and just be nice? Do you think that making the Chinese lose face is a good thing? You don't think they're capable of reacting or willing to react?
    My bet here is that he's playing hardball in the three-step process laid out above. I think his real aim is to eliminate tariffs entirely among the G7, but only once core domestic industrial capacities like steel making get a shot in the arm.

    Quote Originally Posted by thebomby View Post
    As I said, you might be right and everything will be fine, but it's like betting on the lotto, man.
    I'm hoping everything works out for the best, and I think I have good reasons to be hopeful. Time will tell, and hey, I can be completely off-base. Sometimes there's nothing to do but wait and see. With Trump, everything's a bit of a slow roll because he doesn't keep a lot of balls in the air at once, and focuses his attention and efforts on one priority concern at a time.
    Last edited by Evelgrivion; June 12 2018 at 07:26:54 PM.

  17. #1637
    Timaios's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Evelgrivion View Post
    The Iran deal is a complicated subject. The best tl;dr on why it sucked is that a huge amount of carrot involved - literal planeloads of cash delivered to Iran alongside the full removal of sanctions, while having no proper enforcement mechanisms or disincentives for failure to stick to the agreement. It lacked teeth and gave too much because the US and Europe was much more interested in making a deal than Iran was, to an extent that the appearance of making one ended up being worth more than the actual result.
    Are you serious?

    The Iran nuclear deal is harsh in terms of enforcement mechanisms. Clauses 74-78 of the treaty, google it.

    Basically, any site anywhere in Iran is fair play for sending investigators into. Iran can complain, and the complain have to be assessed, but if the majority of the signatories agree, investigators go in and have to be allowed in 3 days or Iran is in violation of the treaty.

    Le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ne connaît point. - Blaise Pascal, Pensées, 277

  18. #1638
    Super Ponerator Global Moderator Evelgrivion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timaios View Post
    Are you serious?

    The Iran nuclear deal is harsh in terms of enforcement mechanisms. Clauses 74-78 of the treaty, google it.

    Basically, any site anywhere in Iran is fair play for sending investigators into. Iran can complain, and the complain have to be assessed, but if the majority of the signatories agree, investigators go in and have to be allowed in 3 days or Iran is in violation of the treaty.
    Clauses 74 through 78 specifically address the IAEA's capacity to have eyes on Iran's activities. I'm not worried about those. What are the meaningful consequences of non-compliance?

  19. #1639
    Dorvil Barranis's Avatar
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    I believe the consequences of non-compliance is the reintroduction of sanctions. Which we have already done, removing a major incentive for Iran to adhere to the treaty.
    "Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered, those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid. Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win." - Zhuge Liang


  20. #1640
    Super Ponerator Global Moderator Evelgrivion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dorvil Barranis View Post
    I believe the consequences of non-compliance is the reintroduction of sanctions. Which we have already done, removing a major incentive for Iran to adhere to the treaty.
    That kind of approach still leaves the government of Iran walking away with a boatload of cash and a green light to perform some dual use activities openly in the process, which mostly gives them incentive to, at minimum, pretend to comply for a while even if they fully intend to go back to the status quo; they really don't have very much to lose by doing so. I suspect Donald Trump wants to make a deal with stronger enforcement terms than the Obama deal, so that it actually is a big deal for all parties if a violation takes place.
    Last edited by Evelgrivion; June 12 2018 at 08:35:39 PM.

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