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Thread: So... Iran...

  1. #1
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    So... Iran...

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...must-be-lifted

    Tentative Nuclear Deal In Hand, Iran Says All Sanctions Must Be Lifted


    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says his country will only sign an agreement restricting his country's nuclear program if economic sanctions are lifted. The remarks on state TV came as Iran's supreme leader said he's neither for nor against the deal.

    Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said that any arrangements must respect Iran's interests and dignity. He questioned the need for talks if they don't trigger the removal of sanctions, and he reiterated his distrust of the United States.

    From Istanbul, NPR's Peter Kenyon reports:

    "Today is national nuclear technology day in Iran, and President Hassan Rouhani used the occasion to tout Iran's nuclear achievements and to promote the framework for a nuclear agreement with six world powers, reached last week in Switzerland.

    "Both Iran and the U.S. have been emphasizing the most favorable aspects of the framework from their perspective, including on issues that have not been resolved, such as the scope and timing of sanctions relief for Iran.

    "Rouhani says Iran will only sign a deal if 'all sanctions are lifted the first day of implementation.' U.S. and European officials have been clear that sanctions relief will come after Iran's nuclear restrictions and other commitments have been made and verified.

    "In the same speech, Rouhani called for an end to airstrikes in Yemen."
    Speaking about those same issues later Thursday, Khamenei said he's "neither for nor against" the framework deal that was negotiated in a marathon session in Lausanne, Switzerland.

    "In a speech carried by state TV," Peter reports, "Khamenei says there is no agreement until every point is written down and signed, and thus no need for his approval or disapproval before then. He adds that he still supports his nuclear negotiating team, and still distrusts the United States and its allies."

    On Twitter, Khamenei elaborated on those ideas, saying of an American fact sheet about the agreement, "most of it was contrary to what was agreed."

    He continued, "They always deceive and breach promises."

    Why do hardliners always have to take the piss after so much work has been done? Making demands like this is just plain stupid. I mean, if you didn't want inspections and you're not budging on that point, then you should have said so at the beginning so both sides didn't waste their time. Now is the time for concessions, not additional demands.

    I think an NPR commenter put it quite well:


    Hardliners: We want all or nothing.

    Moderates: We can build a framework and work within it to develop mutual trust, but nobody is going to get all of what they want if this endeavor is to have any success. We owe it to the world to work out our differences.

    Hardliners: We want all or nothing.

    Moderates: Good grief. This is going to be a long day.
    ---
    Cast
    Hardliners played by: Netanyahu, Khamenei, Congressional Republicans
    Moderates played by: Everyone else
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  2. #2
    Donor Aea's Avatar
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    Send in a hardliner. Tell 'em they'll get the agreement as negotiated with no additional concessions from the US. Or they get the Israeli Air Force.

    I probably wouldn't make a good negotiator.

  3. #3
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    It's a delicate situation. If you cave to any more demands, you lose the support of your electorate. If you threaten annihilation of their leaders or military, you'll never get someone halfways as moderate as Rouhani elected again. If you actually follow through on the threat, it'll be the 70s/80s all over again with the Quds, only worse than Al-Qaida and ISIS combined.

    Personally, I think the agreement is too generous to Iran. I don't want any enrichment except at an internationally-run facility with foreign troops directly supervising. Other than that, the plan is okay.

    If the Ayatollah's current position is going to be Iran's position from now on, then we have two options. Scuttle the talks and walk away, or bully Europe into bringing their sanctions up to the level of the USA's to make Iran play ball.
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    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    bully Europe into bringing their sanctions up to the level of the USA's to make Iran play ball.
    Has west learned nothing in the past 70 years?

    Sanctions don't endear people in the slightest and you can't expect them to trust you after.

  5. #5
    Straight Hustlin's Avatar
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    Except we don't put sanctions on people to make them love us; we do it to give them some incentive to stop being asshats.

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    Rakshasa The Cat's Avatar
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    Is Russia intentionally trying to torpedo this deal by offering S-300's to Iran?

    If those missile systems get in Iranian hands, the hardliners on the US/Israel side will have more push to stop any deal. And the prognosis is that if sanctions are lifted Iran's oil would send the barrel down to some $40 or so...
    Are you an engineer? -- Quack

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    Rakshasa The Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight Hustlin View Post
    Except we don't put sanctions on people to make them love us; we do it to give them some incentive to stop being asshats.
    s:asshats:doing stuff we don't like:
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    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rakshasa The Cat View Post
    Is Russia intentionally trying to torpedo this deal by offering S-300's to Iran?

    If those missile systems get in Iranian hands, the hardliners on the US/Israel side will have more push to stop any deal. And the prognosis is that if sanctions are lifted Iran's oil would send the barrel down to some $40 or so...
    From what i understand it has become possible just recently wheh the embargo was lifted.

    Soviets did develop nuclear warheads for it and it's able to hit surface targets but seriously, come on.
    Last edited by RazoR; April 14 2015 at 09:33:11 PM.

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    Donor Aea's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rakshasa The Cat View Post
    Is Russia intentionally trying to torpedo this deal by offering S-300's to Iran?

    If those missile systems get in Iranian hands, the hardliners on the US/Israel side will have more push to stop any deal. And the prognosis is that if sanctions are lifted Iran's oil would send the barrel down to some $40 or so...
    Iran is selling oil to Russia now, Russia can re-sell and act as a middle man. Iran being de-sanctioned by the West would weaken that deal and reduce oil prices even further. Both are bad things for Russia.

  10. #10
    Donor TheManFromDelmonte's Avatar
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    that raises a question, how much of this push with iran is due to the US thining russia is now more of a threat to the US that iran's actions in the middle east?

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    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheManFromDelmonte View Post
    that raises a question, how much of this push with iran is due to the US thining russia is now more of a threat to the US that iran's actions in the middle east?
    This deal might be nothing more than Obama/Biden tiring of the House of Saud and saying "Well, Iran isn't much worse. Let's try detente and see what happens."
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    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheManFromDelmonte View Post
    that raises a question, how much of this push with iran is due to the US thining russia is now more of a threat to the US that iran's actions in the middle east?
    Not that much tbh.

    Iran was never much of a threat - it was an ideological enemy more than anything. The Irani government is pretty stable and the US is FINALLY beginning to realise that the Middle East has two modes - Strong authoritarian leadership or Jihadi Chaos.

  13. #13
    Frug's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    Sanctions don't endear people in the slightest and you can't expect them to trust you after.
    Cuba is getting over it.

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  14. #14
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frug View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    Sanctions don't endear people in the slightest and you can't expect them to trust you after.
    Cuba is getting over it.
    Japan got over it.
    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
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    Stable and Sane.

    Building most of your nuclear processing facilities underneath major cities was a smart move.
    Please don't teach me what to do with my pc.

  16. #16
    Larkonis Trassler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Itiken View Post
    Stable and Sane.

    Building most of your nuclear processing facilities underneath major cities was a smart move.
    Even a paranoid man has enemies. Iran's enrichment facilities got rekt without bombssome time ago...

    The Iranians are between Iraq and a hard place. They can attempt to develop their own independent civil program or buy 'off the shelf' like everyone else who's not in the G20. Either way they need to allow IAEA inspections of all of their facilities that they declare are for civil purposes (like the rest of the world).


  17. #17
    Rakshasa The Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    The Iranians are between Iraq and a hard place. They can attempt to develop their own independent civil program or buy 'off the shelf' like everyone else who's not in the G20. Either way they need to allow IAEA inspections of all of their facilities that they declare are for civil purposes (like the rest of the world).
    Only the grown up and responsible countries are allowed to have nukes...
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  18. #18
    Larkonis Trassler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rakshasa The Cat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    The Iranians are between Iraq and a hard place. They can attempt to develop their own independent civil program or buy 'off the shelf' like everyone else who's not in the G20. Either way they need to allow IAEA inspections of all of their facilities that they declare are for civil purposes (like the rest of the world).
    Only the grown up and responsible countries are allowed to have nukes...
    Just those who had them before ratifying the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (Iran signed it in 1968 and they didn't have the bomb then).

    India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea obviously never bothered.
    South Africa signed up after they got rid of theirs (coincidentally right after the end of apartheid).


  19. #19
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    A small fluff piece on Iran, now that sanctions are being lifted: http://www.npr.org/sections/parallel...rating-present
    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
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  20. #20
    Donor Tellenta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Khamenei also touched on Iran's nuclear ambitions, saying, "Islam & reason forbid us from acquiring nukes but nuclear industry is a necessity for country's future in energy, medicine, agriculture,etc."
    People keep saying that like Pakistan isn't an Islamic country.

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