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Thread: The Official Russian Politics Thread [NSFW]

  1. #3421
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    Budget cuts.
    meh

  2. #3422
    Sarp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.

  3. #3423

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.

  4. #3424
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  5. #3425
    Sarp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    The answer to that depends on whether you believe Russia has the influence that is alleged. If so, the payoff of years of competent espionage is ongoing.

  6. #3426
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    The answer to that depends on whether you believe Russia has the influence that is alleged. If so, the payoff of years of competent espionage is ongoing.
    What payoff?
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  7. #3427
    Sarp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    The answer to that depends on whether you believe Russia has the influence that is alleged. If so, the payoff of years of competent espionage is ongoing.
    What payoff?
    Really ?

    The erosion of rules based politics in the West.
    Division in Europe.
    Influence in Syria / Eastern Med.
    Prolonging internal stranglehold built on an aggressive West narrative. Key as effects of sanctions become protracted.
    A new arms race.
    Pressure on NATO.

    Etc.

  8. #3428
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    The answer to that depends on whether you believe Russia has the influence that is alleged. If so, the payoff of years of competent espionage is ongoing.
    What payoff?
    Really ?

    The erosion of rules based politics in the West.
    Division in Europe.
    Influence in Syria / Eastern Med.
    Prolonging internal stranglehold built on an aggressive West narrative. Key as effects of sanctions become protracted.
    A new arms race.
    Pressure on NATO.

    Etc.
    I asked about the payoff. Not the Russian wishlist. How has this actually paid off? And for whom?
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  9. #3429
    Sarp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    The answer to that depends on whether you believe Russia has the influence that is alleged. If so, the payoff of years of competent espionage is ongoing.
    What payoff?
    Really ?

    The erosion of rules based politics in the West.
    Division in Europe.
    Influence in Syria / Eastern Med.
    Prolonging internal stranglehold built on an aggressive West narrative. Key as effects of sanctions become protracted.
    A new arms race.
    Pressure on NATO.

    Etc.
    I asked about the payoff. Not the Russian wishlist. How has this actually paid off? And for whom?
    How is this a wishlist ? It's ongoing and everything above either benefits Russia financially, strategically or creates a power vacuum where once the West confidently called the shots.

  10. #3430
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bartholomeus Crane View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    What it does do is create a ( false ? ) narrative of TOTAL incompetence.

    This is very useful when accused of large scale political subterfuge throughout the West. Those not prone to critical thinking and relying on spoonfed media ' hot takes ' see a paradox of incompetence supported by in depth evidence trails and the supposed ability to control Presidents, multinational organisations and voting patterns with barely a whiff of evidence. To these people you can't have it both ways and they will always lean towards the path of least resistance - Russia ( GRU / FSB ) are just incompetent full stop.

    A very, very useful narrative for the Russians.
    Nah, i think they are just shit at espionage right now. Occams razor.
    Mostly because there's no really need for them to be better at it. Domestically they're protected, abroad they just deny everything.

    And no one cares about the consequences, because it's the ordinary Russians that pay for them. And their willingness to take the punishment is apparently limitless.

    Why be better at it?
    The answer to that depends on whether you believe Russia has the influence that is alleged. If so, the payoff of years of competent espionage is ongoing.
    What payoff?
    Really ?

    The erosion of rules based politics in the West.
    Division in Europe.
    Influence in Syria / Eastern Med.
    Prolonging internal stranglehold built on an aggressive West narrative. Key as effects of sanctions become protracted.
    A new arms race.
    Pressure on NATO.

    Etc.
    I asked about the payoff. Not the Russian wishlist. How has this actually paid off? And for whom?
    How is this a wishlist ? It's ongoing and everything above either benefits Russia financially, strategically or creates a power vacuum where once the West confidently called the shots.
    Explain to me how continuing and increasing sanctions have or will benefit Russia financially. Seriously, I'm interested.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  11. #3431
    Sarp's Avatar
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    Are you being obtuse on purpose ? Clearly they don't.

    However, selling arms to Syria and Libya, dividing Europe - See Germany's Gas deal do. Continued projection of soft power alongside China is giving a credible alternative to the West in trade. Especially in up and coming authoritarian regimes. Russia benefits here.

    Something that wasn't possible for Russia 8 years ago.

    I'm not sure what you're trying to do here Bart. I have neither the time nor patience to engage in protracted replies. State your point of view.

    Mine is that Russian influence has and continues to grow globally. They are benefiting both economically and strategically from that influence. Are they a threat economically like China ? Of course not. Are they a threat strategically? Absolutely.

    Strategic gains have come about through the breakdown in Western policy and soft power.

    How did the West arrive at this impotence ? Recession, 15 Years of War, with Russia backing many of the West's opponents and a sea change in Western politics encouraged ( manipulated ? ) by Russian influence.

    Degree's of which are open to debate.

  12. #3432
    thebomby's Avatar
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    On the other hand, their influence depends on a lot of little things, like Vlad the Putainer being alive and well, China being friendly, America being chaotic and Europeans chewing themselves up over internal matters. That and Russian activity not having a unifying effect on its traditional opponents. That last is now changing.
    Будь смиренным, будь кротким, не заботься о тленном
    Власти, данной Богом, сынок, будь навеки верным...
    Я люблю Росcию, я - патриот

  13. #3433
    Super Chillerator Global Moderator teds :D's Avatar
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    Sarp, meet Barth.

  14. #3434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    After reading the history of the KGB - "the Mitrohkin Archive" (spelling) you should read it - I can honestly say: apart from the 1930s they never were. But neither was the CIA - there's a book by Tim Weiner about its history.

    Tapapapatalk
    nevar forget

  15. #3435

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    After reading the history of the KGB - "the Mitrohkin Archive" (spelling) you should read it - I can honestly say: apart from the 1930s they never were. But neither was the CIA - there's a book by Tim Weiner about its history.

    Tapapapatalk
    So it was more a case of other people being even worse back then, rather than the Russians being good?
    As a firm believer in the general terribleness of people, i can both believe and appreciate this.

  16. #3436
    Joe Appleby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Appleby View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Caine View Post
    How is GRU so consistently incompetent? Russia used to be so good at this shit.
    After reading the history of the KGB - "the Mitrohkin Archive" (spelling) you should read it - I can honestly say: apart from the 1930s they never were. But neither was the CIA - there's a book by Tim Weiner about its history.

    Tapapapatalk
    So it was more a case of other people being even worse back then, rather than the Russians being good?
    As a firm believer in the general terribleness of people, i can both believe and appreciate this.
    During the Cold War it was even better: plans and missions went south because of incompetence or ignorance. However both sides claimed the other side was responsible for their failure. Or something randomly happened and each side claimed the other as the mastermind behind it. When you read both histories back to back and realize that the other side only jumped on some bandwagon, you start to question the effectiveness of large intelligence agencies.

    Especially when you realize how often the big ones only managed something because a smaller service from a smaller country did all the work.

    However both sides did have their successes at times. The CIA causing a massive pipeline explosion due to sabotaging the KGB's espionage was ingenious. The KGB recruiting uni students in the 30s and waiting for them to have very successful careers just showed, that 'just as planned' can be a thing and can take 20+ years.
    But these are outliers really.
    nevar forget

  17. #3437
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarp View Post
    Are you being obtuse on purpose ? Clearly they don't.

    However, selling arms to Syria and Libya, dividing Europe - See Germany's Gas deal do. Continued projection of soft power alongside China is giving a credible alternative to the West in trade. Especially in up and coming authoritarian regimes. Russia benefits here.

    Something that wasn't possible for Russia 8 years ago.

    I'm not sure what you're trying to do here Bart. I have neither the time nor patience to engage in protracted replies. State your point of view.

    Mine is that Russian influence has and continues to grow globally. They are benefiting both economically and strategically from that influence. Are they a threat economically like China ? Of course not. Are they a threat strategically? Absolutely.

    Strategic gains have come about through the breakdown in Western policy and soft power.

    How did the West arrive at this impotence ? Recession, 15 Years of War, with Russia backing many of the West's opponents and a sea change in Western politics encouraged ( manipulated ? ) by Russian influence.

    Degree's of which are open to debate.
    Clearly my position is that Russian influence hasn't grown globally, it has actually shrunk. Mostly because it worsening financial position vs the rest of the world. This is only unclear to some because Putin, and Russia have engaged in some opportunistic windowdressing, arguably successfully.

    For example, their engagement in Syria may look like to have been successful for Russia, as they now have more leverage in the middle east. But it has come at a massive cost in the 'soft diplomacy' department, and Russia no longer has the means to offset that. They've played though (Russia Strong), but that has only resulted in making them more of a pariah state. No one will ever trust either Putin or Russia with anything. Including China (to which Russia as become more and more like a supplicant; how is that for global influence).

    That the West have not stood up to Russia strongly enough during these years I don't dispute. What I do dispute is that Russia actions over the past 5 to 10 years have actually benefitted Russia, also when it comes to gaining global clout/influence. I just don't see it. For every supposed gain, they have had to pay a massive price elsewhere. All added up, as far as I'm concerned, they're still deep in the red. With no way out for Russia either (at least, not without losing even more face than it already has).

    Also, for all the chaos, the west is far less impotent than you suggest.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  18. #3438
    pesadelo's Avatar
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    So you think Russian soft power and diplomacy power has shrunk barth ?

    Because , allegations of USA/EU elections tampering, Ukraine, Syria war , killing personas non grata (even on foregneirs soil) using chemical weapons, supllying BUK missiles that shoot the Dutch civilian plain and using the oil pipeline to divide Germany vs the eastern EU block .

    What did it happen to them in terms of retribution?

    They are still in Ukraine,they have won the Syrian war,they allegedly had a part in Trump ascension, they allegedly financed most of the extreme right wing across Europe, they allied themselfs with Turkey, they will get the oil pipe,they continue to kill personas non grata abroad and in their own country , their oligarchs continue to live like kings in and out off Russia ..

    And they got the sanctions , and most of their diplos were expelled?

    Russia has a country in my opinion in the political scale is "wining" , maybe their own people are suffering, but I don't think Putin and the rest are very worried in their dachas.

    Enviado do meu SM-G900F através do Tapatalk

  19. #3439
    Bartholomeus Crane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pesadelo View Post
    So you think Russian soft power and diplomacy power has shrunk barth ?

    Because , allegations of USA/EU elections tampering, Ukraine, Syria war , killing personas non grata (even on foregneirs soil) using chemical weapons, supllying BUK missiles that shoot the Dutch civilian plain and using the oil pipeline to divide Germany vs the eastern EU block .

    What did it happen to them in terms of retribution?

    They are still in Ukraine,they have won the Syrian war,they allegedly had a part in Trump ascension, they allegedly financed most of the extreme right wing across Europe, they allied themselfs with Turkey, they will get the oil pipe,they continue to kill personas non grata abroad and in their own country , their oligarchs continue to live like kings in and out off Russia ..

    And they got the sanctions , and most of their diplos were expelled?

    Russia has a country in my opinion in the political scale is "wining" , maybe their own people are suffering, but I don't think Putin and the rest are very worried in their dachas.

    Enviado do meu SM-G900F através do Tapatalk
    Russia has no soft power and diplomacy power left. In that sense they are bankrupt.

    Let's face it, who will believe Putin if tried to get anything done, basically anywhere. No country in its right mind would.

    You talk about retribution. But what has that got to do with anything?

    The only thing left for Russia and the Putin maffia to get anything is brute force and intimidation. There are no other avenues for Putin left. You don't get very far with that, not even in the short term.

    Putin has turned Russia into the pariah of the global political scene. All their supposed successes are all Pyrrhic victories, that continue and will continue to bite them in the arse politically.

    How anyone can see that as 'winning on the political scale' is quite beyond me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    ...i have no idea whats realy going on...

  20. #3440
    GeromeDoutrande's Avatar
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    So true!

    P.S.: Let's not face it, so please do not look at any of the links below guys.

    War games and business deals: Russia, China send a signal to Washington
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...=.527b192bb710

    Russian arms deal with India comes as Pentagon changing military priorities
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/07/p...les/index.html

    Russia and Turkey agree to create buffer zone in Syria's Idlib
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKCN1LX1BU

    In Germany, Construction Has Begun On Controversial New Russian Gas Pipeline
    https://www.npr.org/2018/09/10/64496...=1539006890743

    Pro-Russia party wins Latvia election
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45774578

    Pakistan, Russia to ink $10 billion offshore pipeline deal
    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1811503...pipeline-deal/

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