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Thread: Jihadist Caliphate LLC. Extremist Thunderdome's everywhere.

  1. #19421
    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Israel's nukes are not first strike weapons, they are if we are going down we are taking you all to hell with us weapons.
    You sound too much like a sane person. Please reevaluate your posting.

  2. #19422
    Donor Sparq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    When I say that Israel doesn't have the capacity I mean that they don't have the ability to be guaranteed to wipe out all of Iran's nuclear program or weapons with a conventional or nuclear strike. Israel is geographically compact so a single nuke hitting them will do far more damage and a few nukes hitting Iran.
    Well mate, I think you're as guilty of wishful thinking as much as the Israelis will be when they glass wherever it is they think the Iranians have stashed their bombs - if & when that day comes, if & when they don't think conventional weapons will succeed. I mean, there are caveats that would have to be met to see such an implementation.

    If there ever has to be a strike, the best-case scenario is that Israeli security services get tipped prior to any devices leaving assembly & being dispersed. A concentrated conventional attack could do the job just as reliably as they have done so to date. Recall this isn't happening in isolation, we're talking about a pattern of behavior with evidence to back it up.

    If the Iranians can achieve dispersal to hardened sites, then the risk of Israel resorting to a limited nuclear strike ramps up dramatically.

    About the worst possible scenario is Iran proceeding with their program to the point they can demonstrate a successful test within their own borders without Israeli foreknowledge, at which point the Israeli government of the day will find itself both caught by surprise and under intense domestic pressure to immediately strike all suspected program locations to preempt the Iranians.

    The susceptibility of Israel to WMD attack is exactly what has driven their doctrine of forceful counter-proliferation. This same susceptibility may - in part, rightly or wrongly - also drive them to hitting what might be a nail with a wrecking ball.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    It would also start a Israel vs. all of Islam war they would not win.
    That's debatable, in my opinion. They've held off combined attacks from their neighbors in the past. Undoubtedly they'd could be severely bloodied if everyone else got their acts together - but you're counting on the rest of the Islamic world being zealously protective of a handful of former Iranian industrial sites and not secretly relieved that it wasn't them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Israel's nukes are not first strike weapons, they are if we are going down we are taking you all to hell with us weapons.
    You (and I) might see it that way, since we've almost all of us enjoyed not seeing a nuclear weapon used in anger in our lifetime - but there is a school of thought that they're a tool with which to do a job, even if it means burning down the other guys' tool factory.
    Last edited by Sparq; February 12 2018 at 04:45:32 AM.

  3. #19423
    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparq View Post
    You (and I) might see it that way, since we've almost all of us enjoyed not seeing a nuclear weapon used in anger in our lifetime - but there is a school of thought that they're a tool with which to do a job, even if it means burning down the other guys' tool factory.
    Except there are also 100 other guys that could make you choke on (conventional) tools.
    Last edited by RazoR; February 12 2018 at 04:53:14 AM.

  4. #19424
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    Israel faces the same problem that the USA faces with North Korea - if you launch a first strike and you miss just one nuke then that nuke is coming back at you. Not to mention all the convention weapons that Hezbollah keeps just across the border.

    It's that stark and that simple.

    And Israel nuking Iran would be about the only thing that would united the Islamic world.

  5. #19425
    Caldrion Dosto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Israel faces the same problem that the USA faces with North Korea - if you launch a first strike and you miss just one nuke then that nuke is coming back at you. Not to mention all the convention weapons that Hezbollah keeps just across the border.

    It's that stark and that simple.

    And Israel nuking Iran would be about the only thing that would united the Islamic world.
    Its all pretty fucking simple. Iran does in fact NOT have nukes. Their life insurance that also happens to not land them under sanctions to the stone age is Hezbollah.

    Why on earth do you think they invested so much into missiles and hardened construction in Lebanon?

  6. #19426
    Donor Sparq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparq View Post
    You (and I) might see it that way, since we've almost all of us enjoyed not seeing a nuclear weapon used in anger in our lifetime - but there is a school of thought that they're a tool with which to do a job, even if it means burning down the other guys' tool factory.
    Except there are also 100 other guys that could make you choke on (conventional) tools.
    Okay, cool.

    Now riddle me this, who exactly is going to go full MAD on Israel (with conventional weapons, no less) for launching a limited nuclear strike on Iran to forcefully apply counter-proliferation?

    Just to clarify, at no point have I said Israel could or should commit nuclear genocide by going after cities or launching total attacks. I've talked about them having the potential to escalate their policy by destroying things like factories or perhaps military airfields where they knew Iran has nuclear weapons, should Iran develop nuclear weapons in defiance.

    So please, point me to the world power who cares SO MUCH about Iran's nuclear program succeeding that they're willing to push Israel to the point of Armageddon.

    I'll wait.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Israel faces the same problem that the USA faces with North Korea - if you launch a first strike and you miss just one nuke then that nuke is coming back at you. Not to mention all the convention weapons that Hezbollah keeps just across the border.

    It's that stark and that simple.
    Except it's not really the same situation at all. For all the American posturing about the Axis of Evil, North Korea and Iran are completely different, politically, geographically, in terms of motivation ...

    As for Hezbollah, if they want to finally crash upon Israel like waves on rocks, well that's certainly an option for them to consider. My money is on the rocks in that fight.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    And Israel nuking Iran would be about the only thing that would united the Islamic world.
    To be blunt, I doubt they could unite if Allah came down from Paradise to tell them to. They didn't unite when Israel smashed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, they didn't unite when they smashed a Syrian nuclear reactor and I strongly doubt they will unite if Israel uses a nuclear "bunker buster" on a remote industrial site.
    Last edited by Sparq; February 12 2018 at 05:18:20 AM.

  7. #19427
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    Iran doesn't have nukes now, but there is no guarantee that they wont restart if Trump scraps the deal or other geopolitical factors kick in.

    The problem of cause is that you don't know they have them until they test them - aka North Korea.

    Hezbollah can fire missiles into Israel but they don't pose the kind of existential threat that nuclear weapons would,

    But we are just speculating.

  8. #19428
    Donor Sparq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Iran doesn't have nukes now, but there is no guarantee that they wont restart if Trump scraps the deal or other geopolitical factors kick in.
    Exactly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    The problem of cause is that you don't know they have them until they test them - aka North Korea.
    Not entirely accurate, in my opinion.

    Using Israel as an example, all their previous operations hinged not on knowledge of possession but knowledge of intention to possess. On the basis that Israel believed Iraq & Syria were actively attempting to acquire nuclear weapons and making advanced progress, they degraded & destroyed the sites where that work was being performed. Historically, that has been effective and (unfortunately, or not) is a proven method of counter-proliferation.

    North Korea has long surpassed (if only relatively recently) the point in the weapon development cycle met in Iraq, Syria and Iran. It has had opportunity to do so exactly because the geopolitical factors have been markedly different. They exert markedly more control on their own population, they have historically held the population of Seoul (and much of the northern part of South Korea) hostage with the threat of conventional attack to dissuade interference in their program. This arguably tilted things in favor of North Korea sustaining development and resulted in a failure to contain proliferation by economic sanction and diplomatic influence. Where-as Israel has always been able to leverage the threat of nuclear escalation to dissuade retaliation when exercising their counter-proliferation policy.


    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Hezbollah can fire missiles into Israel but they don't pose the kind of existential threat that nuclear weapons would,

    But we are just speculating.
    Of course. As I've said, Hezbollah could go all-out in response to Israel hitting Iranian weapons production - and that's either by conventional methods or a limited nuclear strike - but at the end of the day they're 'only' a proxy for Iran and they're not the 'real deal', militarily. Their bite might just be representative of their bark, but it's almost like suggesting Cuba could have launched a land invasion of the U.S.A. back during the Cold War & occupied the whole country alone.
    Last edited by Sparq; February 12 2018 at 05:40:57 AM.

  9. #19429
    Movember 2011 RazoR's Avatar
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    You keep saying "limited" nuclear strike like that's an option. Contrary to popular belief not all arabs are akin to wh40k orcs, the ones capable of producing nukes understand what they are for and the consequences of using them.
    Last edited by RazoR; February 12 2018 at 07:19:24 AM.

  10. #19430
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistair View Post
    Is the world better with more nuclear weapons?

    Should every nation have them?
    No indeed! That's why we need to stop incentivising every nation to get them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Keieueue View Post
    I love Malcanis!

  11. #19431
    Donor Sparq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    You keep saying "limited" nuclear strike like that's an option.
    Yeah mate, it is. Just because you don't like the idea of something happening, doesn't ward against it. I'm not advocating they do it, I'm saying be aware that they can if they think they have to.

    Quote Originally Posted by RazoR View Post
    Contrary to popular belief not all arabs are akin to wh40k orcs, the ones capable of producing nukes understand what they are for and the consequences of using them.
    The ones capable of producing nukes have, to date, tried and failed. Some of them haven't even mastered an understanding of the consequences for trying.

  12. #19432
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    The Saudis already have an agreement to buy Pakistani nukes.

    I agree that Israel may strike at Iran but I suspect that they don't have the capacity. Israel's best defense against being nuked is the fact that it contains sites most holy to Islam, and the fact that fallout would devastate surrounding Muslim nations, including Shia majority nations.

    But the fact that you have nuclear actors who fear for their very existence is in part what makes nukes in that region so dangerous.
    I think you may be overestimating the yield of Pakistani nukes. And the fallout.

  13. #19433
    Movember '11 Ginger Excellence Movember 2011Movember 2012 sarabando's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmychrist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    The Saudis already have an agreement to buy Pakistani nukes.

    I agree that Israel may strike at Iran but I suspect that they don't have the capacity. Israel's best defense against being nuked is the fact that it contains sites most holy to Islam, and the fact that fallout would devastate surrounding Muslim nations, including Shia majority nations.

    But the fact that you have nuclear actors who fear for their very existence is in part what makes nukes in that region so dangerous.
    I think you may be overestimating the yield of Pakistani nukes. And the fallout.
    nuke their holy sites and wait for them to still go on pilgrimages and then die of Rad poisoning?

  14. #19434
    Donor Sparq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sarabando View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmychrist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    The Saudis already have an agreement to buy Pakistani nukes.

    I agree that Israel may strike at Iran but I suspect that they don't have the capacity. Israel's best defense against being nuked is the fact that it contains sites most holy to Islam, and the fact that fallout would devastate surrounding Muslim nations, including Shia majority nations.

    But the fact that you have nuclear actors who fear for their very existence is in part what makes nukes in that region so dangerous.
    I think you may be overestimating the yield of Pakistani nukes. And the fallout.
    nuke their holy sites and wait for them to still go on pilgrimages and then die of Rad poisoning?
    Mate, I think you underestimate the draw of Hajj-as-a-service. Saudis will just make buku-bucks selling radiation suits, gas masks & filtered air accommodations in the ruins.

  15. #19435
    evil edna's Avatar
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    If it came down to Israel vs the entire muslim middle-east im betting on the jews every damn time

  16. #19436
    Duckslayer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by evil edna View Post
    If it came down to Israel vs the entire muslim middle-east im betting on the jews every damn time
    Well Israel is a client state of USA so yeah.

  17. #19437
    evil edna's Avatar
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    To be fair so are the more well equipped muslim countrys in that region

  18. #19438
    jimmychrist's Avatar
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    American guns are never haram

  19. #19439

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    I should start invest in Cola caps.

  20. #19440
    XenosisMk4's Avatar
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    More turbo-lightspeed neoliberal platitudes/virtue signaling/misplaced priorities on full display.
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    6 day war 2.0 when

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