You sound too much like a sane person. Please reevaluate your posting.Originally Posted by Maximillian
You sound too much like a sane person. Please reevaluate your posting.
Well mate, I think you're as guilty of wishful thinking as much as the Israelis will be when they glass wherever it is they think the Iranians have stashed their bombs - if & when that day comes, if & when they don't think conventional weapons will succeed. I mean, there are caveats that would have to be met to see such an implementation.
If there ever has to be a strike, the best-case scenario is that Israeli security services get tipped prior to any devices leaving assembly & being dispersed. A concentrated conventional attack could do the job just as reliably as they have done so to date. Recall this isn't happening in isolation, we're talking about a pattern of behavior with evidence to back it up.
If the Iranians can achieve dispersal to hardened sites, then the risk of Israel resorting to a limited nuclear strike ramps up dramatically.
About the worst possible scenario is Iran proceeding with their program to the point they can demonstrate a successful test within their own borders without Israeli foreknowledge, at which point the Israeli government of the day will find itself both caught by surprise and under intense domestic pressure to immediately strike all suspected program locations to preempt the Iranians.
The susceptibility of Israel to WMD attack is exactly what has driven their doctrine of forceful counter-proliferation. This same susceptibility may - in part, rightly or wrongly - also drive them to hitting what might be a nail with a wrecking ball.
That's debatable, in my opinion. They've held off combined attacks from their neighbors in the past. Undoubtedly they'd could be severely bloodied if everyone else got their acts together - but you're counting on the rest of the Islamic world being zealously protective of a handful of former Iranian industrial sites and not secretly relieved that it wasn't them.
You (and I) might see it that way, since we've almost all of us enjoyed not seeing a nuclear weapon used in anger in our lifetime - but there is a school of thought that they're a tool with which to do a job, even if it means burning down the other guys' tool factory.
Last edited by Sparq; February 12 2018 at 04:45:32 AM.
Except there are also 100 other guys that could make you choke on (conventional) tools.
Last edited by RazoR; February 12 2018 at 04:53:14 AM.
Israel faces the same problem that the USA faces with North Korea - if you launch a first strike and you miss just one nuke then that nuke is coming back at you. Not to mention all the convention weapons that Hezbollah keeps just across the border.
It's that stark and that simple.
And Israel nuking Iran would be about the only thing that would united the Islamic world.
Its all pretty fucking simple. Iran does in fact NOT have nukes. Their life insurance that also happens to not land them under sanctions to the stone age is Hezbollah.
Why on earth do you think they invested so much into missiles and hardened construction in Lebanon?
Okay, cool.Except there are also 100 other guys that could make you choke on (conventional) tools.
Now riddle me this, who exactly is going to go full MAD on Israel (with conventional weapons, no less) for launching a limited nuclear strike on Iran to forcefully apply counter-proliferation?
Just to clarify, at no point have I said Israel could or should commit nuclear genocide by going after cities or launching total attacks. I've talked about them having the potential to escalate their policy by destroying things like factories or perhaps military airfields where they knew Iran has nuclear weapons, should Iran develop nuclear weapons in defiance.
So please, point me to the world power who cares SO MUCH about Iran's nuclear program succeeding that they're willing to push Israel to the point of Armageddon.
I'll wait.
Except it's not really the same situation at all. For all the American posturing about the Axis of Evil, North Korea and Iran are completely different, politically, geographically, in terms of motivation ...
As for Hezbollah, if they want to finally crash upon Israel like waves on rocks, well that's certainly an option for them to consider. My money is on the rocks in that fight.
To be blunt, I doubt they could unite if Allah came down from Paradise to tell them to. They didn't unite when Israel smashed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, they didn't unite when they smashed a Syrian nuclear reactor and I strongly doubt they will unite if Israel uses a nuclear "bunker buster" on a remote industrial site.
Last edited by Sparq; February 12 2018 at 05:18:20 AM.
Iran doesn't have nukes now, but there is no guarantee that they wont restart if Trump scraps the deal or other geopolitical factors kick in.
The problem of cause is that you don't know they have them until they test them - aka North Korea.
Hezbollah can fire missiles into Israel but they don't pose the kind of existential threat that nuclear weapons would,
But we are just speculating.
Exactly.
Not entirely accurate, in my opinion.
Using Israel as an example, all their previous operations hinged not on knowledge of possession but knowledge of intention to possess. On the basis that Israel believed Iraq & Syria were actively attempting to acquire nuclear weapons and making advanced progress, they degraded & destroyed the sites where that work was being performed. Historically, that has been effective and (unfortunately, or not) is a proven method of counter-proliferation.
North Korea has long surpassed (if only relatively recently) the point in the weapon development cycle met in Iraq, Syria and Iran. It has had opportunity to do so exactly because the geopolitical factors have been markedly different. They exert markedly more control on their own population, they have historically held the population of Seoul (and much of the northern part of South Korea) hostage with the threat of conventional attack to dissuade interference in their program. This arguably tilted things in favor of North Korea sustaining development and resulted in a failure to contain proliferation by economic sanction and diplomatic influence. Where-as Israel has always been able to leverage the threat of nuclear escalation to dissuade retaliation when exercising their counter-proliferation policy.
Of course. As I've said, Hezbollah could go all-out in response to Israel hitting Iranian weapons production - and that's either by conventional methods or a limited nuclear strike - but at the end of the day they're 'only' a proxy for Iran and they're not the 'real deal', militarily. Their bite might just be representative of their bark, but it's almost like suggesting Cuba could have launched a land invasion of the U.S.A. back during the Cold War & occupied the whole country alone.
Last edited by Sparq; February 12 2018 at 05:40:57 AM.
You keep saying "limited" nuclear strike like that's an option. Contrary to popular belief not all arabs are akin to wh40k orcs, the ones capable of producing nukes understand what they are for and the consequences of using them.
Last edited by RazoR; February 12 2018 at 07:19:24 AM.
No indeed! That's why we need to stop incentivising every nation to get them.
Yeah mate, it is. Just because you don't like the idea of something happening, doesn't ward against it. I'm not advocating they do it, I'm saying be aware that they can if they think they have to.
The ones capable of producing nukes have, to date, tried and failed. Some of them haven't even mastered an understanding of the consequences for trying.
I think you may be overestimating the yield of Pakistani nukes. And the fallout.
nuke their holy sites and wait for them to still go on pilgrimages and then die of Rad poisoning?I think you may be overestimating the yield of Pakistani nukes. And the fallout.
Mate, I think you underestimate the draw of Hajj-as-a-service. Saudis will just make buku-bucks selling radiation suits, gas masks & filtered air accommodations in the ruins.nuke their holy sites and wait for them to still go on pilgrimages and then die of Rad poisoning?I think you may be overestimating the yield of Pakistani nukes. And the fallout.
If it came down to Israel vs the entire muslim middle-east im betting on the jews every damn time
Well Israel is a client state of USA so yeah.
To be fair so are the more well equipped muslim countrys in that region
American guns are never haram
I should start invest in Cola caps.
6 day war 2.0 when
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