Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[Sacul]

UAF now saying outright Russia has assembled ~500,000 troops for a new offensive. Let's hope that defender advantage is enough for them to weather that storm.

On the plus side, Russia hasn't replaced anything like the tanks they've lost, nor the aviation and definitely not the naval assets they had. Ukraine is on the other hand actually better equipped on everything except aviation.

On the negative, they've had a year to learn that Ukraine aint a pushover, that this isn't going to be a 2 week action holiday followed by a decade of happy genocide times like they were planning, and at least some of them have a notion of what they're doing now. Ukraine can't expect them to come in dumb like they did last time.

Sure hope those tanks are going to get there a little quicker than expected. Even those 14 Challenger IIs might see service. Special ammo for one tank platoon isn't that big an issue when you're facing half a million meth'd up vatniks.

UAF has a interest in pumping up the numbers for a spring offensive of Rus. I really really doubt they have that many men. They could not even feed, kit and arm the first 300k martial law conscripts where the shit are they getting supply's for a additional 500k?

It is the bullshit number that a certain retired USA general keeps mentioning with no evidence at all. The statement from the retired General gives creedence to their number without a shred of proof.

[VARRAKK]

UAF now saying outright Russia has assembled ~500,000 troops for a new offensive. Let's hope that defender advantage is enough for them to weather that storm.

On the plus side, Russia hasn't replaced anything like the tanks they've lost, nor the aviation and definitely not the naval assets they had. Ukraine is on the other hand actually better equipped on everything except aviation.

On the negative, they've had a year to learn that Ukraine aint a pushover, that this isn't going to be a 2 week action holiday followed by a decade of happy genocide times like they were planning, and at least some of them have a notion of what they're doing now. Ukraine can't expect them to come in dumb like they did last time.

Sure hope those tanks are going to get there a little quicker than expected. Even those 14 Challenger IIs might see service. Special ammo for one tank platoon isn't that big an issue when you're facing half a million meth'd up vatniks.

UAF has a interest in pumping up the numbers for a spring offensive of Rus. I really really doubt they have that many men. They could not even feed, kit and arm the first 300k martial law conscripts where the shit are they getting supply's for a additional 500k?

It is the bullshit number that a certain retired USA general keeps mentioning with no evidence at all. The statement from the retired General gives creedence to their number without a shred of proof.

Ukrainian intel is rarely wrong.
But also unlikely that all 500k can be sent to war, they have depleted many areas in Russia for men that have to be replenished, sooner than later.
Not everyone along their borders are friendly. A weak Russia is a juicy target.

[Sandzibar]

Maybe China will go full Tom Clancy and invade for more juicy land?

Unlikely.

[VARRAKK]

Russia still have to plan for such a scenario.
The more troops they pull away from the east side, the more likely it becomes.

Japan got some territory they could reclaim.
There is a massive border with Finland that must be reinforced.
50-100k troops to defend that border is not unlikely.
Probably want to put 100k in Belarus for training, to make sure they don't change their stance.

[Malcanis]

Maybe China will go full Tom Clancy and invade for more juicy land?

Unlikely.

Why bother? Just stir the pot a bit and supply a bit of aid for separatist movements and collect a new client state that only has borders with them and the rump RF

[Sacul]

UAF now saying outright Russia has assembled ~500,000 troops for a new offensive. Let's hope that defender advantage is enough for them to weather that storm.

On the plus side, Russia hasn't replaced anything like the tanks they've lost, nor the aviation and definitely not the naval assets they had. Ukraine is on the other hand actually better equipped on everything except aviation.

On the negative, they've had a year to learn that Ukraine aint a pushover, that this isn't going to be a 2 week action holiday followed by a decade of happy genocide times like they were planning, and at least some of them have a notion of what they're doing now. Ukraine can't expect them to come in dumb like they did last time.

Sure hope those tanks are going to get there a little quicker than expected. Even those 14 Challenger IIs might see service. Special ammo for one tank platoon isn't that big an issue when you're facing half a million meth'd up vatniks.

UAF has a interest in pumping up the numbers for a spring offensive of Rus. I really really doubt they have that many men. They could not even feed, kit and arm the first 300k martial law conscripts where the shit are they getting supply's for a additional 500k?

It is the bullshit number that a certain retired USA general keeps mentioning with no evidence at all. The statement from the retired General gives creedence to their number without a shred of proof.

Ukrainian intel is rarely wrong.
But also unlikely that all 500k can be sent to war, they have depleted many areas in Russia for men that have to be replenished, sooner than later.
Not everyone along their borders are friendly. A weak Russia is a juicy target.

I would say Ukr propaganda is good at making it real.
Rus canabiized the air defence of St petersburg to state it is no longer effective. Putting AA on the rooftops of ministery building in various city's does jack shit. The Finish and eastern borders are also canabalized and in the case of Fin border just recently back to old level with 4th tier troops.

Absolutely no way they can muster a extra 500k troops. Even if there was a remote chance of those numbers sat's and sigintel would have picked up on it weeks ago.
Smoll caveat is of course if we are only looking at boots and rusty Ak's from 1975, not a proper field army.

[Candy Crush]

Let's just assume that for every dead soldier there are 1-2 seriously wounded e.g. loss of limb, functionality, permanent disability.

If there really are 100k dead Russian soldiers, there are another 100-200k guys in burn units, amputee wards etc., so 200 to 300k permanently removed from serving in Russian Army. Considering there was less than 450K servicemen in the Russian Army and Rosgard, that would mean at least half of their trained/ready ground force is gone.

Even if the war ends now, it would take years to rebuild to that level of training, professional expertise and experience, yet the damage to their pre-war experienced/trained officer cadre continues on a daily basis. Can the Russians generate enough junior and mid-grade officer faster than they are losing them with attrition tactics?

The Russian are hoping to draw in Ukrainian reserves so they cannot go on the offensive. The Ukrainians know this and are slowly giving ground. Those guys are in a war of survival, of course they will ask for any and every help at any and every moment!

Can the Ukrainians kill Russians faster than Russians can take territory? Only time will tell.

[rufuske]

Let's just assume that for every dead soldier there are 1-2 seriously wounded e.g. loss of limb, functionality, permanent disability.

If there really are 100k dead Russian soldiers, there are another 100-200k guys in burn units, amputee wards etc., so 200 to 300k permanently removed from serving in Russian Army. Considering there was less than 450K servicemen in the Russian Army and Rosgard, that would mean at least half of their trained/ready ground force is gone.

Even if the war ends now, it would take years to rebuild to that level of training, professional expertise and experience, yet the damage to their pre-war experienced/trained officer cadre continues on a daily basis. Can the Russians generate enough junior and mid-grade officer faster than they are losing them with attrition tactics?

The Russian are hoping to draw in Ukrainian reserves so they cannot go on the offensive. The Ukrainians know this and are slowly giving ground. Those guys are in a war of survival, of course they will ask for any and every help at any and every moment!

Can the Ukrainians kill Russians faster than Russians can take territory? Only time will tell.

Re last paragraph. Yes, they can. Only question is at what cost, re civilians bombed, children kidnaped for pedoporn, woman raped etc.

[Candy Crush]

Sadly part and parcel of war, you can't save them all. There are still thousands of civilians in Bahmut refusing to evacuate at least in west Ukraine, if not in a EU country.

[Maximillian]

The 500k troops includes all the people in the support tail as well as combat troops. Assuming a ratio of 5:1 then you are only talking 100k combat troops, and the ratio maybe higher.

Russia is prepared for now to throw away people they consider worthless - convicts, ethnic minorities, poor people - and haven't started on the city populations to any degree.

ATM Russia is trying to stave off any further mass-loss of conquered territory. Putin needs something to boast about with the one year anniversary approaching. He has trapped himself and Russia in a war he can only gain from if Ukraine and its supporters give up, so the longer it goes on the greater the chance something happens like a another crisis occurring (Israel vs Iran maybe?).

The economic effects of both the war and the sanctions are only starting to be felt, and so far again are only hitting unimportant Russians.

[rufuske]

The 500k troops includes all the people in the support tail as well as combat troops. Assuming a ratio of 5:1 then you are only talking 100k combat troops, and the ratio maybe higher.

Russia is prepared for now to throw away people they consider worthless - convicts, ethnic minorities, poor people - and haven't started on the city populations to any degree.

ATM Russia is trying to stave off any further mass-loss of conquered territory. Putin needs something to boast about with the one year anniversary approaching. He has trapped himself and Russia in a war he can only gain from if Ukraine and its supporters give up, so the longer it goes on the greater the chance something happens like a another crisis occurring (Israel vs Iran maybe?).

The economic effects of both the war and the sanctions are only starting to be felt, and so far again are only hitting unimportant Russians.

I can even tell what ethnicity is coming next to the front lines, buryats are spent, time for Kirgizs. Everyone worries about Taiwan, but after this shit is done, China can just move north and everyone will praise it.

[Shiodome]

Except no-one actually wants Russian land, it isn't arable and comparatively hard to extract resources from. To put it in perspective, arable land comprises 12% of Japan (notoriously fucked on the 'usable land' front) but only 7.5% of Russia. the USSR lost it's best chunk of land when UKR left.

[Candy Crush]

Apparently, German government gave their OK to sent Leopard 1 to Ukraine from industry stocks, not only RM but also FFG and what country else wants to give. The problem is the (non)availability of 105mm ammunition in German stocks but they are working on it. German gov is negotiating with Qatar to buy back their 15 Gepard but also their ammo stocks.

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...n-problem.html

[Spartan Dax]

What remains to be seen is how effective the russian air defense is against the GLSDB, as it is a slower glider than the ballistic GLMRS, and Ukraine has shown that even cruise missiles can be countered with quite good success rate.

The situation might a bit similar to the Iranian drones that the russians are using. Easy to shoot down but expensive to do so with missile based AA. That said I have no idea how russian AA will fare against GLSDB ordanance. The flight path will be different from anything previously on the battlefield and they might not even be able to identify them properly.

And speaking of flight path. These things actually glide and manouver, they can disperse, fly around a mountain and come in from the rear. Quite different from the GMLRS rockets which uses a ballistic trajectory.


And they're dirt cheap. Actually cheaper than GMLRS rockets to the tunes of 50% or more.

[Malcanis]

Clarification on the "500,000". The claim isn't 500,000 more, it's total. Essentially the claim is the Russia mobilised ca. 300,000 chumps last year and deployed about half of them more or less immediately, and kept the other half to get some training. Those more-or-less trained ~150,000 mobiks are now to be deployed, adding to the ~320-330k Russia has in theater now. Thus the "500k", which is accurate to one significant figure, and really it's meaningless to try and get much more precise than that anyway.

Of course that figure has to be modified in light of Russia's apparent willingness to lose 3-5000 effectives a week. if they're planning to go on the 24th of Feb again, then they'll be doing it with 10-15,000 fewer men.

On a related note: starting another offensive on the exact anniversary of the one which went so poorly, when exactly the same weather conditions that wrecked the first attempt so badly is so very Russian. The UAF is considerably stronger and better equipped, and certainly not less motivated than they were a year ago. The exact opposite is true of the Russian forces. This is going to be extremely bloody.

[Candy Crush]

The front line freeze

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRuss...w_battles_the/

[Sacul]

Clarification on the "500,000". The claim isn't 500,000 more, it's total. Essentially the claim is the Russia mobilised ca. 300,000 chumps last year and deployed about half of them more or less immediately, and kept the other half to get some training. Those more-or-less trained ~150,000 mobiks are now to be deployed, adding to the ~320-330k Russia has in theater now. Thus the "500k", which is accurate to one significant figure, and really it's meaningless to try and get much more precise than that anyway.

Of course that figure has to be modified in light of Russia's apparent willingness to lose 3-5000 effectives a week. if they're planning to go on the 24th of Feb again, then they'll be doing it with 10-15,000 fewer men.

On a related note: starting another offensive on the exact anniversary of the one which went so poorly, when exactly the same weather conditions that wrecked the first attempt so badly is so very Russian. The UAF is considerably stronger and better equipped, and certainly not less motivated than they were a year ago. The exact opposite is true of the Russian forces. This is going to be extremely bloody.

I must have read some of your sources today as i now understand the same to be the case. I also understood Ukr estimates there are now 250/300 troops of Rus in Ukr (they did mention not all battlefront), previous estimate was 180-200k Rus, Start of was 120-140k Rus.

[Malcanis]

I've also seen it bruited about that Putin is quite willing to accept half a million casualties to conquer Ukraine, which is an interesting figure as it implies that losing every single soldier currently in Ukraine is considered an acceptable outcome.

Well, The Golden Throne is sustained by sacrifice, after all.

[Malcanis]

BTW has anyone heard from Raz0r lately? I hope he's not been dragged into this omnishambles.

[Sandzibar]

Probably keeping his head down after 15+ years of telling us how awesome Russia is.. and how everything Western milspec wise was dogshit.

Im sure he is fine. WarThunder servers are still up and running after all.