Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[helgur]

Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed a memorandum that I assume addresses the Kurdish issue and the ban on weapon sales - .i.e. Turkey got what it wanted.

I'm pleased with the fact Stoltenberg decided to stay in NATO and not bail on the alliance (he was supposed to take the job as the leader of Norwegians central bank in March). He's done an outstanding job so far. Probably the best for his legacy also (especially with the ever increasing interest rates).

[Hel OWeen]

USSR Consumption rates, they are spending more munitions then they can produce. How long does their stock last?
How many %'s of their consumption rates can they produce?

One thing to keep in mind though is the fact that Russia is one of the few countries not relying on imports for conventional ammunition production. It has all resources needed, so sanctions won't help with that. Its production capacity is the limiting factor.

[Jori McKie]

In a war of attrition, which we seemed to have entered a couple of weeks ago, Russia will keep the upper hand in the long run. Which doesn't mean they win this war, but rather it morphing into a North/South Korean like stalemate, with the ongoing or occasional local fighting happening*).

Even assuming RU can't upkeep the artillery firing of now due to ammunition supply issues, all they need to do is dig in, defend and keep hold of what they've got now. UA won't be able to gain larger territory parts back, because it'll lack the manpower to go on the offensive.

RU still has and most likely will keep the air superiority, so e.g. massive armored UA attacks might not be feasible. Though in the long run UA will have the artillery (range) advantage ( = assuming most support promises by western countries will be fulfilled eventually), arti doesn't win back territory. You still need boots on the ground for that.

*) One thing to keep in mind, of which at least I wasn't aware of: there has been constant ongoing fighting happening in the east of UA since 2014. I recently learned (German vid) that the definition/distinction of actual war, in comparison to an armed conflict, is 1,000 deadly causalities/yr.. In that regard, UA is at war since 2014.

The most important point is air superiority or in case of Ukraine to deny it. You don't need fixed winged planes to archive that, you need lots of short and long range anti aircraft/missile systems, like IRIS-T SLM, Patriot, handheld stuff, stinger etc. You build a cone of "can't fly here" and then move it with your arti, tanks etc.

It is more or less the current situation in Ukraine for the Russian air force, Ukraine can't cover the whole front and i doubt they will ever be able to do so but they don't need to. What Ukraine needs are lots of those anti aircraft systems + long range arti +40km range. Goodbye Russians....


What puzzles me is that NATO is able to deny what i described above and Russia not.

[Lief Siddhe]

Should probably go into the Russia thread but w/e

[VARRAKK]

So much talk about the M777, good explanation of how they are used

[Lief Siddhe]

That popped up in my youtubes today as well goddamn algorithms and watchlists

[Candy Crush]

Apparently, Russian soldiers leave Snake Island as a "gesture of good will" on two fast boats as their "job was accomplished".

[VARRAKK]

Apparently, Russian soldiers leave Snake Island as a "gesture of good will" on two fast boats as their "job was accomplished".

And shortly after, it was denazified.

[Nordstern]

They must have accepted that it wasn't worth putting expensive weapon systems there.

[depili]

They must have accepted that it wasn't worth putting expensive weapon systems there.

More like realized that Ukraine now has artillery systems that can shell the island from shore when ever they want to and anti-shipping missiles that make supplying the island a PITA.

[VARRAKK]

Seems Russia did go south and attacking Lysychansk from 3 sides now.

[Lief Siddhe]

Unfortunately Lysychansk is a foregone conclusion.

Ukraine does well when they do guerilla style assaults.

Giving Russians a large comcentration of troops in a fortified position in the east is a recipe for disaster.

[depili]

Ukraine doesn't really have the manpower or weapons to go on the offensive, so it is just picking off the orcs as they try to advance.

In other news, two packages from Ukraine decided to arrive today, one is a resin scale model kit I ordered 4 months ago and another is some ukrainian post office merch I ordered about a month ago.

[Joe Appleby]

Russia claims to have destroyed 2 HIMARS launchers.

https://warisboring.com/russia-repor...ile-launchers/

[Lowa [NSN]]

Russia claims to have destroyed 2 HIMARS launchers.

https://warisboring.com/russia-repor...ile-launchers/

It seems its BS tho.

[Hel OWeen]

Russia claims to have destroyed 2 HIMARS launchers.

https://warisboring.com/russia-repor...ile-launchers/

"[...] were destroyed by air-launched high-precision missiles"


If true, then back to:

The most important point is air superiority or in case of Ukraine to deny it. You don't need fixed winged planes to archive that, you need lots of short and long range anti aircraft/missile systems, like IRIS-T SLM, Patriot, handheld stuff, stinger etc. You build a cone of "can't fly here" and then move it with your arti, tanks etc.

[Candy Crush]

Russia claims to have destroyed 2 HIMARS launchers.

https://warisboring.com/russia-repor...ile-launchers/

The Russian proof:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...rs_in_eastern/

They say it's fake.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/s...E4fv4hq1w&s=19

In other news, 4 more HIMARS are en route to Ukraine.

[Candy Crush]

Russian spetsnaz or razvedchiki firing a PKM at an abandoned Ukrainian S-300 TEL at close range.

This idiot clearly does not know shit about their own equipment and how its dangerous to shoot at missiles from up close. Also if you choose to do so you need to use your gas mask as those fumes are anything but healthy. In old manuals stipulated using NBC gear when handling soviet missiles both solid/liquid fueled.

[depili]

Two packages from Ukraine arrived today, one of them had been in transit for 106 days.

[rufuske]

Russia claims to have destroyed 2 HIMARS launchers.

https://warisboring.com/russia-repor...ile-launchers/

They also captured some together with few CAESARs and PzH 2000 and are reverse engineering them and shot down more Bayraktars that Turkey ever produced...They claim to have shot down crowdfunded ones before they even started building them...So on and so forth.

At that point they put no effort in their propaganda. Useful idiots here will believe anything they say no matter evidence or common sense and same with domestic audience. So why even bother?

Meanwhile they seem to deploying their latest state of the art APCs: