Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[LeonM]

I'm surprised he's not in Israel already.

If we can be spared putinist refugees it'd be great, thx

the PM of Israel, Naftali Bennett, has reportedly visited Moscow and offered to negotiate the peace agreement. Yeah, Israel negotiating the peace in supposed denatzifying special operation.

Will do zero good since Putin obviously gone bonkers.
Should have delivered Iron Domes, but government is too pussy and is scared that Russia won't allow us to bomb Syria/Lebanon anymore.

[Nordstern]

Can I get someone to ID the chopper killed in this vid? I want to say Ka-50, but I'm not sure.

  Spoiler:

[LeonM]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mil_Mi-24

[Nordstern]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mil_Mi-24

More specifically, a Mi-35, according to r/combatfootage.

edit: And a Su-30, too! Splyat!

[Sarp]

[Nordstern]

122 rubbles to the dollar lol.

[cullnean]

Treating this shit like porn

Fucking awful

[rufuske]

How I wish it's legit
https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB

[dzajic]

How I wish it's legit
https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB

Nothing earth shattering. Either a mid to low level analyst in FSB ranting at everything around him burning and being made of shit or a very finely tailored fake.

We know they really kept the invasion secret from their own military personnel outside of highest level. Than rank and file spooks were also kept in the dark and given compartmentalized tasks? Not impossible.

Analysts being told to make reports that will meet their bosses ideas look good and make them happy? Its regular thing in actually functional and profitable corporations, in a authoritarian corrupt structure of Putin's military and intelligence apparatus it is a given.

That due to disappearance of wheat exports and fertilizer exports from Russiand Ukraine that world food market is going to detonate? Again stating the obvious.

That if x amount of logistics cannot feed N troops, then k * x logistics cannot supply k * N troops? Water is wet.

That even Russian speaking people living in Ukraine who identify as Russians are being pissed off and feeling betrayed as Russian bombs fall on their cities on Putin's orders? Imagine that...

Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.

With all the blatant corruption and now evident institutional rot, what is the actual readiness of Russian nukes? Doesn't matter. Even if they are 10% viable its still 60+ actual citykillers. No one wants to see that.

Sad thing is, that if this is genuine and is tracked to the author, someone is going to a shallow unmarked grave for stating the obvious.

[Joe Appleby]

Than rank and file spooks were also kept in the dark and given compartmentalized tasks? Not impossible.

That was the standard MO for the Stasi, which means it was the standard MO for the KGB, which in return means the FSB works like that as well. People only knew what was necessary for their specific task, even if that task was part of a larger operation. Unlike US services, there was no general "top secret" clearance that gave you access to knowledge outside of your mission. A leak like Snowden's would have been rather impossible. For example the West only has a rather complete history of the KGB because the head of the KGB archive copied the archive and fled with it in the early 90s.

[VARRAKK]

How I wish it's legit
https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB

Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.

There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.

[dzajic]

How I wish it's legit
https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB

Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.

There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.

Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.

[Steckersaurus]

Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.

Gold is only valuable if someone will buy it from them, unless they're going to start minting coins from it and using that to pay their soldiers. No one will do so internationally (except maybe China?) so they'd presumably be selling it domestically which... I guess could work? I feel like their domestic market wouldn't support buying on that scale, the price would crater.

[rufuske]

How I wish it's legit
https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB

Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.

There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.

Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.

Re Vukovar/Grozny, already happening. Check latest reports from Mariupol.

[Nordstern]

But even these numbers are out of date.

Ukrainian Air Force says 5 Russian aircraft, 4 helicopters were downed.

The Armed Forces Air Command issued a statement saying that it had shot down one enemy Su-25 fighter jet, two Su-34 fighter-bombers, two Su-30 SM planes, and four helicopters today. Ukraine now claims a total kill count of 44 planes and 44 helicopters.

[Grendelfreak]

Could you imagine the political shitshow if we lost those numbers one week into invading Iraq?

[I Legionnaire]

True numbers are probably a third of what Kyiv Independent is reporting. Even so, still a fuckload of dead Russians.

[Nordstern]

I can think of a few people I went to high school with who have probably answered the call since 2014.

[rufuske]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/...putins_office/

[Jori McKie]

More unintended consequences Putin didn't thought of:
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inst-strongmen

I don't know the dates for the election in France and Hungary but they are soonish. Even if only the people on the fence voting for anti-democratic politicians are now turning away it will be huge and hopefully a long term effect.