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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #22001
    Lowa [NSN]'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    This whole thing is horrifying but damn if that isnt funny as hell!
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarminic View Post
    I would create a dragon made out of vaginas. Then I would create a dragon made out of dicks. Then I would have them fight to the death.

  2. #22002

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    Supposedly Germany is supplying Ukraine with the JFS-M...This is weird because they just introduced this missile a couple of months ago. I assume that missile is in early prototype phase and thus has never been fired? Delivery sound unlikely to me, but after AGM-88 we could expect other weapons that do not need datalink to operate.


  3. #22003
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    UKR is the first to use this missile.

    Perfect proving grounds to test out weapons.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  4. #22004

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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    UKR is the first to use this missile.

    Perfect proving grounds to test out weapons.
    Do they have a radiation missile for those launchers? It would be rather fantastic to launch a volley with mostly regular missiles while including 1-2 HARM missiles to go after SAM defences.

  5. #22005

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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    UKR is the first to use this missile.

    Perfect proving grounds to test out weapons.
    Allows MBDA to put ‘combat proven’ on the brochure for the next mil expo.

  6. #22006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spartan Dax View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    UKR is the first to use this missile.

    Perfect proving grounds to test out weapons.
    Do they have a radiation missile for those launchers? It would be rather fantastic to launch a volley with mostly regular missiles while including 1-2 HARM missiles to go after SAM defences.
    AFAIK only for the MIG-29's.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  7. #22007
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    Russians caught in a Catch 22 that is going to give UKR air superiority in a sooner than later.

    To protect their AA systems from HARM missiles, they keep radars off. Which allows the Bayraktars free reign to take them out unopposed.
    Seeing multiple clips of drones directly over their air defence systems blowing them up.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  8. #22008
    Dee Jiensai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Russians caught in a Catch 22 that is going to give UKR air superiority in a sooner than later.

    To protect their AA systems from HARM missiles, they keep radars off. Which allows the Bayraktars free reign to take them out unopposed.
    Seeing multiple clips of drones directly over their air defence systems blowing them up.
    That is a big deal. Air superiority is almost a guaranteed win.
    I'm increasingly wondering how this will end.

    Russia is not winning. Putin is not going to say "Ah, nevermind, plan didn't work, lets go home".
    Ukraine is not going to just give Russia the part of their country (again).

    How does this end?

  9. #22009
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dee Jiensai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Russians caught in a Catch 22 that is going to give UKR air superiority in a sooner than later.

    To protect their AA systems from HARM missiles, they keep radars off. Which allows the Bayraktars free reign to take them out unopposed.
    Seeing multiple clips of drones directly over their air defence systems blowing them up.
    That is a big deal. Air superiority is almost a guaranteed win.
    I'm increasingly wondering how this will end.

    Russia is not winning. Putin is not going to say "Ah, nevermind, plan didn't work, lets go home".
    Ukraine is not going to just give Russia the part of their country (again).

    How does this end?
    Same way it was always ever going to end; Putin having a nasty 9mm headache of falling out of a top story window while "recovering from an emergency operation" or whatever blatant excuse the coupbois use. He has to win or die. Can't be a stronkman diktator and lose a war to the stupid bumbling ukrops, after all, but you can still give service to your country by being a scapegoat upon whom everything can be blamed, reform process begins now, re-alignment of values, prosperity through peace, etc etc lift sanctions naow plox
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  10. #22010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dee Jiensai View Post
    How does this end?
    "Didn't want that piece of land anyways."

  11. #22011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dee Jiensai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Russians caught in a Catch 22 that is going to give UKR air superiority in a sooner than later.

    To protect their AA systems from HARM missiles, they keep radars off. Which allows the Bayraktars free reign to take them out unopposed.
    Seeing multiple clips of drones directly over their air defence systems blowing them up.
    That is a big deal. Air superiority is almost a guaranteed win.
    I'm increasingly wondering how this will end.

    Russia is not winning. Putin is not going to say "Ah, nevermind, plan didn't work, lets go home".
    Ukraine is not going to just give Russia the part of their country (again).

    How does this end?
    Same way it was always ever going to end; Putin having a nasty 9mm headache of falling out of a top story window while "recovering from an emergency operation" or whatever blatant excuse the coupbois use. He has to win or die. Can't be a stronkman diktator and lose a war to the stupid bumbling ukrops, after all, but you can still give service to your country by being a scapegoat upon whom everything can be blamed, reform process begins now, re-alignment of values, prosperity through peace, etc etc lift sanctions naow plox
    Also give back yachts and condos, plox.
    Tanks: theBlind[URBAD] (in my heart there will always be a place for [FAIL])
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  12. #22012
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    It's happening, slowly but steady it seems. Read, if you want more details
    https://understandingwar.org/backgro...nt-september-4

    Gumenyuk noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy is to exhaust Russian forces and added that Ukrainian forces have enough resources and forces to restrain Russian combat power in southern Ukraine.
    The Ukrainian General Staff noted that servicemen of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps refused to fight, citing a lack of supplies such as water.
    ISW previously reported that the DNR redeployed the 109th, 113th, and 125th Regiments to northwestern Kherson Oblast in late July, and the 109th regiment reportedly surrendered on the first day of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    I said it early air superiority is key. You can't expect Ukraine to get air supremacy but nonetheless i forgot about HARMS and UAF did a very good job to combine MRLS and HARMS to mostly silence/destroy Russian AD where it matters.
    The bad thing, it's paid in Ukraine blood.

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    Last edited by Jori McKie; September 5 2022 at 05:33:33 PM.
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  13. #22013
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    Hey yeah, everyone remember that infinite ple of 152mm ammo that Russia has that it would be literally impossible for them to use them all before the war ends?

    https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/sta...65700308131846

    23 months at the current rate, we were told, and that was before their artillery started getting throttled. Because Russia aint got spare money to spend just for the fun of it right now, and they very definitely don't have the spare logistical capability to transport heavy, bulky artillery ammo from North Korea to Belgorod just for the fun of it.

    Now I am wondering... We know that a heck of a lot of shells were used in Ukraine but now I am wondring just how many rounds more went boom in those many, many backfield ammo depot strikes? What if Russia actually moved a significant fraction of their extant ammo bank forward and Ukraine found it out?

    And what if that "23 months supply" was actually, er, 3 or 4 months supply, a few tens of thousands of pallets of water-damaged corroded steel and a sheaf of notes from Milo Minderbender?
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  14. #22014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    And what if that "23 months supply" was actually, er, 3 or 4 months supply, a few tens of thousands of pallets of water-damaged corroded steel and a sheaf of notes from Milo Minderbender?
    Pallets? Russian logistics hasn't widely adopted the use of pallets. Pretty much everything is just piled up manually or in boxes which are piled up.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  15. #22015
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    Bloomberg's article based on leaked Russian government report: Sanctions work.

    Paywalled so spoiler copypasta time...

    tl;dr
    "optimistic" scenario: economic low point in 2023 with minus 8.3% GDP compared to 2021
    pessimistic scenario: economic low point in 2024 with minus 11.9% GDP compared to 2021
    all scenarios predict the intensification of sanctions
    no gas for Europe means minus 6.6 billion USD (400 billion RUB) per year, but new export markets won't be able to compensate for this even on the mid-term, causing higher inflation and loss of value for the RUB
    no access to critical imports due to the lack of alternative suppliers; this will cascade to the agriculture sector as well, which could force Russians to decrease their food consumption
    200 000 IT specialists will leave the country by 2025

      Spoiler:

    Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage
    Confidential document contrasts with upbeat public statements
    Report says key sectors face sharp drop in output, brain drain
    Bloomberg News
    September 5, 2022 at 3:56 PM GMT+2Updated onSeptember 6, 2022 at 10:14 AM GMT+2

    Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government.

    The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity.

    Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level.

    Russia Sees Sanctions Hitting Growth
    Internal document says economy may take years to bounce back


    Source: internal government document seen by Bloomberg

    Note: forecasts show cumulative growth rates

    All the scenarios see the pressure of sanctions intensifying, with more countries likely to join them. Europe’s sharp turn away from Russian oil and gas may also hit the Kremlin’s ability to supply its own market, the report said.

    Beyond the restrictions themselves, which cover about a quarter of imports and exports, the report details how Russia now faces a “blockade” that “has affected practically all forms of transport,” further cutting off the country’s economy. Technological and financial curbs add to the pressure. The report estimates as many as 200,000 IT specialists may leave the country by 2025, the first official forecast of the widening brain drain.

    Publicly, officials say the hit from sanctions has been less than feared, with the contraction possibly less than 3% this year and even less in 2023. Outside economists have also adjusted the outlooks for this year, backing off initial forecasts of a deep recession as the economy has held up better than expected.

    Export Drop
    The document calls for a raft of measures to support the economy and further ease the impact of the restrictions in order to get the economy recovering to pre-war levels in 2024 and growing steadily after that. But the steps include many of the same measures to stimulate investment that the government has touted over the last decade, when growth largely stagnated even without sanctions.

    Asked about the Bloomberg report early Tuesday in Vladivostok, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov called the forecasts “analytical estimates that we used to calculate what would happen if we don’t resist, don’t do anything,” according to Tass.

    What Bloomberg Economics Says...
    “With diminished access to Western technologies, a wave of foreign corporate divestment and demographic headwinds ahead, the country’s potential growth is set to shrink to 0.5%-1.0% in the next decade. Thereafter, it will shrink further still, down to just above zero by 2050. Russia will also be increasingly vulnerable to a decline in global commodity prices, as international reserves no longer provide a buffer.” -Alexander Isakov, Russia economist

    Over the next year or two, the report warns of “reduced production volumes in a range of export-oriented sectors,” from oil and gas to metals, chemicals and wood products. While some rebound is possible later, “these sectors will cease to be the drivers of the economy.”

    No, Yale - Sanctions Have Not Triggered a Collapse in Russia

    A full cutoff of gas to Europe, Russia’s main export market, could cost as much as 400 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) a year in lost tax revenues, according to the report. It won’t be possible to fully compensate the lost sales with new export markets even in the medium term.

    Oil Sector Hit
    As a result, output will have to be reduced, threatening Kremlin goals for expanding domestic gas supplies, the report said. The lack of technology needed for liquefied natural gas plants is “critical” and may hamper efforts to build new ones.

    Europe’s plans to stop importing Russian oil products -- about 55% of exports went there last year -- could trigger sharp cuts in production leaving the domestic market short of fuel, as well.

    Metals producers are losing $5.7 billion a year from the restrictions, the report said.

    If the world economy slips into recession, the report warns, Russia could see exports cut further as it becomes the “swing supplier” on global markets, with demand for its products disappearing first. That could trigger a plunge in the ruble and a spike in inflation.

    On the import side, “the main short-term risk is the suspension of production due to lack of imported raw materials and components.” Over the longer term, the inability to repair imported equipment could permanently limit growth, the report said.

    ‘Critical Imports’
    “There are simply no alternative suppliers for some critical imports,” it said.

    Even in the farm sector, where the Kremlin has touted its efforts at replacing foreign supplies, dependence on key inputs could force Russians to reduce their food consumption as supplies dwindle, according to the report.

    Restrictions on access to western technology may push Russia a generation or two behind current standards as it’s forced to rely on less advanced alternatives from China and Southeast Asia.

    The report warns that sanctions will also force the government to revise a range of the development targets that Putin had set before the war, including those for boosting population growth and life expectancy.

    On a sectoral basis, the report details the breadth of the hit from sanctions:

    Agriculture: Fully 99% of poultry production and 30% of Holstein dairy cattle output depends on imports. Seeds for staples like sugar beets and potatoes are also mostly brought in from outside the country, as are fish feeds and aminoacids.
    Aviation: 95% of passenger volume is carried on foreign-made planes and the lack of access to imported spare parts could lead the fleet to shrink as they go out of service
    Machine-building: only 30% of machine tools are Russian-made and local industry doesn’t have the capacity to cover rising demand
    Pharmaceuticals: About 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materials
    Transport: EU restrictions have tripled costs for road shipments
    Communications and IT: Restrictions on SIM cards could leave Russia short of them by 2025, while its telecommunications sector may fall five years behind world leaders in 2022.
    — With assistance by Benjamin Harvey

  16. #22016
    rufuske's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    And what if that "23 months supply" was actually, er, 3 or 4 months supply, a few tens of thousands of pallets of water-damaged corroded steel and a sheaf of notes from Milo Minderbender?
    Pallets? Russian logistics hasn't widely adopted the use of pallets. Pretty much everything is just piled up manually or in boxes which are piled up.
    This. There are serious sources analyzing how much it impedes their logistic efforts in current conflict.

  17. #22017

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    Iranian drones, North Korean shells, the war is going well.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...rt-2022-09-06/

    Buying North Korean munitions would be like buying Iranian drones. Even the Russians couldn’t be that desperate.


  18. #22018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Iranian drones, North Korean shells, the war is going well.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...rt-2022-09-06/

    Buying North Korean munitions would be like buying Iranian drones. Even the Russians couldn’t be that desperate.

    Have a gander at the supply route: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ernational.svg

    Yes this looks like a practical a sensible scheme for a country which cant repair rolling stock and is already running short
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  19. #22019
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    And what if that "23 months supply" was actually, er, 3 or 4 months supply, a few tens of thousands of pallets of water-damaged corroded steel and a sheaf of notes from Milo Minderbender?
    Pallets? Russian logistics hasn't widely adopted the use of pallets. Pretty much everything is just piled up manually or in boxes which are piled up.
    Given their track record, I'd expect them to have private conscriptovic roll them all the way.

    While smoking.
    Tanks: theBlind[URBAD] (in my heart there will always be a place for [FAIL])
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  20. #22020
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    UKR troll game remains S-tier:

    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

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