Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[Cosmin]

That is certainly the assumption that Putler used to go to war, but so far instead of dividing europe and leading to weak responses it has instead united the rest of the world.

Tbh it's nothing short of hilarious how everything blew up in the bastard's face and will continue to do so if he keeps toeing the current line. It has all been actually a bit too perfect, it's like everybody was just waiting for a pretext to shit all over Russia, even involving the Judo Association and other sports organisations. Goes to show cheating, state-sponsored doping and spreading monies around goes only so far and I'm frankly impressed how quickly they got thrown in the shitter.

Quick reminder: Olaf Scholz, the current elected chancellor you're referring to, was part of Merkel's cabinet (Minister of Finance) and therefore not completely out of touch with Merkel's stance towards Russia.

Which brings me to your next point. Merkel would have done exactly what she did in the past: nada. For whatever reason, people give Merkel far too much credit for doing nothing. Remember when she visited Putin and this happened:


Everyone is well aware that Merkel is afraid of dogs, but ofc Putin was not (haha!) and "didn't intend to scare her". No slapping happened there nor did she slap "the ears off the clown" on various other occasions when he deployed troops in foreign countries.

The only thing that she had going for her in relation to Putin was that she's from the former GDR where Putin served as an intelligence agent (hence him speaking German) and the he speaks German and she Russian. That's about it.

I think you grossly underestimate her doing "nada" has kept Putin put until now, I'm sure it was not just a passive stance. And you can't know what is discussed behind closed doors. However you look at this it's suspicious to say the least that only now he has made a bold move like this when supposedly the Europe is a bit in dissaray.

If anything Putin pushing the boundaries has not escalated beyond bringing a doggo inside a room with a world leader afraid of doggos. Now he's threatening nuclear response to his invasion of a sovereign country. Please see the difference.

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

[Hel OWeen]

https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...ows-2022-03-02

Sberbank retreats from europe to protect it's staff. There are no problems with debts, the stock crashing 99% or the banks russian website being down for extended period.

Speaking of Sberbank, they also have to deal with a massive data breach right now:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AgainstTh...28845041672194

[Sacul]

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

Worry vibes? It takes years and years and years in peace time conditions to get the german (same for dutch) army up to the same standards of lets say 20 years ago.

The entire chain has been dismantled so much its not just throwing some money at it and it will be solved. Even going into war mode it is not like some idiots say 'converting a mercedes factory to a panzer line'.

[DerWish]

[Lorkin Desal]

Listening to LBC earlier and they were reporting that Russia has sent the USA ambassador packing. Not on BBC though.

[rufuske]

NSFL:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...l_anthem_while

Subreddit is full of war crime footage lately.

[dzajic]

Don't worry, Ukrainian special forces are proudly announcing on Facebook they are going to start doing war crimes.

https://www.facebook.com/usofcom/posts/3212999028931719

(In case it eventually gets deleted, as Tweet broadcasting to the world already has. Ukrainian special forces will no longer be taking Russian artillerymen captive due to perceived war crimes of their fire against populated targets)

With Russia using Chechens in the fight we can expect war crimes on both sides to explode on both sides over next 48 hours.

[August]

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

Worry vibes? It takes years and years and years in peace time conditions to get the german (same for dutch) army up to the same standards of lets say 20 years ago.

The entire chain has been dismantled so much its not just throwing some money at it and it will be solved. Even going into war mode it is not like some idiots say 'converting a mercedes factory to a panzer line'.

Good, Germany should not have a functional military. You have the economy, let the French have the army.

[Elriche Oshego]

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

Worry vibes? It takes years and years and years in peace time conditions to get the german (same for dutch) army up to the same standards of lets say 20 years ago.

The entire chain has been dismantled so much its not just throwing some money at it and it will be solved. Even going into war mode it is not like some idiots say 'converting a mercedes factory to a panzer line'.

Good, Germany should not have a functional military. You have the economy, let the French have the army.

French and German cooperation is one of the central pillars of European security. Of course Germany should have a capable army. Germany isn't the big bogeyman that everyone still seems to think of them as, they're far more capable of handling a military responsibly than many of the other NATO members.

[Maximillian]

I suspect that the Russian tactics are changing, from a plan to quickly neutralise the Ukrainan Government before installing a puppet regime who'd hand over the Donbest and agree to it and the Crimea becoming part of Russia, to doing as much damage as possible so that the surviving Ukrainian Government will spend all its time and resources rebuilding rather than spending it on the military, and probably requiring the western nations to pour in billions in reconstruction aid.

Because there is no way any pro-Russian puppet Government can survive in Ukraine without a huge number of Russian forces remaining to prop them up. In part the Ukrainians handing out weapons to anyone willing to fight means that you now have an armed populous who has shown that they are willing to fight and die to get the Russians out.

Supporting a Ukrainian puppet Government would require the Russians to spend huge amounts of money, money that they increasingly won't have. Putin will be painfully aware that it was economics that brought down the USSR. If Russia cannot pay its troops and civillian employees with Rubles that are worth anything then things will start to go bad fast. Oppression only works when the oppressors keep getting their regular pay cheques.

So I suspect that Putin will drive his military to take enough of Ukraine so he can declare "Mission Over" and pull back, probably holding onto the corridor linking the Crimea to other Russian occupied territory in the hope that the West gets bored or Trump runs in 2024 or some other disaster allows things to go back to business as usual.

Interestingly the Chinese don't seem happy with Russia's actions, hence the abstensions in the UN. No doubt their plans for a takeover of Taiwan have been scraped because now they'll need to take the new level of sanctions into account. Taiwan wll also have seen the importance of holding out to prevent a fait accompli and thereby allowing the rest of the world time to react.

[whispous]

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

Worry vibes? It takes years and years and years in peace time conditions to get the german (same for dutch) army up to the same standards of lets say 20 years ago.

The entire chain has been dismantled so much its not just throwing some money at it and it will be solved. Even going into war mode it is not like some idiots say 'converting a mercedes factory to a panzer line'.

Good, Germany should not have a functional military. You have the economy, let the French have the army.

Holding on to grudges from events that occurred before you or they were born is a great way to be like Putin

[Cosmin]

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

Worry vibes? It takes years and years and years in peace time conditions to get the german (same for dutch) army up to the same standards of lets say 20 years ago.

The entire chain has been dismantled so much its not just throwing some money at it and it will be solved. Even going into war mode it is not like some idiots say 'converting a mercedes factory to a panzer line'.

This is not about Germany's military power, numbnuts, it's about the message sent - "we are kinda panicking, so we are throwing more monies at the problem".

Currently there's only one country hellbent on invading somebody else in Europe and it isn't Germany - and it's highly likely it will never again be Germany. The way their schools teach history means that the shit show that was WW2 will never happen again starting there.


However, Russia has a long history of dictatorship and manipulating the truth. Even now there are a LOT of people on the internet who want to hear "both sides of the story", as if there is a justification for marching tanks into an otherwise peaceful european country. Territorial dispute is what sparked both world wars with idiots trying to expand their country's borders as if that would enlarge their micropenis.


Edit: the re-education underwent by countries engaged in WW2 assured a peaceful environment, except Russia who chose to skip those classes back then and never got up to speed with wtf is happening in the civilized world. And it shows today, the only large countries who want extra territory are Russia, NK and China because "historical reasons", which reasons are just as hilarious as Wargaming's "historical accuracy" and they all missed those post-WW2 "killing others for land is bad mkay" classes. China however is pretty damn good at navigating diplomacy and albeit they are salivating at the thought of anexing Taiwan they're not poking the hornet's nest too much and are behaving themselves (as much as their culture and other dogmas they adhere to permits them to). "Oddly" these countries are also countries that are under the rule of one person more or less and have strangled free speech and other personal liberties (some smothered, others completely dismembered). The Tiananmen Square massacre still isn't recognized in China for example and if you toot the horn too much on the subject there you get disappeared. And people there already started forgetting it ever happened.

[Sacul]

Edit: I did not imply by any stretch of the imagination Scholz is incompetent or doesn't know what to do. However suddenly boosting the defense budget like that gives worry vibes, which is unsettling. By comparison the US didn't even change their nuclear armanent status (officially, doesn't really mean anything tbh) - which looks like a relaxed, reassuring, confident stance.

Worry vibes? It takes years and years and years in peace time conditions to get the german (same for dutch) army up to the same standards of lets say 20 years ago.

The entire chain has been dismantled so much its not just throwing some money at it and it will be solved. Even going into war mode it is not like some idiots say 'converting a mercedes factory to a panzer line'.

This is not about Germany's military power, numbnuts, it's about the message sent - "we are kinda panicking, so we are throwing more monies at the problem".

Currently there's only one country hellbent on invading somebody else in Europe and it isn't Germany - and it's highly likely it will never again be Germany. The way their schools teach history means that the shit show that was WW2 will never happen again starting there.


However, Russia has a long history of dictatorship and manipulating the truth. Even now there are a LOT of people on the internet who want to hear "both sides of the story", as if there is a justification for marching tanks into an otherwise peaceful european country. Territorial dispute is what sparked both world wars with idiots trying to expand their country's borders as if that would enlarge their micropenis.


Edit: the re-education underwent by countries engaged in WW2 assured a peaceful environment, except Russia who chose to skip those classes back then and never got up to speed with wtf is happening in the civilized world. And it shows today, the only large countries who want extra territory are Russia, NK and China because "historical reasons", which reasons are just as hilarious as Wargaming's "historical accuracy" and they all missed those post-WW2 "killing others for land is bad mkay" classes. China however is pretty damn good at navigating diplomacy and albeit they are salivating at the thought of anexing Taiwan they're not poking the hornet's nest too much and are behaving themselves (as much as their culture and other dogmas they adhere to permits them to). "Oddly" these countries are also countries that are under the rule of one person more or less and have strangled free speech and other personal liberties (some smothered, others completely dismembered). The Tiananmen Square massacre still isn't recognized in China for example and if you toot the horn too much on the subject there you get disappeared. And people there already started forgetting it ever happened.

No need for a ad-hom just because i disagree my dude.

I also dont see it as a panic move to increase the Defense budget under these circumstances. Not going to argue with you on this. Be well Cosmin <3

[Redmoore]

I suspect that the Russian tactics are changing, from a plan to quickly neutralise the Ukrainan Government before installing a puppet regime who'd hand over the Donbest and agree to it and the Crimea becoming part of Russia, to doing as much damage as possible so that the surviving Ukrainian Government will spend all its time and resources rebuilding rather than spending it on the military, and probably requiring the western nations to pour in billions in reconstruction aid.

Because there is no way any pro-Russian puppet Government can survive in Ukraine without a huge number of Russian forces remaining to prop them up. In part the Ukrainians handing out weapons to anyone willing to fight means that you now have an armed populous who has shown that they are willing to fight and die to get the Russians out.

Supporting a Ukrainian puppet Government would require the Russians to spend huge amounts of money, money that they increasingly won't have. Putin will be painfully aware that it was economics that brought down the USSR. If Russia cannot pay its troops and civillian employees with Rubles that are worth anything then things will start to go bad fast. Oppression only works when the oppressors keep getting their regular pay cheques.

So I suspect that Putin will drive his military to take enough of Ukraine so he can declare "Mission Over" and pull back, probably holding onto the corridor linking the Crimea to other Russian occupied territory in the hope that the West gets bored or Trump runs in 2024 or some other disaster allows things to go back to business as usual.

Interestingly the Chinese don't seem happy with Russia's actions, hence the abstensions in the UN. No doubt their plans for a takeover of Taiwan have been scraped because now they'll need to take the new level of sanctions into account. Taiwan wll also have seen the importance of holding out to prevent a fait accompli and thereby allowing the rest of the world time to react.

China apparently gave Russia US supplied Intel.

[Cosmin]

No need for a ad-hom just because i disagree my dude.

I also dont see it as a panic move to increase the Defense budget under these circumstances. Not going to argue with you on this. Be well Cosmin <3

It wasn't meant as one, read it lovingly and you'll get exactly what I meant. Unfortunately I can't transmit the tone via a post, I didn't mean to actually have a go at you :-)

My post was just trying to clarify my stance, because it was very late and I didn't realise that it was interpretable in a different way than the one I meant <3

[Yankunytjatjara]

Have I missed him or Putin hasn't shown up in the news for days now?

[Hel OWeen]

Unrelated to the current discussion, but I didn't know that this is a (good) thing: Google Fact Check Explorer, basically a search engine specialized in pulling up results from fact checking sites.

E.g. for Ukraine: https://toolbox.google.com/factcheck.../ukraine;hl=en

[dzajic]

Russians can recruit occupation forces from loyal Russians lining in DNR and LNR and later from the rest of Ukraine. Add in some Russian and Belarusian regular forces and some Chechen headcutters and you have enough forces for a brutal occupation while still being able to launch your next war of conquest in a couple of years.

Though I'm expecting them to go for a package deal and take Moldova during this campaign and Georgia in a couple of years.

[Hel OWeen]

Currently there's only one country hellbent on invading somebody else in Europe and it isn't Germany - and it's highly likely it will never again be Germany. The way their schools teach history means that the shit show that was WW2 will never happen again starting there.

I wish that still was the case so clearly as it was when I was in school.

Not that schools (presumably) still teach the same stuff nowadays. But large parts of Germany's "coward stance", not sending its military into other countries over the past decades was also a result of a populace's experience and therefore strong opinion about what war actually means. Keep in mind that when chancellor Adenauer formed the Bundeswehr, the overwhelming part of Germany's people were against it; stating that Germany should never have an army at all. "Nie mehr Krieg!" ("Never ever war again")

But as the generations who have experienced WW2 or its immediate dire aftermath are fading away, populism and "make Germany great again" is on the rise. Just like almost everywhere else. I mean, we have literally have the Nazis (AfD) in our parliaments again.

On top of what I learned in school, I had the horrible stories told to me by my parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts. And living in and around a small town in the southwest of Germany, my family didn't even experience anything really terrible in comparison to others. E.g. there were only a few bomb raids on my hometown from late 1944 to early 1945. In total 50 civilians were killed in those bombings. Compared to other cities, that's nothing at all.

The only time my hometown actually saw "action" were a few days early in 1945 when German troops retreated from allied forces eastwards and American forces followed them. Though no major fights happened. By that time, most German soldiers just wanted to stay alive, knowing fully well the war was lost and the defeat (=peace) is near. As a result, the city was abandoned by German troops and has been taken over without fights by the allies on March 20th, 1945. End of (war) story.

One remarkable fact though and a lesson that these days with social media and fake news is more valuable than ever: my grandma told me that they were terrified of black G.I.'s. The German propaganda literally portrayed them as baby-eating, women-raping savages. So when the first black G.I. turned up at their home, as a mother of four daughters, she expected the worst. Only to find out that the black G.I.'s were the kindest, always offering food and candies for the kids and lessening the fear and stress with cheerful friendly big smiles.

/me steps off the soap box

[Fara]

Currently there's only one country hellbent on invading somebody else in Europe and it isn't Germany - and it's highly likely it will never again be Germany. The way their schools teach history means that the shit show that was WW2 will never happen again starting there.

But as the generations who have experienced WW2 or its immediate dire aftermath are fading away, populism and "make Germany great again" is on the rise. Just like almost everywhere else. I mean, we have literally have the Nazis (AfD) in our parliaments again.

/me steps off the soap box

Correction, you have had literal Nazis in parliament before the AFD existed, i was too lazy to count but gonna say 50+ according to https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_...C3%A4tig_waren
The AFD is a populist right party, like they exist in every other western country or Russia for that matter. This is not a german specific issue. Calling them literal Nazis in my mind is a bit of an overstretch, but I can understand why a german would do so.

I fundamentaly disagree with your view on "make germany great again" and the militarization support, i.e. that there's this trend to german geopolitical aspiritation and rising patriotism or whatever you want to call. None of that has been felt from a neighbouring country pov until the Ukraine war. Remember, the last things I heard of the Bundeswehr here were stories about enabling IFVs for pregnant women and hanging down pictures of Bundeskanzler in their barracks. That is not the sign of a militarised society.