Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[Miep]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

Yeah well... Remember 1989? The soviet union lost zhe arms race. But that doesnt mean they didnt Produce metric shit tons of weapons and ammo. If russia has anything then an emdless supply of 152mm shells

[rufuske]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

Yeah well... Remember 1989? The soviet union lost zhe arms race. But that doesnt mean they didnt Produce metric shit tons of weapons and ammo. If russia has anything then an emdless supply of 152mm shells

Belarus was politely asked to send 20 wagons worth of arty ammo. If that doesn't solve debate of russian stockpiles idk what will. And russian ammo depots are blowing up even more frequently last few days...

[rufuske]

Oh god, found the Reddit thread, I'm dying here.

Link for the curious.

The one on r/ukraine was even better but mods deleted it.

Found it:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...eral_67_as_he/

Apparently it's fake news but still funny.

[Malcanis]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

Yeah well... Remember 1989? The soviet union lost zhe arms race. But that doesnt mean they didnt Produce metric shit tons of weapons and ammo. If russia has anything then an emdless supply of 152mm shells

Since when they've used an endless supply of 152mm shells in multiple campaigns (they used a hell of a lot in Chechnya), and I flatly don't believe that they've been produced at anything like the rate since the Warsaw pact days.

There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that Russian arty has a pretty high dud rate, which is consistent with them using old ordinance. My take is that they're very deep into their shell reserves.

I'm pretty sure we're only a few weeks at most away from the "Is only two Oblasts, why you have to be so mad?" phase

[rufuske]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

Yeah well... Remember 1989? The soviet union lost zhe arms race. But that doesnt mean they didnt Produce metric shit tons of weapons and ammo. If russia has anything then an emdless supply of 152mm shells

Since when they've used an endless supply of 152mm shells in multiple campaigns (they used a hell of a lot in Chechnya), and I flatly don't believe that they've been produced at anything like the rate since the Warsaw pact days.

There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that Russian arty has a pretty high dud rate, which is consistent with them using old ordinance. My take is that they're very deep into their shell reserves.

I'm pretty sure we're only a few weeks at most away from the "Is only two Oblasts, why you have to be so mad?" phase

"Why you always gang up on poor russia" this time, please.

[Lief Siddhe]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

Yeah well... Remember 1989? The soviet union lost zhe arms race. But that doesnt mean they didnt Produce metric shit tons of weapons and ammo. If russia has anything then an emdless supply of 152mm shells

Friendly reminder that Russia didn't lose the arms race but the economic one. my 2 cents

[Candy Crush]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

Yeah well... Remember 1989? The soviet union lost zhe arms race. But that doesnt mean they didnt Produce metric shit tons of weapons and ammo. If russia has anything then an emdless supply of 152mm shells

Friendly reminder that Russia didn't lose the arms race but the economic one. my 2 cents

I remember Red Army leaving Germany in freight cars, they didn't look victorious, but we even held parades to get rid of them asap

[Malcanis]

Well they've lost both now

T62s kek

[halka]

[/IMG]

Oh neat, we had one of those bags at home it's where gran kept her knitting.

[Miep]

Sooo what are failheaps predictiond how and when this russian shitshow will end?

[Lowa [NSN]]

I've already said it basically but... not sure how it will end properly but not before 2026.

[Hel OWeen]

In a war of attrition, which we seemed to have entered a couple of weeks ago, Russia will keep the upper hand in the long run. Which doesn't mean they win this war, but rather it morphing into a North/South Korean like stalemate, with the ongoing or occasional local fighting happening*).

Even assuming RU can't upkeep the artillery firing of now due to ammunition supply issues, all they need to do is dig in, defend and keep hold of what they've got now. UA won't be able to gain larger territory parts back, because it'll lack the manpower to go on the offensive.

RU still has and most likely will keep the air superiority, so e.g. massive armored UA attacks might not be feasible. Though in the long run UA will have the artillery (range) advantage ( = assuming most support promises by western countries will be fulfilled eventually), arti doesn't win back territory. You still need boots on the ground for that.

*) One thing to keep in mind, of which at least I wasn't aware of: there has been constant ongoing fighting happening in the east of UA since 2014. I recently learned (German vid) that the definition/distinction of actual war, in comparison to an armed conflict, is 1,000 deadly causalities/yr.. In that regard, UA is at war since 2014.

[VARRAKK]

How the war is going to function for the rest of the year is unknown.

USSR Consumption rates, they are spending more munitions then they can produce. How long does their stock last?
How many %'s of their consumption rates can they produce?
How will the USSR continue to wage a smash & grab war when they can't turn everything in front of them into a ruin?
It's been hunting season for months now on anything with an engine. So how to wage war? Infantry swarm?

I don't see Ukraine running out of ammo, every day that passes they are more into NATO standard.
And we do have the production capacity to keep them well fed.

[Sacul]

In a war of attrition, which we seemed to have entered a couple of weeks ago, Russia will keep the upper hand in the long run. Which doesn't mean they win this war, but rather it morphing into a North/South Korean like stalemate, with the ongoing or occasional local fighting happening*).

*) One thing to keep in mind, of which at least I wasn't aware of: there has been constant ongoing fighting happening in the east of UA since 2014. I recently learned (German vid) that the definition/distinction of actual war, in comparison to an armed conflict, is 1,000 deadly causalities/yr.. In that regard, UA is at war since 2014.

Glad you put a asterix there. Yes UKr and Rus have been in a shooting war. Just 1 week before Putin started this special campaign the OSCE (the watchers of the front) said they were gonna pull back because to much shelling back and forth and small arms fire in the WWI type trenches (basicly Donbas).

They also said Ukr shot the most shells by a very wide margin.

[Joe Appleby]

The MOD daily updates are always interesting. It reads like Russia has a bigger problem with manpower than you guys assume.

[Candy Crush]

How the war is going to function for the rest of the year is unknown.

USSR Consumption rates, they are spending more munitions then they can produce. How long does their stock last?
How many %'s of their consumption rates can they produce?
How will the USSR continue to wage a smash & grab war when they can't turn everything in front of them into a ruin?
It's been hunting season for months now on anything with an engine. So how to wage war? Infantry swarm?

I don't see Ukraine running out of ammo, every day that passes they are more into NATO standard.
And we do have the production capacity to keep them well fed.

Amateurs speak about ammo, professionals speak about toilet papers and cigarettes.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/se...rriors-ukraine

[depili]

Enough horse trading has been done and Erdogan isn't against our NATO membership anymore.

[Nordstern]

Enough horse trading has been done and Erdogan isn't against our NATO membership anymore.

I wouldn't be surprised if the head of a hegemonic superpower told him "You vote them in, or we all vote you out."

[hunter V]

Enough horse trading has been done and Erdogan isn't against our NATO membership anymore.

I wouldn't be surprised if the head of a hegemonic superpower told him "You vote them in, or we all vote you out."

Edrogan is a cunt but he controls one of the most important locations in the world at the moment. What most likely happened was State department planes literally full of cash have finally landed in Ankara.

[Maximillian]

Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed a memorandum that I assume addresses the Kurdish issue and the ban on weapon sales - .i.e. Turkey got what it wanted.