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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #21501

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    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors.
    Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    This

    I think the bran drain, for a change not to usa but mostly baltic states, is most detrimental for RUS in the med term.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  2. #21502

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    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors.
    Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    This

    I think the bran drain, for a change not to usa but mostly baltic states, is most detrimental for RUS in the med term.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  3. #21503

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    Quote Originally Posted by Overspark View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    Russia bombed the Ukraine logistics and economy to pieces.
    Only parts of it. Other parts (mainly in the west) are mostly fine. Because Ukraine is a gigantic country (roughly as big as France) it'll take a while before the entire country is affected. One thing that Russia did do well is to cut off most of the transport routes to other countries, so that's now one of the bigger issues for the still-functioning parts of Ukraine.
    The most of Ukr oil/gas and iron w/e is in the east so the areas in the west like Lviv dont matter. Rus is destroying what they want to conquer now. Even if they get those areas it will take them 10s of billions to get that infrastructure profitable again. The azovsteel in mariopoel factory or now the new azovgaz or whatever its called will be billions in replacement, looking at the destruction rebuild does not seem a real option. (imagine the failed to detonate shells)
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  4. #21504

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    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors. Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.

  5. #21505
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    I think that Russia is preparing to lose, at least in the terms of gaining new territory. No one will recognise Russian anexations whatever dumb tricks they pull like independence votes folowed by votes to join Russia held at gunpoint.

    That is why they are laying waste to such a vast area. They don't give a fuck about the supposed pro-Russian seperatists. They want to cripple a economic competitor in energy and food production and leaving a wasteland that will require tens of billions just to rebuild will remove money that could be invested in industries that would advance Ukraine economically.

    Russia will also bank on being able to return to a survivable status quo without undergoing any internal changes or requirement to suffer the consequences for their actions as other problems like energy costs and food shortages will take precident once the fighting stops.

    The big unknown for Russia is whether the Ukrainians keep fighting regardless. If the Ukrainians are prepared to keep the war going and support from outside remains adequate then Russia will be trapped in a war they cannot win but cannot end without the fall of the regime in Moscow.

  6. #21506
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    It's not so much about crippling an economic competitor. It's about making sure that there isn't a relatively prosperous, growing state of people who look and sound very much like Russians that has growing economic ties to the West and doesn't need a corrupt gangster state lead by a strongman dictator to function.

    Because when the Western Russians can see that right next door then they might start to think troublesome thoughts, like why do we need to put up with a corrupt gangster state lead by a strongman dictator to function? Putin was OK with tolerating with an "independent" Ukraine when it was a corrupt incompetent mess like Belarus with a leadership that depended on support from Russia to maintain control. As soon as they started cleaning up corruption, having actual elections and trying to do trade deals with the EU that was a big no-no. That was the "existential threat" they keep fucking blathering on about. Slavs can't be allowed a working functional democracy, everyone knows that!

    All the stuff about gas being discovered and shit like that was a big extra incentive, of course. But that was 'opportunity' not 'threat'.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  7. #21507

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    in the meantime....


  8. #21508

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    That is why they are laying waste to such a vast area. They don't give a fuck about the supposed pro-Russian seperatists.
    They don't give a fuck about their own people, let alone a separatist state's. Russia's current approach is their standard way of fighting a war, they've done the same to their own cities when separatists started to become a problem. Remember, the people don't matter, only the state.

  9. #21509
    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    And [the Russians] have a near endless supply of artillery and ammunition while the Ukraine is running out of both.
    /doubt. Why would artillery be the one thing in the Russian army not impacted by their terrible maintenance, readiness, corruption and attrition issue?

    Similarly it would surprise me quite a lot if Ukraine didnt have more artillery now than at the start of the war.

  10. #21510
    Yankunytjatjara's Avatar
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    Stalker 2 will be pretty realistic

    My solo pvp video: Yankunytjude... That attitude!
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  11. #21511
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    Stalker 2 will be pretty realistic

    My solo pvp video: Yankunytjude... That attitude!
    Solo/small gang proposal: Ship Velocity Vectors

  12. #21512
    Miriam Sasko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post
    And [the Russians] have a near endless supply of artillery and ammunition while the Ukraine is running out of both.
    /doubt. Why would artillery be the one thing in the Russian army not impacted by their terrible maintenance, readiness, corruption and attrition issue?
    Because their artillery, at its core, is relatively simple tech. They just have a shit-ton of it and, apparently, pretty much full air control by now, at least in the east.

  13. #21513

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    One thing to watch for is also russia running out of drones. They have already been pulling drones from the civilian emergency services to the front line.

    Also using anti-shipping missiles from the 1960's on land targets isn't a good sign on the stocks of missiles. Previously they have fired more modern anti-shipping missiles to ground targets after the iskander strikes stopped. Russia is also pulling tanks made in the 1960's to the front lines currently.

    Fighting morale in the ukrainian troops remains really high while russian troop morale seems to continue sinking.

  14. #21514

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors. Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    Your correct more or less, the consequences for Russia in the long term will be quite harsh. But Russia is by far the biggest country on earth with vast ressouces. ... Right now russia is selling its oil to india an europe buys it from india. Its ridicilious but we cant go without russian ressources.

    An all of it simply doesnt matter for the outcome of the war.
    Troops, munition and material will decide it.
    And of all russia has huge reserves. Ukraine is taking huge losses last weeks i fear. Russia might not win the occupation but i will win this war if we dont start massiv, and i mean massiv support.
    We can do without rus rus gas and oil. We in the west have to accept that the age of glutton energy (since the 70s) is over. That was always the outcome just 40 or 60 years ahead of time.

    Also Rus is selling gas/oil to India at a 30/40% discount, imagine what the cuttroath chinese (sp?) are getting, chinaman knows how to negotiate its known and documented the last 30 year.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  15. #21515

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors. Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    Your correct more or less, the consequences for Russia in the long term will be quite harsh. But Russia is by far the biggest country on earth with vast ressouces. ... Right now russia is selling its oil to india an europe buys it from india. Its ridicilious but we cant go without russian ressources.

    An all of it simply doesnt matter for the outcome of the war.
    Troops, munition and material will decide it.
    And of all russia has huge reserves. Ukraine is taking huge losses last weeks i fear. Russia might not win the occupation but i will win this war if we dont start massiv, and i mean massiv support.
    We can do without rus rus gas and oil. We in the west have to accept that the age of glutton energy (since the 70s) is over. That was always the outcome just 40 or 60 years ahead of time.

    Also Rus is selling gas/oil to India at a 30/40% discount, imagine what the cuttroath chinese (sp?) are getting, chinaman knows how to negotiate its known and documented the last 30 year.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  16. #21516

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    Dont know what the cost of gas mining is in Rus but EU total still pays Rus 7 billion a MONTH for the gas/oil.

    responding to Miep who is below me grrrrr forum
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  17. #21517
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors. Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    Your correct more or less, the consequences for Russia in the long term will be quite harsh. But Russia is by far the biggest country on earth with vast ressouces. ... Right now russia is selling its oil to india an europe buys it from india. Its ridicilious but we cant go without russian ressources.

    An all of it simply doesnt matter for the outcome of the war.
    Troops, munition and material will decide it.

    And of all russia has huge reserves. Ukraine is taking huge losses last weeks i fear. Russia might not win the occupation but i will win this war if we dont start massiv, and i mean massiv support.
    Russia had huge reserves. They weren't infinite and they've burned through most of their good stuff now. They wouldn't be throwing tanks that were built when my dad was a teenager in if they had any decent tanks left anywhere else. They wouldn't be using 50 year old anti-shipping cruise missiles against low-value ground targets if they had anything more suitable. What they still have a fuckn lot of is tube artillery and 152mm ammo. One assumes that the UKR military is now prioritising those as targets (just as the Russians will prioritise defending them. Once those fancy schmancy very long range SPAGs get seriously on the case, Russian artillery will be degraded like their infantry and tanks have been.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  18. #21518
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors. Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    Your correct more or less, the consequences for Russia in the long term will be quite harsh. But Russia is by far the biggest country on earth with vast ressouces. ... Right now russia is selling its oil to india an europe buys it from india. Its ridicilious but we cant go without russian ressources.

    An all of it simply doesnt matter for the outcome of the war.
    Troops, munition and material will decide it.

    And of all russia has huge reserves. Ukraine is taking huge losses last weeks i fear. Russia might not win the occupation but i will win this war if we dont start massiv, and i mean massiv support.
    Russia had huge reserves. They weren't infinite and they've burned through most of their good stuff now. They wouldn't be throwing tanks that were built when my dad was a teenager in if they had any decent tanks left anywhere else. They wouldn't be using 50 year old anti-shipping cruise missiles against low-value ground targets if they had anything more suitable. What they still have a fuckn lot of is tube artillery and 152mm ammo. One assumes that the UKR military is now prioritising those as targets (just as the Russians will prioritise defending them. Once those fancy schmancy very long range SPAGs get seriously on the case, Russian artillery will be degraded like their infantry and tanks have been.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  19. #21519

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    Another avenue for supporting Ukraine: https://postmark.ukrposhta.ua/index....te=common/home you can add a donation during checkout, caveats are that the order might never arrive...

  20. #21520
    Donor Miep's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    He is quite wrong. For example with the ruble, the trading volumes have shrunken to about 1/1000th of the normal, so for a while still the dragonian capital controls the RU central bank has imposed are holding. So much of the apparent "no the sanctions aren't hitting us" is just smoke and mirrors. Currently forecasts are that the russian economy is taking back about 20 or so years of growth and progress.

    The moscow stock exhange hasn't crashed just because you currently can't get any money out from there, you can sell your stocks, but you can't take the money out, only invest in other russian stocks and there are heavy limits on trades.

    The brain drain out of russia has also been immense. Most of the smart guys that haven't gotten high up on the corruption ladder have left already, and not coming back.

    But he is true on the case that in this war both russia and ukraine have lost, but the will to rebuild and rebound ukraine up is much stronger than with russia.
    Your correct more or less, the consequences for Russia in the long term will be quite harsh. But Russia is by far the biggest country on earth with vast ressouces. ... Right now russia is selling its oil to india an europe buys it from india. Its ridicilious but we cant go without russian ressources.

    An all of it simply doesnt matter for the outcome of the war.
    Troops, munition and material will decide it.

    And of all russia has huge reserves. Ukraine is taking huge losses last weeks i fear. Russia might not win the occupation but i will win this war if we dont start massiv, and i mean massiv support.
    When I see a bird that walks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck id call it a duck.
    And if the bird denies to be a duck it is a russian duck.

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