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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #21781
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Thanks for the summary, i assumed that most of russia's news about "our economy is doing well" were propaganda anyway but to know how bad it is in reality is good.

    The link will shut down trolls a lot, they will never red a 70 page long paper.
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  2. #21782
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Thanks for the summary, i assumed that most of russia's news about "our economy is doing well" were propaganda anyway but to know how bad it is in reality is good.

    The link will shut down trolls a lot, they will never red a 70 page long paper.
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  3. #21783

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    There does seem to be an odd set of expectations with sanctions. A lot of the talk of sanctions being a failure seemed to be predicated on the notion that they would produce an instant and visible collapse of the Russian economy and bring a swift halt to the war. That always seemed unrealistic to me.

  4. #21784
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    Remember that quite a few of those figures were only up to the end of May, so those ones only show the effect of the first 2 waves of sanctions, and only the first 3 months. Now I suppose there's a universe where 2 more months of those sanctions plus the even harsher 3rd wave didn't make things worse faster, but I don't think it's this one. I'll bet that emigration outflow didn't stop at 500,000 people, for a start.

    Now it's rather clearer why Putin pushed the "EVERYONE WITH EVERYTHING" campaign in June/July and they've been using irreplaceable naval cruise missiles to blow up primary schools. He needs to push Ukraine to give some kind of deal, anything that doesn't look like a total defeat, something, and soon.

    I hope you've all been stocking up on quilts and blankets and warm clothing. Open your windows and make sure that everything is ventilated and dry, and give your kitchen and bathroom a dousing with anti-mold spray now, because you sure aren't going to want to be opening them much when the weather turns, with what we're paying for domestic energy. Make sure you've got a good amount of shelf stable food stashed away, especially if it's stuff you particularly like and don't want to do without. It's going to be a bad, cold winter for us in the UK and Europe.


    But. It's going to be worse in for the ordinary people in Russia. Considerably worse.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  5. #21785
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    Remember that quite a few of those figures were only up to the end of May, so those ones only show the effect of the first 2 waves of sanctions, and only the first 3 months. Now I suppose there's a universe where 2 more months of those sanctions plus the even harsher 3rd wave didn't make things worse faster, but I don't think it's this one. I'll bet that emigration outflow didn't stop at 500,000 people, for a start.

    Now it's rather clearer why Putin pushed the "EVERYONE WITH EVERYTHING" campaign in June/July and they've been using irreplaceable naval cruise missiles to blow up primary schools. He needs to push Ukraine to give some kind of deal, anything that doesn't look like a total defeat, something, and soon.

    I hope you've all been stocking up on quilts and blankets and warm clothing. Open your windows and make sure that everything is ventilated and dry, and give your kitchen and bathroom a dousing with anti-mold spray now, because you sure aren't going to want to be opening them much when the weather turns, with what we're paying for domestic energy. Make sure you've got a good amount of shelf stable food stashed away, especially if it's stuff you particularly like and don't want to do without. It's going to be a bad, cold winter for us in the UK and Europe.


    But. It's going to be worse in for the ordinary people in Russia. Considerably worse.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  6. #21786
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    The irony being that by cutting the gas they sell to Europe by 80% the Russians have imposed harsher sanctions on themselves than the EU was capable of imposing. Buying all that blackmarket tech is expensive and they have dramatically reduced one of their biggest foreign money earners.
    Last edited by Maximillian; July 30 2022 at 12:36:49 PM.

  7. #21787

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    The irony being that by cutting the gas they sell to Europe by 80% the Russians have imposed harsher sanctions on themselves than the EU was capable of imposing. Buying all that blackmarket tech is expensive and they have dramatically reduced one of their biggest foreign money earners.
    Normal volumes would also have allowed europe to stockpile enough gas to coast over the winter even with no imports, so Putin is quite clearly keeping his foot on the gas-hose to apply maximum pressure for the winter heating season. But then again cutting the gas is pretty much the only leverage he still has for europe, if the supply goes away there is nothing left other than nuclear weapons.

  8. #21788

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    The irony being that by cutting the gas they sell to Europe by 80% the Russians have imposed harsher sanctions on themselves than the EU was capable of imposing. Buying all that blackmarket tech is expensive and they have dramatically reduced one of their biggest foreign money earners.
    Normal volumes would also have allowed europe to stockpile enough gas to coast over the winter even with no imports, so Putin is quite clearly keeping his foot on the gas-hose to apply maximum pressure for the winter heating season. But then again cutting the gas is pretty much the only leverage he still has for europe, if the supply goes away there is nothing left other than nuclear weapons.

  9. #21789
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    Unfortunately this sounds to me like more and more likely to devolve into full out nuclear war. If Ruzzia can't actually save face and "win" something with this invasion that literally crippled them I am not putting it past them to go full retard and push the buttons on the nukes. Either towards UA alone or everybody whom they felt wronged by - and that basically includes most of Europe and the US as well.

    It will be a harsh winter but what I'm afraid of is that winter will go on indefinitely. Let's hope not.
    Guns make the news, science doesn't.

  10. #21790
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmin View Post
    Unfortunately this sounds to me like more and more likely to devolve into full out nuclear war. If Ruzzia can't actually save face and "win" something with this invasion that literally crippled them I am not putting it past them to go full retard and push the buttons on the nukes. Either towards UA alone or everybody whom they felt wronged by - and that basically includes most of Europe and the US as well.

    It will be a harsh winter but what I'm afraid of is that winter will go on indefinitely. Let's hope not.
    Yeah but on the plus side, we don't have to worry about anything else then. Let the cockroach people puzzle it out in a few million years.

    Seriously, how the fuck do we keep coming back to this "We have to let Putin do as he wants and invade who he likes and not hurt his feeling or he'll nuuuuuuuuke us all." Fuck off we do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  11. #21791
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmin View Post
    Unfortunately this sounds to me like more and more likely to devolve into full out nuclear war. If Ruzzia can't actually save face and "win" something with this invasion that literally crippled them I am not putting it past them to go full retard and push the buttons on the nukes. Either towards UA alone or everybody whom they felt wronged by - and that basically includes most of Europe and the US as well.

    It will be a harsh winter but what I'm afraid of is that winter will go on indefinitely. Let's hope not.
    Yeah but on the plus side, we don't have to worry about anything else then. Let the cockroach people puzzle it out in a few million years.

    Seriously, how the fuck do we keep coming back to this "We have to let Putin do as he wants and invade who he likes and not hurt his feeling or he'll nuuuuuuuuke us all." Fuck off we do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  12. #21792
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmin View Post
    Unfortunately this sounds to me like more and more likely to devolve into full out nuclear war. If Ruzzia can't actually save face and "win" something with this invasion that literally crippled them I am not putting it past them to go full retard and push the buttons on the nukes. Either towards UA alone or everybody whom they felt wronged by - and that basically includes most of Europe and the US as well.

    It will be a harsh winter but what I'm afraid of is that winter will go on indefinitely. Let's hope not.
    Yeah but on the plus side, we don't have to worry about anything else then. Let the cockroach people puzzle it out in a few million years.

    Seriously, how the fuck do we keep coming back to this "We have to let Putin do as he wants and invade who he likes and not hurt his feeling or he'll nuuuuuuuuke us all." Fuck off we do.
    I am unsure how this is called in game theory but it sounds quite familiar, perhaps I should revisit some of the books I read on it.

    Issue is a lot of people are literally brainwashed to be afraid of mother Ruzzia and that fear is showing now, literally all the baltic states and ex-communist countries are trembling in their breeches because they know shit going down will affect them the most. It's not unlike it isn't already, but some people can't find the courage because the remembrance of papa Stalin is soooo omnipresent, and they're lashing out against the west. Because, you know, having Coca Cola and a lot more freedom than what happens in the east right now is bad. It's better to drink potato vodka and eat your sandals than being able to openly protest against your government and so on and so forth.

    A lot of the refugees being absolute knobs isn't helping either, I have some stories you wouldn't believe. The entitlement is simply jaw dropping, granted not all of them are alike obviously but it may put some people off even trying to help.

    It's all pretty fucked up so this week I'm planning on a drinking game and see what happens ^^
    Guns make the news, science doesn't.

  13. #21793

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    Digging too deep into game theory makes you depressed and sad. A good documentary series on that vein is "The Trap" from BBC. Looking at rational selfish actors democracy just doesn't work, but fortunately in general humans aren't like that so the situation isn't as grim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tr...ish_TV_series) all of the documentaries from the same maker are worth watching

  14. #21794
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Yep, game theory in theory works but in reality there aren't 100% rational actors. Although game theory accounts to that your own experience should tell you, there're always actors who just wants to "ruin your game" consequences for your own be damned.

    Putin isn't a rational actor at all, although chances for a nuclear winter are very low you can't brush aside the possible use of tactical nukes on Ukraine soil. Think about this what happens, if Putin detonates a "warning" nuke somewhere in the ocean or desert.
    Anyway you can't allow Putin to scare us with that the consequences will be devastating one way or the other.


    As this war is going on for so long take this as a reminder to donate:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...m_source=share

    I wanted a T-Shirt to support Ukraine but google just lead you to amazon or other shitty sites. Just use this site, it's legitimate:
    https://www.saintjavelin.com/

    and i ordered my favourite already
    https://www.saintjavelin.com/product...s-adult-tshirt
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  15. #21795
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Yep, game theory in theory works but in reality there aren't 100% rational actors. Although game theory accounts to that your own experience should tell you, there're always actors who just wants to "ruin your game" consequences for your own be damned.

    Putin isn't a rational actor at all, although chances for a nuclear winter are very low you can't brush aside the possible use of tactical nukes on Ukraine soil. Think about this what happens, if Putin detonates a "warning" nuke somewhere in the ocean or desert.
    Anyway you can't allow Putin to scare us with that the consequences will be devastating one way or the other.


    As this war is going on for so long take this as a reminder to donate:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...m_source=share

    I wanted a T-Shirt to support Ukraine but google just lead you to amazon or other shitty sites. Just use this site, it's legitimate:
    https://www.saintjavelin.com/

    and i ordered my favourite already
    https://www.saintjavelin.com/product...s-adult-tshirt
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  16. #21796

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    I am proud of my t-shirt with The Stamp on it, straight from UA post office, shirt itself was quite cheap (and now sold out), the blank donation box wasn't that cheap on checkout...

  17. #21797
    VARRAKK's Avatar
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    https://liveuamap.com/

    This live map is very cool and informative!
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  18. #21798
    VARRAKK's Avatar
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    https://liveuamap.com/

    This live map is very cool and informative!
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  19. #21799
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmin View Post
    Unfortunately this sounds to me like more and more likely to devolve into full out nuclear war. If Ruzzia can't actually save face and "win" something with this invasion that literally crippled them I am not putting it past them to go full retard and push the buttons on the nukes. Either towards UA alone or everybody whom they felt wronged by - and that basically includes most of Europe and the US as well.

    It will be a harsh winter but what I'm afraid of is that winter will go on indefinitely. Let's hope not.
    Yeah but on the plus side, we don't have to worry about anything else then. Let the cockroach people puzzle it out in a few million years.

    Seriously, how the fuck do we keep coming back to this "We have to let Putin do as he wants and invade who he likes and not hurt his feeling or he'll nuuuuuuuuke us all." Fuck off we do.
    I am unsure how this is called in game theory but it sounds quite familiar, perhaps I should revisit some of the books I read on it.

    Issue is a lot of people are literally brainwashed to be afraid of mother Ruzzia and that fear is showing now, literally all the baltic states and ex-communist countries are trembling in their breeches because they know shit going down will affect them the most. It's not unlike it isn't already, but some people can't find the courage because the remembrance of papa Stalin is soooo omnipresent, and they're lashing out against the west. Because, you know, having Coca Cola and a lot more freedom than what happens in the east right now is bad. It's better to drink potato vodka and eat your sandals than being able to openly protest against your government and so on and so forth.

    A lot of the refugees being absolute knobs isn't helping either, I have some stories you wouldn't believe. The entitlement is simply jaw dropping, granted not all of them are alike obviously but it may put some people off even trying to help.

    It's all pretty fucked up so this week I'm planning on a drinking game and see what happens ^^
    If we give Putin the idea that he can invade European countries and intimidate NATO into basically letting him get away with it then what happens a year or two down the line when he bumrushes one or more of the Baltic countries? "Well we can't make him look bad or feel threatened or he'll nuke us, I guess we have to let him have Estonia and a chunk of Lithuania. Shame but whaddya going to do?" In fact what would even be the point of NATO then? Better let him have Poland too, we don't want to take any chances.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  20. #21800
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    Having lived through 30 something years of the Cold War you realise that proxy wars do not lead to WW3 as everyone loses if that happens. Putin may or may not be declining with age but he is surrounded by people who will be turned to ash or will spend their last days in a bunker that stinks of potatoes and BO if nuclear weapons are used.

    It would require an genuine invasion of Russia's territory by NATO before nuclear weapons were even seriously considered as a viable option. The Russians like to scare people because they are actually weak both economically and militarially. It's a bluff and it needs to be called.

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