Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[Lowa [NSN]]

Ukraine pulling back once again from a key city. Also did see another note where they again confirm the lose 200 people a day.
Ukraine also reporting Russia firing about 50-60k shells per day which is 10x to what Ukraine do/can do, not enough ammo ready or being produced nor enough equipment to match the fire power.
So in regards to earlier discussions, Russia can sustain this a lot longer than Ukraine, including man power, regardless of (current level) of western material being sent.

And once/when/IF Ukraine can hold on until Russia cant no more its still the job of getting lost territory back. This shit show will go on for years.

[Malcanis]

There is no way that Russia can sustain 50-60k artillery shells a day. There isn't enough production capacity on the planet. At some point they will exhaust their artillery advantage, and then we will see what happens.

[Candy Crush]

If they are firing that many shells a day - they have to be piled up somewhere. Locate the piles and destroy them with HIMARS.

[Solana]

Has there been any evidence of other nations selling/borrowing/bartering military equipment to Russia?
I'm talking something akin to a "For X barrels of crude you get Y boxes of relevant ammunition in return"-deal.

[depili]

Has there been any evidence of other nations selling/borrowing/bartering military equipment to Russia?
I'm talking something akin to a "For X barrels of crude you get Y boxes of relevant ammunition in return"-deal.

So far there have been zero reported military aid received from abroad by Russia. Even China has stayed out of it.

[VARRAKK]

Ukraine pulling back once again from a key city. Also did see another note where they again confirm the lose 200 people a day.
Ukraine also reporting Russia firing about 50-60k shells per day which is 10x to what Ukraine do/can do, not enough ammo ready or being produced nor enough equipment to match the fire power.
So in regards to earlier discussions, Russia can sustain this a lot longer than Ukraine, including man power, regardless of (current level) of western material being sent.

And once/when/IF Ukraine can hold on until Russia cant no more its still the job of getting lost territory back. This shit show will go on for years.

Abandoning Severodonetsk make sense, over the weeks the siege has lasted, the city is erased off the map.
Why fight over pebbles? Another pyrrhic victory for Russia, cost them so much resources to take a ruin.

On the west side of Severodonetsk is a big river, and its sister city on top of a 150m high hill.
How they going to Lysychansk without catastrophic losses, will be a puzzle.
This city they will not give up, even in ruins it will still be a very strong defensive position.

Longer range artillery, with a height advantage will have free reign over Russian position, especially as they will try to cross the river (they destroyed all the bridges for).

[Lallante]

Ukraine pulling back once again from a key city. Also did see another note where they again confirm the lose 200 people a day.
Ukraine also reporting Russia firing about 50-60k shells per day which is 10x to what Ukraine do/can do, not enough ammo ready or being produced nor enough equipment to match the fire power.
So in regards to earlier discussions, Russia can sustain this a lot longer than Ukraine, including man power, regardless of (current level) of western material being sent.

And once/when/IF Ukraine can hold on until Russia cant no more its still the job of getting lost territory back. This shit show will go on for years.

Abandoning Severodonetsk make sense, over the weeks the siege has lasted, the city is erased off the map.
Why fight over pebbles? Another pyrrhic victory for Russia, cost them so much resources to take a ruin.

On the west side of Severodonetsk is a big river, and its sister city on top of a 150m high hill.
How they going to Lysychansk without catastrophic losses, will be a puzzle.
This city they will not give up, even in ruins it will still be a very strong defensive position.

Longer range artillery, with a height advantage will have free reign over Russian position, especially as they will try to cross the river (they destroyed all the bridges for).

While I like to believe this is true, if its so compelling strategically why didnt they pull back much sooner and stem those 200/day losses?

[Lief Siddhe]

Because it's easy to be the general after the battle.

Also, Zelensky and the UKR leadership is on walking a very narrow edge - they simply cannot allow a city to fall without a fight. The, ahem, more radical elements in Ukraine could look upon it very unfavourably.

In other news, Perun's got another episode. This one's gonna be a doozey.

[Fara]

Ukraine pulling back once again from a key city. Also did see another note where they again confirm the lose 200 people a day.
Ukraine also reporting Russia firing about 50-60k shells per day which is 10x to what Ukraine do/can do, not enough ammo ready or being produced nor enough equipment to match the fire power.
So in regards to earlier discussions, Russia can sustain this a lot longer than Ukraine, including man power, regardless of (current level) of western material being sent.

And once/when/IF Ukraine can hold on until Russia cant no more its still the job of getting lost territory back. This shit show will go on for years.

Abandoning Severodonetsk make sense, over the weeks the siege has lasted, the city is erased off the map.
Why fight over pebbles? Another pyrrhic victory for Russia, cost them so much resources to take a ruin.

On the west side of Severodonetsk is a big river, and its sister city on top of a 150m high hill.
How they going to Lysychansk without catastrophic losses, will be a puzzle.
This city they will not give up, even in ruins it will still be a very strong defensive position.

Longer range artillery, with a height advantage will have free reign over Russian position, especially as they will try to cross the river (they destroyed all the bridges for).

While I like to believe this is true, if its so compelling strategically why didnt they pull back much sooner and stem those 200/day losses?

Perhaps to degrade the offensive capable units of the russian army in a city fight where they think they can trade more favorable than on open ground where the artillery advantage plays a bigger role. Granted it's been the best units of the Ukrainian army that were defending the donbas initially, my guess is they reinforced the city and surroundings with TDF/volunteers after it became clear that the donbas would become the new focal point some weeks ago.

[Joe Appleby]

Battles in cities are meatgrinders for both sides. Stalingrad caused some 700k Axis casualties (killed, wounded, captured), a million for the Soviets. Yet it broke the Axis' back, not the Soviets'.

[Lowa [NSN]]

And another thing, what are the chances of Ukraine going forward to reclaim lost territory without air superiority? Either through actual airforce or enough AA to make it impossible for RUS to fly?
Not saying it cant be done but it would be a horrifying grind without it and that in itself is almost a show stopper. That said, it seems there is a lot less video of RUS air force being posted these days (not sure thats an indication or not?).

[Candy Crush]

Battles in cities are meatgrinders for both sides. Stalingrad caused some 700k Axis casualties (killed, wounded, captured), a million for the Soviets. Yet it broke the Axis' back, not the Soviets'.

Soviets were backed by Lend-Lease then, now Lend-Lease backs Ukraine.
The current Russian strategy of throwing massive, unsustainable, quantities of war stocks and human lives at the Ukrainians until they give-up is BRILLIANT. Even though they have a lot of apartment buildings to go, the brilliant strategist Putin is determined to knock every one of them down. Watching the genius at work…

[VARRAKK]

Ukraine pulling back once again from a key city. Also did see another note where they again confirm the lose 200 people a day.
Ukraine also reporting Russia firing about 50-60k shells per day which is 10x to what Ukraine do/can do, not enough ammo ready or being produced nor enough equipment to match the fire power.
So in regards to earlier discussions, Russia can sustain this a lot longer than Ukraine, including man power, regardless of (current level) of western material being sent.

And once/when/IF Ukraine can hold on until Russia cant no more its still the job of getting lost territory back. This shit show will go on for years.

Abandoning Severodonetsk make sense, over the weeks the siege has lasted, the city is erased off the map.
Why fight over pebbles? Another pyrrhic victory for Russia, cost them so much resources to take a ruin.

On the west side of Severodonetsk is a big river, and its sister city on top of a 150m high hill.
How they going to Lysychansk without catastrophic losses, will be a puzzle.
This city they will not give up, even in ruins it will still be a very strong defensive position.

Longer range artillery, with a height advantage will have free reign over Russian position, especially as they will try to cross the river (they destroyed all the bridges for).

While I like to believe this is true, if its so compelling strategically why didnt they pull back much sooner and stem those 200/day losses?

I'm guessing to harden the defences of Lysychansk.

Now of course, they can go south and come around it.

[Nordstern]

That said, it seems there is a lot less video of RUS air force being posted these days (not sure thats an indication or not?).

Pilots are flat-out refusing to fly over Ukrainian territory. They fly and launch missiles from Russian airspace or the Black Sea.

[Maximillian]

Logistics is still the king of the battlefield and once the bridges were destroyed and Ukraine had to supply via inflatable boat holding Severodonetsk no longer made sense. Now to advance the Russians will have to supply across the river without bridges and we saw what happened last time they attempted pontoon bridges.

Ukraine needs to slow the Russians to stop Russia taking the whole of the Donbas as that might encourage some of Ukraine's backers to pullout to focus on domestic problems. If the leaders of the EU and the US were smart they'd do the opposite - pouring huge amounts of aid into Ukraine now - because the issues caused by the war like energy and food security will continue until the war ends and then for years beyond that.

It is also the best thing for Russia. Being decisively defeated on the battlefield would weaken and maybe bring down Putin. Then perhaps the Russian population can get over their desire for dwarf hardmen to rule them like a violent step-daddy and instead give democracy another try. Putin gaining anything from the war will not only cement totalitarianism in Russia but will encourage the Chinese to have ago.

When your enemy is banking on you being morally weak you'd better not be morally weak.

[Cosmin]

perhaps the Russian population can get over their desire for dwarf hardmen to rule them like a violent step-daddy and instead give democracy another try. Putin gaining anything from the war will not only cement totalitarianism in Russia but will encourage the Chinese to have ago.

1. So what colour would you like your dragon to be?
2. Pretty much, yep. And will bring us closer to total annihilation because Taiwan is going to be a complete shit show. All invaders' and potential invaders' eyes are on the west atm to see how much liberties they can take in the future, depending on how horribly this is curbstomped now we may or may not have a future

[Zeekar]

Battles in cities are meatgrinders for both sides. Stalingrad caused some 700k Axis casualties (killed, wounded, captured), a million for the Soviets. Yet it broke the Axis' back, not the Soviets'.

Relative sizes of population made that possible. USSR was more than twice the size of Germany back then. UKR is 1/3 the size of Russia.

[Candy Crush]

Obese Russian general, 67, called up to fight in Ukraine as Putin 'scrapes the barrel'

https://nypost.com/2022/06/26/obese-...kraine-report/

[rufuske]

Obese Russian general, 67, called up to fight in Ukraine as Putin 'scrapes the barrel'

https://nypost.com/2022/06/26/obese-...kraine-report/

Reddit comments for it were gold. Along the lines of "It's official, they're trying to starve Ukraine with this weapon of mass destruction" etc, it went on for hours.

[Cosmin]

Oh god, found the Reddit thread, I'm dying here.

Link for the curious.