Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[Malcanis]

I do get the strong impression that if US voters make another Bad Decision next year and whatever fascist jesusland nutbar gets elected decides that homophobia is more important than petty considerations like geopolitical imperatives, Poland will pre-empt the issue of how much to support Ukraine by openly and directly joining the war in support of Ukraine.

[Candy Crush]

I've been seeing a lot of memes where Poland is chomping at the bit to fight Russia. Is this just a running joke or is there some truth to this?

Well they are buying everything that si for sale with a remote military application atm (486 Himars, 1000 tanks, 3-4000 IFV, artillery, planes etc etc).

The next big war will be between China and Poland for Siberia...

[Candy Crush]

I do get the strong impression that if US voters make another Bad Decision next year and whatever fascist jesusland nutbar gets elected decides that homophobia is more important than petty considerations like geopolitical imperatives, Poland will pre-empt the issue of how much to support Ukraine by openly and directly joining the war in support of Ukraine.

Russia really is a Republicans wet dream.

[Nordstern]

I do get the strong impression that if US voters make another Bad Decision next year and whatever fascist jesusland nutbar gets elected decides that homophobia is more important than petty considerations like geopolitical imperatives, Poland will pre-empt the issue of how much to support Ukraine by openly and directly joining the war in support of Ukraine.

Russia really is a Republicans wet dream.

This is hardly surprising considering:

1) Sanctions have hit Russia hard, depriving their access to technology
2) The owner of Baikal Electronics, a fabless semiconductor company, went bankrupt after losing access to TSMC and UMC.
3) Russia's most advanced tech node is 65nm, which can't compete with imports. As an aside, I have touched the photolithography tool they most likely depend on for that 65nm process, and they had trouble scraping the money together to buy it.

[Candy Crush]

Ukraine goes full Mossad

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/a...ntl/index.html

[Lowa [NSN]]

Ukraine goes full Mossad

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/a...ntl/index.html

I find this very speculative and click-baity.

[Caldrion Dosto]

Ukraine goes full Mossad

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/a...ntl/index.html

I find this very speculative and click-baity.

Indeed, never ever since man invented technology have some one copied another's successful application of new technology in war....

[Malcanis]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-...urovikin-line/

[Lief Siddhe]

Ukraine goes full Mossad

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/a...ntl/index.html

I find this very speculative and click-baity.

From Candy Crush? Why, I never

[VARRAKK]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...port-in-russia

[Dee Jiensai]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...port-in-russia

That is glorious. And not only because it captures a helpful customer service interaction.

[Nordstern]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...port-in-russia

Saw that at dinner tonight, got a laugh from my dad and I.

[Malcanis]

The Russian government has announced that there will only be a "normal" draft this year, ca. 130,000 or so. I am pretty confident that they will on the quiet, send rather more notices than that. I think that quietly increasing the goal of that "130,000" draft by 25% is a conservative minimum estimate, and I think that 50% is more likely. Simply because by the time they all actually get drafted, inducted and transported over the next year, Russian losses will likely be about that many.

Ukraine claim to be killing about 400-500 a day; zoom out some and that's a rate of 12,000-15,000 per month, or 145,000-180,000 per year.

Now Ukraine might be and very probably are... rounding that number up some, but they're also not including casualties from disease, exposure, desertion, murder, injury, disciplinary action, training*, and just the general casualties that happen when not very well educated or motivated or trained or led people (who also like alcohol a very lot) are let loose around dangerous equipment. So I'm going to assume that the total "wastage" is in fact actually currently in that 12-15k/month zone.

So the Russians need to be recruiting at least that many just to not be doing any worse than they are now in regards to raw manpower. And that's before taking in to account the steady loss of the remaining cadre of experienced personnel and the even more relentless loss of materiel.

I rather expect that as soon as Putin's election party is over, there will be another "limited mobilisation".

*Last winter we saw a claim that up to 8% of some groups of mobiks were casualties one way or another before they even made it to the front.

[Candy Crush]

Both sides inflate number of losses of the other side.
Casualty rates were studied and predicted and in normal circumstances, you can expect 10-15 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in defence and 35-50 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in offence. So Ukraine claims of 400-500 dead Russians per day is pure fantasy.

[Candy Crush]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...port-in-russia

That is glorious. And not only because it captures a helpful customer service interaction.

Plot twist: The customer support is in India.

[Nordstern]

Both sides inflate number of losses of the other side.
Casualty rates were studied and predicted and in normal circumstances, you can expect 10-15 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in defence and 35-50 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in offence. So Ukraine claims of 400-500 dead Russians per day is pure fantasy.

But if Russia has deployed 100k soldiers, then is it unreasonable?

[Candy Crush]

Both sides inflate number of losses of the other side.
Casualty rates were studied and predicted and in normal circumstances, you can expect 10-15 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in defence and 35-50 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in offence. So Ukraine claims of 400-500 dead Russians per day is pure fantasy.

But if Russia has deployed 100k soldiers, then is it unreasonable?

I doubt that they can feed and equip 100k soldiers on the front line. Logistic is a big problem, they lack simple equipment like forklifts, almost everything they move is based on arms and backs.

[Candy Crush]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...port-in-russia

Saw that at dinner tonight, got a laugh from my dad and I.

[El Capitano]

I doubt that they can feed and equip 100k soldiers on the front line.

That's not a concern to Putin.

[Malcanis]

Both sides inflate number of losses of the other side.
Casualty rates were studied and predicted and in normal circumstances, you can expect 10-15 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in defence and 35-50 dead from 1000 soldiers per day in offence. So Ukraine claims of 400-500 dead Russians per day is pure fantasy.

"In normal circumstances" presumably meaning that the defenders give the smallest of shits about their own men, and an increasingly isolated dictator isn't constantly interfering in operational decisions and issuing "No Step Back" orders?