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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #21261
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.
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  2. #21262

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    Drone warfare evolution



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  3. #21263
    Donor Spaztick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeshi Nuwen View Post
    Regarding retaking Crimea & ordering some sort of nuclear strike, the two interesting questions probably are "would Russia consider Ukraine retaking Crimea to be a existential threat", and "does anybody on the Russian side actually give a shit about rules lawyering at that point anymore".
    I agree that Putin appears he doesn't give a shit about rules anymore, well kind of, otherwise he would have called this officially a war and everything that comes with that already. He has to fear that an all out official war will result in a domestic revolution. On the other hand he has to consider the reaction of the West and somewhat China if he uses a tactical nuke so he is kind of restricted aka bind to rules.

    You can discuss the reaction of the West in case of a tactical nuke but if you think it through even if you start with a low response, after escalation and escalation, it will end in a nuclear war at least on a tactical level in Europe. I really hope we won't see that end of the rope.
    We'll see, I think he's doing this to make his mark in the history books. If it requires him to push the button he might do it if it means he'll be remembered infamously.

  4. #21264
    מלך יהודים Zeekar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.
    It will end badly but russia will not be occupied you retard.


    

  5. #21265
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeekar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.
    It will end badly but russia will not be occupied you retard.
    Use of nukes would result in Russia's borders being sealed from the outside and literally everyone refusing to do business. I doubt the regime would last over 5 years.

    It's a big country so internal balcanisation if the government fails isn't too far fetched.
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  6. #21266

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    I dont know what would happen, but i do know that China has a security agreement with Ukraine in the case of (a) tactial nuke(s) being deployed. So yeah, Russia would lose one of it's only two remaining trading partners of any size, and India might follow suite.

  7. #21267
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    I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  8. #21268

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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.
    That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?

  9. #21269
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spartan Dax View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.
    That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?
    I could speculate any number of possibilities. Conventional responses are possible. Sanctions and isolation would be a certainty. A lot would depend on what form the event took a low kiloton device used away from a city or even out in the Black Sea is one thing; a megaton device that erases Kyiv and a million Ukrainians is another.

    In any case, we should remember that regardless of rhetoric, taking even a small part of Ukraine is ultimately not necessary for Russia's national survival. Losing an adventurist war is embarrassing and expensive but not necessarily an immediate existential threat to the country or the state or even Putin - life could go on. On the other hand, provoking a nuclear response is the end of all those things.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  10. #21270
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spartan Dax View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.
    That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?
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  11. #21271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spartan Dax View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.
    That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?
    Strikes on Russia would probably result in a nuclear war.
    Most likely they become Big North Korea.
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  12. #21272

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    plot twist: Russia nuked itself and blame NATO

    edit: Russia under Czar Putin



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    Last edited by Candy Crush; May 14 2022 at 10:12:00 PM.

  13. #21273

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spaztick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeshi Nuwen View Post
    Regarding retaking Crimea & ordering some sort of nuclear strike, the two interesting questions probably are "would Russia consider Ukraine retaking Crimea to be a existential threat", and "does anybody on the Russian side actually give a shit about rules lawyering at that point anymore".
    I agree that Putin appears he doesn't give a shit about rules anymore, well kind of, otherwise he would have called this officially a war and everything that comes with that already. He has to fear that an all out official war will result in a domestic revolution. On the other hand he has to consider the reaction of the West and somewhat China if he uses a tactical nuke so he is kind of restricted aka bind to rules.

    You can discuss the reaction of the West in case of a tactical nuke but if you think it through even if you start with a low response, after escalation and escalation, it will end in a nuclear war at least on a tactical level in Europe. I really hope we won't see that end of the rope.
    We'll see, I think he's doing this to make his mark in the history books. If it requires him to push the button he might do it if it means he'll be remembered infamously.
    Putin is still fighting the cold war, his intention is to return Russia to where it was 50 years ago on the world stage. This is why he puts so much effort into influencing the west to fracture them apart. Any nuclear use would instantly bring together the rest of the world against Russia and his goals will fail. Anything is possible I don't see nuke use as likely because it will end far worse for Russia.

  14. #21274
    Super Chillerator Global Moderator teds :D's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.
    lol ok, how?

  15. #21275
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    All that horse cum is rotting the lads brain

  16. #21276
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Spartan Dax View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.
    That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?
    I could speculate any number of possibilities. Conventional responses are possible. Sanctions and isolation would be a certainty. A lot would depend on what form the event took a low kiloton device used away from a city or even out in the Black Sea is one thing; a megaton device that erases Kyiv and a million Ukrainians is another.

    In any case, we should remember that regardless of rhetoric, taking even a small part of Ukraine is ultimately not necessary for Russia's national survival. Losing an adventurist war is embarrassing and expensive but not necessarily an immediate existential threat to the country or the state or even Putin - life could go on. On the other hand, provoking a nuclear response is the end of all those things.
    Although i think the possibility for any sort of nuke is still low, there is one possible trigger point and that is Crimea. Putin regards Crimea as Russian territory and of course Crimea is important for the Russian navy to rule the Black Sea aka Sewastopol.
    I'm hesitating to go through the possibilities of a tactical nuke and the NATO/US response but for the sake of my mind.

    Premise:
    Lets look at the possible US response and leave China and the rest of Nato out of it for now. I don't doubt that the US has plans ready for most scenarios. Of course there are lots of other differentiated responses possible i didn't thought of.

    - A kiloton device is used over non inhabitant land/sea as a warning.
    Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc
    Unlikely response -> US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.

    - A kiloton device is used over Ukraine troops and killed soldiers
    Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc
    Unlikely response -> US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.

    - A kiloton device is used over a smaller city killing lots of civilians
    This could be the threshold for the US to get directly involved but i doubt it
    Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc
    Unlikely response -> US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.

    - A megaton device is used over Kyiv or any other bigger city like Odessa etc.
    Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc. US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.
    very unlikely response -> US will counter with a nuke of it's own



    The last scenario is were the escalation chain really starts, what happens if Russia nukes US soldiers on Ukraine ground to stop the inevitable.

    Maybe i'm totally wrong and the US/Nato won't respond to any kind of nuke with any sort of involvement but that opens another can of worms. The world will see that MAD don't work and Russia will have won the war as Ukraine has to surrender.


    This artcile fits in what i'm thinking:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/o...tin-biden.html
    Last edited by Jori McKie; May 15 2022 at 06:02:18 AM.
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  17. #21277
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    I think you're leaving out other possible responses such as:

    - Broad spectrum information warfare is applied to Russia, of the Stuxnet variety and any other such fuckery that has been dreamed up since
    - Mass scale doxxing of Russian intelligence operatives working abroad, plus possibly the names of those they've been dealing with
    - A large number of countries either scale back to a consul level or end diplomatic relations with Russia altogether.
    - Mass scale seizure of all Russian assets and accounts
    - Mysterious accidents happen to Russian assets eg: naval vessels outside Russian territorial waters, aircraft outside their airspace, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  18. #21278
    Jori McKie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    I think you're leaving out other possible responses such as:

    - Broad spectrum information warfare is applied to Russia, of the Stuxnet variety and any other such fuckery that has been dreamed up since
    - Mass scale doxxing of Russian intelligence operatives working abroad, plus possibly the names of those they've been dealing with
    - A large number of countries either scale back to a consul level or end diplomatic relations with Russia altogether.
    - Mass scale seizure of all Russian assets and accounts
    - Mysterious accidents happen to Russian assets eg: naval vessels outside Russian territorial waters, aircraft outside their airspace, etc.
    Yep, all possible. Thing is when does the escalation chain starts and where does it ends. Without a proper response from US/Nato after Putin used a tactical nuke even only as a warning, Putin may think well that was underwhelming, lets nuke actual Ukraine troops and see what happens then.
    It's a dilemma the response has to be serious but don't escalate?

    On a more light note, this made me laugh and that was needed:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...comedy/629850/
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

  19. #21279

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    If Russia went with the tactical nuke option, the US could respond with a targeted non-nuclear strike of equivalent power. It wouldn't be that hard for them to do.

  20. #21280
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    It makes you wonder the balance of value that existed between the soviet states. Just how important from an academic, technological, productive standpoint were the Russians compared to the east germans, ukrainians, georgians, armenians etc? Or has there really been such an immense brain drain within Russia over the past few decades?
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

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