
Originally Posted by
rufuske
Already debunked. Although a bit of a pity, from a cynical point of view, because sending moscow and petersburg hipsters with the kind of logistic and supplies russia can provide in Ukraine is the fastest way to get rid of Putin. With their own hands.
In regards to officially announcing war and general mobilization. This and a couple of other things were talked about in swedish pod. And they experts in there came to the same conclusion, its very unlikely Putin would do it as it has a great chance of turning the people against him.
And that is apparently his greatest fear, people rising up. His experience at the end of the cold war and the falling of the wall put great scars in his soul apparently. It got worse with the Arab spring revolts as he saw what happened to other dictators and strong men, if not outright ousted/killed the countries fell into absolute chaos and civil war. And he likes order and control above everything else.
Other interesting points made was for (the real) reasons/theories of the war
1. Natural resources. Ukraine going more west and possibly having more resources than Russia for O&G could mean they can replace Rus as supplier and therefor influencer on Europe. And ofc the general strategic idea of controlling more O&G, just like the US have done. This one is sort of obvious.
2. Natural resources, in the truest form; Ukraine is one of only 4 areas in the world with the absolute best farming grounds and its extremely productive and not, currently, seeing any real effect of soil degradation. Controlling food supply not only for Rus but for a big chunk of the world is quite possibly more valuable than O&G.
Putler having control of
both of those including the ports would be very, very bad.
But...this of course was based on that he wins which thankfully does not seem likely at the moment.
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