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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #21041

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    The Ghost is nice propaganda, this is the second time someone has claimed an identity and him being killed, UA sources are still saying that there is no ghost and there certainly isn't a pilot with the claimed 40 kills. In all likelyhood the UA airforce might not even have 40 confirmed kills to it's name yet total.
    It is just normal war propaganda in 2022. Doesn't not matter if its true. People who want to will gobble it up. And that is the audience. Nothing new at all. Bit more effective in 2022 tho. Nobody cares about retracting a tiktok etc.
    The propaganda doesn't without some real facts. The reality is RUAF doesn't achieve air superiority (Ukrainians still supply Azovsteel with helos over night) and even worst lost SU-34, they try so hard to marked that plane for export.

    The Ghost of Kyiv” is a meme, a collective image of all Ukrainian fighter pilots.
    Last edited by Candy Crush; May 1 2022 at 10:45:22 AM.

  2. #21042
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    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    The Ghost is nice propaganda, this is the second time someone has claimed an identity and him being killed, UA sources are still saying that there is no ghost and there certainly isn't a pilot with the claimed 40 kills. In all likelyhood the UA airforce might not even have 40 confirmed kills to it's name yet total.
    It is just normal war propaganda in 2022. Doesn't not matter if its true. People who want to will gobble it up. And that is the audience. Nothing new at all. Bit more effective in 2022 tho. Nobody cares about retracting a tiktok etc.
    The propaganda doesn't without some real facts. The reality is RUAF doesn't achieve air superiority (Ukrainians still supply Azovsteel with helos over night) and even worst lost SU-34, they try so hard to marked that plane for export.

    The Ghost of Kyiv” is a meme, a collective image of all Ukrainian fighter pilots.
    9 SU-34 has been confirmed lost.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  3. #21043

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    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by depili View Post
    The Ghost is nice propaganda, this is the second time someone has claimed an identity and him being killed, UA sources are still saying that there is no ghost and there certainly isn't a pilot with the claimed 40 kills. In all likelyhood the UA airforce might not even have 40 confirmed kills to it's name yet total.
    It is just normal war propaganda in 2022. Doesn't not matter if its true. People who want to will gobble it up. And that is the audience. Nothing new at all. Bit more effective in 2022 tho. Nobody cares about retracting a tiktok etc.
    The propaganda doesn't without some real facts. The reality is RUAF doesn't achieve air superiority (Ukrainians still supply Azovsteel with helos over night) and even worst lost SU-34, they try so hard to marked that plane for export.

    The Ghost of Kyiv” is a meme, a collective image of all Ukrainian fighter pilots.
    Propaganda is a quick consumer item in 2022. What do you mean by 'some real facts' ? That is not propaganda. It is ment for the fanatics or to turn people into fanatics.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  4. #21044
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    Six reasons why Ukraine is winning the war against Russia

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/six-...gainst-russia/
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  5. #21045
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    The chief of staff of the Russian Federation, Gerasimov, was wounded near Izyum.

    Army General Gerasimov arrived near Izyum to personally command the advance of Russian troops on Slaviansk. According to the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko, a powerful explosion took place in the headquarters of the 2nd Army of the RF Armed Forces. Gerasimov was there at the time.

    "An hour ago we received confirmation of yesterday's explosion in Izium (eastern Ukraine) near the headquarters of the Russian Army. Right where the headquarters of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Gerasimov, who came personally to lead the attack on Slaviansk, is located. "Geraschenko wrote
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  6. #21046

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Propaganda is a quick consumer item in 2022. What do you mean by 'some real facts' ? That is not propaganda. It is ment for the fanatics or to turn people into fanatics.
    It's 2022, everybody can record and report things outside state controlled mass media, people are more connected, look at Russian state TVs and then what people are talking in street:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiBdNpxFrc4

  7. #21047

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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Six reasons why Ukraine is winning the war against Russia

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/six-...gainst-russia/
    One reason why it wont: attrition. Russia has disabled their refineries, and Ukraine has been coasting on fuel reserves until now. They are about to run out. In addition, they have done well in contesting air superiority, but the Ukrainian air force is reaching it's limit due to fatigue and irreplaceable losses (no western country is willing to supply new jets or for that matter, pilots).

    Which means that getting all the promised heavy equipment to the front will be a bitch. Which in turn means that the east including the whole Black Sea coast will be gone sooner or later. Ukraine will be a landlocked country cut in half, with about 1/3rd of their total area containing 2/3rds of their heavy industry becoming a russian occupation zone / puppet state.

    I wish to be proven wrong, but that is what it looks like to me right now.

  8. #21048

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    Quote Originally Posted by Candy Crush View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Propaganda is a quick consumer item in 2022. What do you mean by 'some real facts' ? That is not propaganda. It is ment for the fanatics or to turn people into fanatics.
    It's 2022, everybody can record and report things outside state controlled mass media, people are more connected, look at Russian state TVs and then what people are talking in street:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiBdNpxFrc4
    You are proving my point of propaganda.


    Not sure what you are trying to say?
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  9. #21049
    Super Moderator DonorGlobal Moderator whispous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nordstern View Post
    Awful thread title change.



    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    locking again cos you're all getting weird and being autists about tyres

  10. #21050
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilalaunebör View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Six reasons why Ukraine is winning the war against Russia

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/six-...gainst-russia/
    One reason why it wont: attrition. Russia has disabled their refineries, and Ukraine has been coasting on fuel reserves until now. They are about to run out. In addition, they have done well in contesting air superiority, but the Ukrainian air force is reaching it's limit due to fatigue and irreplaceable losses (no western country is willing to supply new jets or for that matter, pilots).

    Which means that getting all the promised heavy equipment to the front will be a bitch. Which in turn means that the east including the whole Black Sea coast will be gone sooner or later. Ukraine will be a landlocked country cut in half, with about 1/3rd of their total area containing 2/3rds of their heavy industry becoming a russian occupation zone / puppet state.

    I wish to be proven wrong, but that is what it looks like to me right now.
    Planes are only required to obtain air superiority, the AA they are getting is blocking Russian from obtaining it.
    And fuel can easily be transported into Ukraine, plenty of pipelines and railroads.

    Pipeline map for Europe, it is more expansive than what most people believe.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  11. #21051
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilalaunebör View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Six reasons why Ukraine is winning the war against Russia

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/six-...gainst-russia/
    One reason why it wont: attrition. Russia has disabled their refineries, and Ukraine has been coasting on fuel reserves until now. They are about to run out. In addition, they have done well in contesting air superiority, but the Ukrainian air force is reaching it's limit due to fatigue and irreplaceable losses (no western country is willing to supply new jets or for that matter, pilots).

    Which means that getting all the promised heavy equipment to the front will be a bitch. Which in turn means that the east including the whole Black Sea coast will be gone sooner or later. Ukraine will be a landlocked country cut in half, with about 1/3rd of their total area containing 2/3rds of their heavy industry becoming a russian occupation zone / puppet state.

    I wish to be proven wrong, but that is what it looks like to me right now.
    Supplying Ukraine with fuel is not going to be that difficult for the NATO logistics structure.

    Attrition is far more the enemy of the Russian forces. The Ukrainians are being supplied with new equipment as fast as they can absorb it into their operational structure. The Russians aren't replacing anything except poorly trained and demoralised conscripts; their equipment is overwhelmingly soviet-era legacy hardware that they haven't maintained, don't know how to use efficiently and are largely unable to repair or replace

    The Ukrainians are very strongly motivated to fight because it has been made absolutely clear that Russia's aim is the extinction of their nation, with most Ukrainians to be killed, enslaved (lets not kid ourselves about what's happening to the million 'rescued' Ukrainians) or if they're lucky, able to escape as penniless refugees. They have nothing to lose. And NATO has every motivation to give the Ukrainians more murderkill toys for as long as they're willing to keep using them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  12. #21052

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    Best that i can find is that there is ONE product pipeline running through Ukraine, the rest are crude i.e. useless without refineries, or natural gas.

    The Druzhba pipeline is *supplied by Rosneft*, and Ukraine has been importing diesel from Russia via this pipeline in order to meet its fuel needs. You decide yourself if that is sustainable, or if pipelines can be retooled to reverse direction.

    e: regarding NATO logistics, sure thats great and all, but NATO logistics only work up to the border. If Russia can take out critical rail links, things r fuk.

  13. #21053
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    Yeah you're right I bet no one has thought about logistics. Welp, good run Ukraine. Pity no one thought about fuel supply.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  14. #21054
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilalaunebör View Post
    Best that i can find is that there is ONE product pipeline running through Ukraine, the rest are crude i.e. useless without refineries, or natural gas.

    The Druzhba pipeline is *supplied by Rosneft*, and Ukraine has been importing diesel from Russia via this pipeline in order to meet its fuel needs. You decide yourself if that is sustainable, or if pipelines can be retooled to reverse direction.

    e: regarding NATO logistics, sure thats great and all, but NATO logistics only work up to the border. If Russia can take out critical rail links, things r fuk.
    In a war emergency, it is no problems to pig the crude line (clean) and start pushing diesel through it.
    Military vehicles, aren't too picky about Diesel quality as modern cars. After a couple of days, pipe will be clean for any light oil based products.

    The Druzhba pipeline is *supplied by Rosneft*, and Ukraine has been importing diesel from Russia via this pipeline in order to meet its fuel needs. You decide yourself if that is sustainable, or if pipelines can be retooled to reverse direction.
    Reversing flow on a pipe is zero effort, all pumps can push and pull.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  15. #21055
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  16. #21056
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    A big change will come when the Ukrainians deploy the NATO artillery systems they are currently being trained on. Couple long range mobile artillery with advanced counterbattery radar and suddenly the Russian ability to shell at will gets curtailed unless they want to take massive losses.

    The simple fact is the Russians do not have the density of forces required to both hold the territory they currently occupy and to concentrate enough forces to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses at points of their choosing. Also the drones are making large columns like the ones seen outside Kviv little more than shooting galleries so the Russians can't move large numbers of troops and equipment from point to point without taking heavy losses.

    Basically the Russians have bitten off more Ukrainian territory than they can hold. The only solution would be to pull out all the forces from the South and send them to the Donbas but even then that would allow Ukrainian forces to redeploy to face them using internal lines. So instead the Russians use missiles and artillery to do damage in the hope that Ukraine gives in and allows the Russians somekind of "victory".

    There is talk that Putin may be forced to declare an actual war as explaining the deaths of maybe 10,000 plus Russian conscripts who by law cannot be deployed outside of war will be hard to explain away.

    My real fear is that NATO and others will view Ukraine as a good chance to bleed the Russians militarily and economicly and will give Ukraine enough weapons to defend but not enough to drive the Russians out of all of their territory.

  17. #21057
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    Even the leaked Russian figures put the number of casualties at over 20,000, and that was a while ago I think. I suspect it's racing to 25k if it hasn't hit that figure already.

    But yes, the Russians have far too few forces to hold what they've taken vs a force which is numerically equal in manpower and has modern equipment and doctrine. Their only advantage - yes, still a pretty damb big advantage - is the big pile of legacy soviet-era equipment, and that advantage being abraded away at a rate that must be causing near-panic in the general staff. If Poland has actually given Ukraine 200 actually operable T-72s, then that's Kind Of A Problem(tm) for the Russians.

    If Russia try to keep holding it all they're going to risk some of the most extended units being cut off, then being faced with the inevitable dilemma of another huge humiliation by deciding to abandon them, or take more huge losses by rushing relief forces into an inevitable ambush situation and/or a secondary attack on the areas now even less strongly held because they took forces away for that relief effort. I doubt Putin is going to let them just withdraw to prevent this.

    EDIT: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...-out-in-russia

    Seems like the Ukrainians are starting to get serious now. Russia relies almost completely on their rail network to move units around. Mobilisation doesn't do you nearly as much good if those conscripts have to walk to the front.
    Last edited by Malcanis; May 2 2022 at 09:11:10 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  18. #21058

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    Speaking about T72s, Slovenia decides to sent M84s in Ukraine in exchange for some Marders and Fuchs. M84 is superior to the classic version of the T 72 Ural (improved composite armor and a 1000-hp engine) and we'll see how performs. This war is an opportunity for many countries to get rid of Soviet era armament, especially ammunition so hard to dispose off.

  19. #21059
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    It is the natural progression of war.
    Once they managed to halt the second offence they could start counter attacking.

    We are seeing the classic cut the head off the snake.
    Going after Command and supply chain, the rest of the russian army will grind to a halt.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  20. #21060
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lilalaunebör View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Six reasons why Ukraine is winning the war against Russia

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/six-...gainst-russia/
    One reason why it wont: attrition.
    Reports are that Russia lost ground two days in a row, they just had another batch of officers killed, things are not going well for the Russians, I don't know if they can keep this up two more months.


    I wish to be proven wrong, but that is what it looks like to me right now.
    I imagine you will be proven wrong.
    "Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered, those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid. Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win." - Zhuge Liang


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