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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #20021
    Lucence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    More unintended consequences Putin didn't thought of:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inst-strongmen

    I don't know the dates for the election in France and Hungary but they are soonish. Even if only the people on the fence voting for anti-democratic politicians are now turning away it will be huge and hopefully a long term effect.
    The French presidential election is in April (10 and 24 for both rounds). Macron is likely to be reelected without campaigning, but overall war in Ukraine has had little to no effect on polling. As in most countries, foreign policy is a non factor. While Macron is currently leading the polls, the 2nd (Marine le Pen), 3rd (Eric Zemmour) and 4th candidates (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) are all for withdrawing from NATO. Le Pen is openly taking Russian money, her supporters either don't care or believe France should align with Russia, and she's going up in polls even now. That's at least 40% of voters who would rather trust Russia than the US, and closer to 45-50% if you count smaller candidates who are also in favor of withdrawing from NATO. Ukraine is just very very low on voters agenda compared to getting rid of muslims or toppling capitalism.

  2. #20022
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucence View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    More unintended consequences Putin didn't thought of:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inst-strongmen

    I don't know the dates for the election in France and Hungary but they are soonish. Even if only the people on the fence voting for anti-democratic politicians are now turning away it will be huge and hopefully a long term effect.
    The French presidential election is in April (10 and 24 for both rounds). Macron is likely to be reelected without campaigning, but overall war in Ukraine has had little to no effect on polling. As in most countries, foreign policy is a non factor. While Macron is currently leading the polls, the 2nd (Marine le Pen), 3rd (Eric Zemmour) and 4th candidates (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) are all for withdrawing from NATO. Le Pen is openly taking Russian money, her supporters either don't care or believe France should align with Russia, and she's going up in polls even now. That's at least 40% of voters who would rather trust Russia than the US, and closer to 45-50% if you count smaller candidates who are also in favor of withdrawing from NATO. Ukraine is just very very low on voters agenda compared to getting rid of muslims or toppling capitalism.
    When your average authoritarian pinhead sees what Putin is doing they are not horrified, they are jealous. Murder, Ethnic Cleansing and arbitary arrest and violence against opponents is what they dream of at night.

  3. #20023
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maximillian View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lucence View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    More unintended consequences Putin didn't thought of:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inst-strongmen

    I don't know the dates for the election in France and Hungary but they are soonish. Even if only the people on the fence voting for anti-democratic politicians are now turning away it will be huge and hopefully a long term effect.
    The French presidential election is in April (10 and 24 for both rounds). Macron is likely to be reelected without campaigning, but overall war in Ukraine has had little to no effect on polling. As in most countries, foreign policy is a non factor. While Macron is currently leading the polls, the 2nd (Marine le Pen), 3rd (Eric Zemmour) and 4th candidates (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) are all for withdrawing from NATO. Le Pen is openly taking Russian money, her supporters either don't care or believe France should align with Russia, and she's going up in polls even now. That's at least 40% of voters who would rather trust Russia than the US, and closer to 45-50% if you count smaller candidates who are also in favor of withdrawing from NATO. Ukraine is just very very low on voters agenda compared to getting rid of muslims or toppling capitalism.
    When your average authoritarian pinhead sees what Putin is doing they are not horrified, they are jealous. Murder, Ethnic Cleansing and arbitary arrest and violence against opponents is what they dream of at night.
    Let's see how well they last without russian funding and with people more weary of russian propaganda.

  4. #20024
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    More unintended consequences Putin didn't thought of:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inst-strongmen

    I don't know the dates for the election in France and Hungary but they are soonish. Even if only the people on the fence voting for anti-democratic politicians are now turning away it will be huge and hopefully a long term effect.
    Hungarian elections are on 3rd April.

    Opposition coalition is demanding a more active role (selling / donating guns, ammunitions, protective gear) in the war.

    Orban is shit scared of Putin, if you remember, he met him end of Jan this year. Long table meme, anyone?

    I think he already realized at that time Putin went bat shit crazy and he knows Hungarian military is jack shit.

    Couple of highlights from Hungary:
    - Hungarian government supports all EU sanctions. Although there were a couple news of the opposite, these were proved to be false.
    - fully opened corridor for Ukrainian refugees, no limit, weapons are confiscated at the border
    - general move from the population and government to support the refugees as we can, using public transports and the train system in Hungary is made free for the refugees
    - Hungary does not need more NATO troops (if shit hits the fan, this is going to bite Hungary extremely hard)
    - Hungary does not allow weapon donations (to Ukraine) shipped through the country
    - Hungary banned all grain export

    I'm not that proud to be a Hungarian these days.

  5. #20025
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    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    Why is it called earth, when it is mostly water???

  6. #20026
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    It would be nice to think that this shitty affair will at least have some positive outcomes like really lighting a fire under EU/UK alternative energy projects. It was always bloody foolish to be so dependent on russian gas.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  7. #20027
    August's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DerWish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jori McKie View Post
    More unintended consequences Putin didn't thought of:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inst-strongmen

    I don't know the dates for the election in France and Hungary but they are soonish. Even if only the people on the fence voting for anti-democratic politicians are now turning away it will be huge and hopefully a long term effect.
    Hungarian elections are on 3rd April.

    Opposition coalition is demanding a more active role (selling / donating guns, ammunitions, protective gear) in the war.

    Orban is shit scared of Putin, if you remember, he met him end of Jan this year. Long table meme, anyone?

    I think he already realized at that time Putin went bat shit crazy and he knows Hungarian military is jack shit.

    Couple of highlights from Hungary:
    - Hungarian government supports all EU sanctions. Although there were a couple news of the opposite, these were proved to be false.
    - fully opened corridor for Ukrainian refugees, no limit, weapons are confiscated at the border
    - general move from the population and government to support the refugees as we can, using public transports and the train system in Hungary is made free for the refugees
    - Hungary does not need more NATO troops (if shit hits the fan, this is going to bite Hungary extremely hard)
    - Hungary does not allow weapon donations (to Ukraine) shipped through the country
    - Hungary banned all grain export

    I'm not that proud to be a Hungarian these days.
    Those actions sound good. What makes you disappointed?

  8. #20028
    Lowa [NSN]'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    Shell and probably a few others would like to have a word...
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarminic View Post
    I would create a dragon made out of vaginas. Then I would create a dragon made out of dicks. Then I would have them fight to the death.

  9. #20029
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malcanis View Post
    It would be nice to think that this shitty affair will at least have some positive outcomes like really lighting a fire under EU/UK alternative energy projects. It was always bloody foolish to be so dependent on russian gas.
    Did I not bring up this exact issue in 2014 and several times since, and no one ever responded?

    I TOLD YOU!
    Last edited by Nordstern; March 6 2022 at 12:01:00 PM.
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  10. #20030
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    Yes you were the lone voice crying in the wilderness everyone else was too stupid to appreciate your genius
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  11. #20031
    DerWish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by August View Post
    Those actions sound good. What makes you disappointed?
    That we are not selling these in huge numbers to the Ukrainian army.

  12. #20032

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lowa [NSN] View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    Shell and probably a few others would like to have a word...
    well, there have already been some trouble getting that cheap russian oil unloaded in a port. Pipelines are another thing of course but some gas lines have already started to be unreliable as payments for product delivered are still a hassle.

  13. #20033

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    <sarcasm>The Russian Freedon Convoy protest in St. Petersburg seems to be going well, most of the city center blocked off.</sarcasm>
    https://twitter.com/bbbayh/status/15...uqyKOorPw&s=19

  14. #20034
    Fara's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    can confirm as my brother works in the industry as well. Apprently ships full of russian oil currently in holding patterns as nobody wants to get burnt with buying their product.

  15. #20035

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    can confirm as my brother works in the industry as well. Apprently ships full of russian oil currently in holding patterns as nobody wants to get burnt with buying their product.
    I can believe that but the 6 month contracts from EU countries are stll flowing. We have really been blessed with a warm winter in a consumption sense.
    Schopenhauer:

    All truth passes through three stages.
    First, it is ridiculed.
    Second, it is violently opposed.
    Third, it is accepted as being self-evident..

  16. #20036
    Malcanis's Avatar
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    One wonders if it would have affected the response to Russia had it not been such a mild winter. It really has been several degrees less cold than usual.
    Quote Originally Posted by Isyel View Post
    And btw, you're such a fucking asshole it genuinely amazes me on a regular basis how you manage to function.

  17. #20037

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    can confirm as my brother works in the industry as well. Apprently ships full of russian oil currently in holding patterns as nobody wants to get burnt with buying their product.
    Shell taking one for the team.

  18. #20038
    tulip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lancehot View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Fara View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by VARRAKK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dzajic View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    How I wish it's legit
    https://pastebin.com/FeV1aQRB
    Only big speculation is how long time Russian economy has. And how much are top rank ass-kissers and oligarchs ready to pull the rug on Vladimir Vladimirovich and make him take the blame for the embarrassment That is the true big if of current clusterfuck.
    There are more and more talk about Embargoing Russian oil. Expect to see it in the beginning of next week.
    This is the true nuclear option. It will hurt the whole world financially, but it will shatter Russian economy completely.
    Russia's war chest is very thin, lots of their money was abroad and now out of reach.
    Some 50-60% of their monetary reserves have been blocked. They should still have access to all the gold they have been buying for 20 years now.
    Regarding oil and gas embargo. Its suicide for Europe. I don't think it will come on the table unless Russians start doing the Vukovar/Grozny treatment on Ukrainian cities.
    None in Europe is touching Russian oil.
    I'm in the business, and we have had all customers asking us if we purchase Russian Crude or Gas.
    can confirm as my brother works in the industry as well. Apprently ships full of russian oil currently in holding patterns as nobody wants to get burnt with buying their product.
    Shell taking one for the team.
    I hope someone with access to his financial inducements from the company can put a figure on how much he personally stands to earn in bonuses from that sweet discounted oil purchase, this close to the end of the financial year it shouldn't be that hard to work out if it edges him over a performance target.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarminic View Post
    Just for the record, "sending a needy text" is never the right answer.

  19. #20039
    Neoo Gabriel's Avatar
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    Angry

    Long time no posting here, but In flashbacks to 2014, I knew this thread might have some interesting points of view or information.

    Let me just say that, I never expected RUS to act in such a stupendously stupid manner. I thought this was just posing to try and threaten to get their way, as is their usual method. Alas, the evidence of bad decision making and just plain incompetence just keeps piling up.

    Sure, I think I "understand" the logic/reasoning that led them down this terrible chain of events, and I am sure my government did have its part in "encouraging" the klepto/sociopaths to act out by not giving the guarantees the so desperately wanted about no NATO in Ukraine, or even perhaps goading them to act this way.

    In any case, I want to make it clear that RUS government is completely in the wrong here (and I obviously do not approve of their actions in any manner) and I just wish someone there had had the courage to stop this before it started. Maybe now the only way out with minimal suffering is a Putin resignation, assassination or coup detat.



    Here is a summary of my thoughts in how RUS badly miscalculated this:

    They decided to invade and started destroying a country with tens of millions of innocent people.

    They did not consider the global pushback, sanctions and isolation. Can they survive long without international trade?

    Clearly did not prepare for the above scenario.

    The blockade of Ukraine ports, the war situation and Sanctions on Russia in response will mean that agricultural products (including fertilizer) from Ukraine and Russia will be difficult to export, and consequently food prices globally will go up significantly in the next few months/year. High chance of civil unrest in poorer countries that buy food from that region (Egypt specifically), from famine. Think "Arab Spring" but worse - I cannot even consider how widespread and dangerous this will be.

    The Sanctions, while allowing for exceptions on energy export, will inherently and certainly cause higher energy prices globally due to supply chain constraints and payment uncertainty - who wants to run the risk of being punished for buying/delivering Russia oil/gas, or even worse, deal with the publicity backlash of helping the Devil? Higher energy prices in general means prices for everything will go up, including food.

    They fucked their own conscripts by lying to them about the fact that they would be invading Ukraine! Essentially had conscripts called up for training and then they sent them into danger without preparation, supplies, training, intel on what to expect or support like a mass suicide. Of all the things they did, I just cannot fathom how could this be... its their own people, their own soldiers! And then they have the gall to try and hide this.

    No proper planning for logistics of their troops - logically then, also certainly not to feed the occupied territories' civilian population. Famine and disease in occupied lands is sure to follow.

    They thought they could just walk in and take over the country. Never thought they would have to fight. Getting their own military destroyed.

    They invaded Russia in winter. Mud, Mud everywhere.

    I still am shocked to repeatedly see such monumental levels of military incompetence. Airborne suicide drops behind enemy lines without support - and they keep doing it! Convoys just driving down roads like lined ducks in a row, no air support escort, no scout elements, no air defense. They have lost hundreds of vehicles to antitank missile attack in this situation.

    Commentary to the above - after years of seeing videos and information about their elite troops actions in Syria, I extrapolated that level of training and effectiveness to their entire army. Certainly they would have learned a few things from watching America in Iraq, or NATO in Afghanistan - how WRONG i was, and certainly most others, in severely over-estimating the RUS military competence and capability. I now doubt their competence in most other things. What is the actual percentage of their working nuclear deterrence forces? I am sure some in the Pentagon will now even harder think they can win a first strike event...


    Besides all that, I do have a few positive things to say about this RUS invasion:
    They did not destroy the power plants or cut off power/gas to the country, which they could have done, and perhaps still can and will when things get more difficult, in order to force a surrender while holding the civilian population hostage.
    This event has brought the whole world together against a clearly defined evil. This was sorely needed after two years of COVID mass psychosis where people were going mad after turning on themselves following bad science and [political] science-based misinformation/propaganda. Now our governments can quietly undo their bad decision making and save face.

    In any case, I thought I would share some nitter (twitter without login) and other websites I use to keep up to date:
    https://nitter.net/ELINTNews
    https://nitter.net/KofmanMichael
    https://nitter.net/RALee85
    https://nitter.net/CITeam_en
    https://nitter.net/SimonOstrovsky (this is the reporter that did amazing journalism back in 2014, and was even kidnapped by FSB while working for Vice)

    Maps:
    https://militaryland.net/ukraine/deployment-map/ (this is the more accurate one I find, for showing RUS area of control/presence).
    https://liveuamap.com/ (useful as it geolocates events, but the map does not accurately represent Rus force distribution and it looks like its slanted as Pro Ukraine)

    Message boards:
    https://boards.4channel.org/k/catalog
    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/
    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/ (people are getting overzealous in their justified rage, so theres a lot of hyperbole and nonsense, as well as outright propaganda on this one, but still, lots of good info about the whole mess.)

    If any of you have other useful links, please post them as well.

    Here is to hoping this madness ends fastest with least amount of suffering.

  20. #20040
    Super Chillerator Global Moderator teds :D's Avatar
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    haha not reading that u nerd

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