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Thread: Ukraine: Russian Invasion

  1. #19181
    Movember '11 Best Facial Hair, Best 'Tache Movember 2011Movember 2012Donor helgur's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday

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  3. #19183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    I disagree. Russia can play hard now since they know USA knows it must focus countering China first and foremost. USA cannot afford to focus to much on East Europe.

    Poland and Hungary and Slovakia are all turning to Putin like dictatorships who keep explicitly hinting they can just pick up and leave when EU tries to denounce their complete disregard for rule of law, separation of powers and basic respect for their own laws and constitutions.

    Only problem for NATO about allowing Russia to eat up all of Novorusiya would be that that would bring Russia to NATO borders and next Russian request would be that Bulgaria and Romania leave NATO.

    Having most of VW part suppliers be outside of EU and under dictatorships loyal to Putin would give Russia even more leverage over Germany.

  4. #19184
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Except that Russia is already on NATO's borders.
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  5. #19185
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    Quote Originally Posted by helgur View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday
    The difference is that back then the US (and everyone else) couldnt give less of a fuck because there was no gain in giving any of those fucks, Georgia is some hole most americans dont even know exists and Ukraine rated a pretty solid 'not our problem'.

    Today however the US very desperately needs an enemy to use as a lightning rod given all the internal issues that are spiraling out of control. Terrorism no longer causes the panic attacks it used to and being too mean to china doesnt work because china can actually kick back.

    Russia on the other hand cant do shit to the US and the USSR coming back for the cold war 2.0 is a nostalgic callback that'll remind americans of that 50-60s era 'american dream, diners and family values' america they cant stop fantasizing about.

    All Russia has to do is wait for the US to collapse and then they can go nuts but if they move before then the US will jump on the opportunity to get involved.



  6. #19186
    Movember '11 Best Facial Hair, Best 'Tache Movember 2011Movember 2012Donor helgur's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by helgur View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday
    The difference is that back then the US (and everyone else) couldnt give less of a fuck because there was no gain in giving any of those fucks, Georgia is some hole most americans dont even know exists and Ukraine rated a pretty solid 'not our problem'.

    Today however the US very desperately needs an enemy to use as a lightning rod given all the internal issues that are spiraling out of control. Terrorism no longer causes the panic attacks it used to and being too mean to china doesnt work because china can actually kick back.

    Russia on the other hand cant do shit to the US and the USSR coming back for the cold war 2.0 is a nostalgic callback that'll remind americans of that 50-60s era 'american dream, diners and family values' america they cant stop fantasizing about.

    All Russia has to do is wait for the US to collapse and then they can go nuts but if they move before then the US will jump on the opportunity to get involved.
    I think this conclusion leans a bit too much on Kremlins concerns about a US response, and ignores why Russia has such a hard on for Ukraine in the first place. Apart from Crimea, Putin has no desire to actually seize Ukraine entirely. Kreml's goal is to turn Ukraine into a failed state. Putin loathes the prospect of a thriving and prosperous democratic model in the cradle of East Slavic civilization, a development that could provide Russian citizens with an increasingly palatable and inspiring framework for a democratic transition in their own country. Faced with declining influence and control over Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy, the Kremlin can achieve its objectives only with military force.

    I don't think this is as much a military security concern for Russia, even though it is very convinient for them to play this fiddle for the crowd at home. This is about regaining domestic political control, and there is a lot at stake for Putin by letting Ukraine align itself toward the west. So the question is if Ukraine's current alignment westwards is such an untenable position for the Kreml, that they would resort to military force to turn that development in their favor? I think it is, and Russia's prior action's against Ukraine should be proof enough that they will.
    Last edited by helgur; January 24 2022 at 11:14:41 PM.

  7. #19187
    Super Chillerator Global Moderator teds :D's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by helgur View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday
    The difference is that back then the US (and everyone else) couldnt give less of a fuck because there was no gain in giving any of those fucks, Georgia is some hole most americans dont even know exists and Ukraine rated a pretty solid 'not our problem'.

    Today however the US very desperately needs an enemy to use as a lightning rod given all the internal issues that are spiraling out of control. Terrorism no longer causes the panic attacks it used to and being too mean to china doesnt work because china can actually kick back.

    Russia on the other hand cant do shit to the US and the USSR coming back for the cold war 2.0 is a nostalgic callback that'll remind americans of that 50-60s era 'american dream, diners and family values' america they cant stop fantasizing about.

    All Russia has to do is wait for the US to collapse and then they can go nuts but if they move before then the US will jump on the opportunity to get involved.
    imagine taking all of the news in, and painting the US as the bad guys in this scenario.

    this is your brain on the internet.

  8. #19188
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by helgur View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday
    The difference is that back then the US (and everyone else) couldnt give less of a fuck because there was no gain in giving any of those fucks, Georgia is some hole most americans dont even know exists…
    Incorrect.

    Most Americans know Georgia is the Peach State.
    meh

  9. #19189
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    Quote Originally Posted by erichkknaar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by helgur View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday
    The difference is that back then the US (and everyone else) couldnt give less of a fuck because there was no gain in giving any of those fucks, Georgia is some hole most americans dont even know exists…
    Incorrect.

    Most Americans know Georgia is the Peach State.
    There was no gain in the Middle East invasions or in most of the wars post ww2 for americans in general, never stopped us from caring before.

  10. #19190
    Movember 2012 Elriche Oshego's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by helgur View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua Foiritain View Post
    Meh. All of this is just posturing for the folks back home in Russia. Russia isnt stupid enough to actually start invading former USSR countries until after the US collapses into civil war. Pushing earlier will just give the US a meaningful external threat that they can parade around to get the left & right to direct their hatred towards the communists instead of each other.
    Just a reminder that we've already had full scale Russian invasions of former USSR republics already (Gerogia, Donbass, Crimea. With the latter being the most overt example).

    US State Department orders families of Embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin Leaving as soon as Monday
    The difference is that back then the US (and everyone else) couldnt give less of a fuck because there was no gain in giving any of those fucks, Georgia is some hole most americans dont even know exists and Ukraine rated a pretty solid 'not our problem'.

    Today however the US very desperately needs an enemy to use as a lightning rod given all the internal issues that are spiraling out of control. Terrorism no longer causes the panic attacks it used to and being too mean to china doesnt work because china can actually kick back.

    Russia on the other hand cant do shit to the US and the USSR coming back for the cold war 2.0 is a nostalgic callback that'll remind americans of that 50-60s era 'american dream, diners and family values' america they cant stop fantasizing about.

    All Russia has to do is wait for the US to collapse and then they can go nuts but if they move before then the US will jump on the opportunity to get involved.
    imagine taking all of the news in, and painting the US as the bad guys in this scenario.

    this is your brain on the internet.
    America is going to collapse any day now!

  11. #19191
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    America won't collapse, it'll just keep developing further morbid symptoms while existing structures scramble to maintain power amidst a changing economic and social landscape.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  12. #19192
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
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  13. #19193
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    Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth best commonwealth.

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  15. #19195
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    Quote Originally Posted by August View Post
    We should invite him here. Nature likes balance.

  16. #19196
    Donor erichkknaar's Avatar
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    Matas seems like good people.
    meh

  17. #19197
    Movember '11 Best Facial Hair, Best 'Tache Movember 2011Movember 2012Donor helgur's Avatar
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    Biden and Zelensky had a phone call today where the president reportedly told the Ukrainian leader to brace for an imminent invasion

    According to sources for CNN

    This is not true. President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February. He has previously said this publicly & we have been warning about this for months. Reports of anything more or different than that are completely false
    (wh press secretary)
    Last edited by helgur; January 28 2022 at 12:47:05 AM.

  18. #19198
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    Putting troops on the border is one thing, has there been any indication of logistics being put in place which could support an invasion?
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  19. #19199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Putting troops on the border is one thing, has there been any indication of logistics being put in place which could support an invasion?
    I'm sure they just sent them there and told them to forage, because it's 1490

  20. #19200
    Movember '11 Best Facial Hair, Best 'Tache Movember 2011Movember 2012Donor helgur's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keckers View Post
    Putting troops on the border is one thing, has there been any indication of logistics being put in place which could support an invasion?
    Western intelligence says there has been no forward field hospitals put in place, and they need that to support an invasion. That is an indication in itself. It's when they bring out the doctors alarm bells are going to go off.

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