I am actually shocked he made the statements he did in front of a camera.
Ukraine military restricts journalists' access to front
I believe both sides are guilty of not respecting free press. We have seen journalists from both sides get captured or taken hostage.. BUT! I think this one is partly to blame on journalists. Some of the people that call themselves "Journalists" are really just propaganda puppets but still abuse PRESS as tag, like Graham Philips on RUS side or EspressoTV on UKr side.
These fools make it impossible for actual journalists to work safely, so that rule is something that makes sense for both sides to implement.
Firsthand report on Russian Spring by a sevastopol resident, german recon married to a russian gal from what i understood.
My guess on the next steps:
Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin already agreed on a pull out scenario with Russia saving face. The economic ties have shown what people have said before, Russia using weapons and military is a sign of weakness, not strenght. Winter is there, Russia is getting stoneaged.
I believe Putin will be allowed to claim a grand strategic masterplan victory to his brainwashed polulation. Reality will be Donbass reverting back to "independence under ukies" and crimea staying nonrecognized. In return for pulling his goons out of Donbass, putin gets sanctions lifted and RoubleSTRONK.
I doubt Russia will even be allowed to keep their Crimean naval base after this, as that will be seen as a potential threat to future stability and sovereign integrity of Ukrainian territory. And SA will want Russia out of Syria in exchange for cutting production, so Russia will also come out badly in the middle-east.
Are you an engineer? -- Quack
If the west wants to negotiate an out that he'll actually accept, they won't put that kind of condition on it.
Originally Posted by Loire
In what way exactly is he in control if all the people start using Ukrainian currency to do business in? If all the imports and exports get smuggled through ukraine and all the bribes to keep this going are paid in anything but Russian money?
Economic collapse will result in losing crimea. Full economic collapse will mean the military will have to be sacked so they won't even be able to prop things up with them. With the Saudi attitude and the total absence of any export except oil this is really on the cards.
I'm trying to think of a good example of this happening before but I'm drawing a blank. I don't think anyone else with such a precarious economy has so naively invested in their military. Nor had new territory to lose in the crash.
I'm leaving that auto correct error cos I like it. You might not even be able to guess which word it was.
The trouble with that scenario is it presupposes that the West will keep up the pressure beyond the point of no return for Putin, risking Russia going full failed state. I find it more likely that they will ease the pressure off earlier (is. After getting Russia to withdraw from East Ukrain): due largely to the cost to their own economies and that pushing a nuclear armed state over the brink is not good policy.
The aim is to teach Russia a lesson and to assist Ukraine, not to break Russia. To get the Crimea back Russia needs to be broken.
Expecting any answer other than "no" and a laugh in your face from Putin (or any Russian politician) over Crimea is naive.
Originally Posted by Loire