Well, here's what we do know:
1) The wormhole coalition 'NATO' started moving capitals and Bhaalgorns and such into our wormhole.
2) On the weekend of the 8th October, we happened across a large fleet of WH corps (some cool guys I like, and a few smacky aharm types) in high sec. Narwhals Ate my Duck, Aperture Harmonics, No Holes Barred, Transmission Lost, Talocan (sp?) and Adhocracy Inc. You can see for yourself here:
3) This fleet then flew around high sec a bit, gathered more reinforcements and flew to the low sec system where our static wh was connected. We had not put the WH in critical. You'll recall when we destroyed Aperture Harmonic's system 'Polaris' that we even published the entrances of the static and invited them to enter freely to man their own defence. This was KEEN's idea and incredibly sporting - if it were up to me I probably wouldn't make it so easy for people
4) Realising that a 100man WH blob was on the way, we batphoned some fine folk and assembled on the wh. As you can see here, we had a T2 ANCHORED BUBBLE that kept our carriers 40+ km from the wormhole, so clearly we couldn't collapse this in a hurry:
You'll note we have only 20 in fleet at the time but we're still up for the fight (granted I would have tried to get a few more on though).
Now, if you want, you can believe that we had cloaked carriers somehow ready to collapse the wormhole. However, why not then just collapse it and save ourselves the trouble of logging in? Surely too, the carrier would have to slowboat through the bubble and then cloak? And if we left it there all night, on its own, surely it would have been seen by a scout and killed by all those assets the coalition have logged off here?
I think this puts to rest any questions of a cloaked carrier.
5) After some thought, the AHARM coalition led fleet chooses not to jump, and instead goes home to high sec.
6) The coalition fleet does not return, and if it formed up somewhere, we never found it on the weekend of the 15th.
7) We have a week of fun doing random things in wh space against other people, including a nice fight with Nulli.
8) On the weekend of the 15th an AHARM member gets fed up and sells us their CEO's dread, which was logged off in the system.
9) On the weekend of the 15th, too, we see carrier wrecks on scan in deep safes and safespots, presumably from self-destructed capitals.
10) On the evening of the 18th, despite seemingly asking half a dozen alliances and an entire coalition of the willing to help them beat a corp of about 20 real guys who knocked them off their wormhole perch, and then failing, an AHARM member starts smacking.