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Thread: Mafiaheap Challange Round 10 Game Thread: Text Formatting Shortcuts

  1. #21
    Movember '12 Ginger Excellence Movember 2011Movember 2012 LarkinAlpha's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quarantine View Post
    Normally abstaining would be the best move, but after the last two games I think the best play for the village would be to lynch Cheese first. Otherwise he will do random shit for the entire game, nobody can get a read on him anyway and he will probably mess up the villages endgame. If he is one of the neutral roles or mafia, it's all the better, and if he has an important power role, we're fucked anyway, so it's not going to make much difference. Thus, $cheese nipples.
    Sow now I'm torn between pushing for Cheese before he's even posted or Abstaining... hrmm.

  2. #22
    Nobody_Holme's Avatar
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    The loss based on a worst case scenario of cheese being the sheriff (thats the worst, right?) is still better than the worst case scenario of no lynch day one (mafia hits sheriff at random, village gets zero information from the day because the mafia could hide behind the people voting abstain with little to no justification).

    It is to be fair the same for anyone you would normally want to kill day one (spam flare when he was being spammy, etc)

  3. #23
    Moderator Movember 2011DonorModerator Cue1*'s Avatar
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    That was true in the old spasm rules, where unless everyone abstains, then whoever had the most votes. However, that's not the rules this time.

    Quote Originally Posted by spasm View Post
    Majority Abstain = no lynch, except on moderator-designated Must Lynch days
    If we get a majority abstain, it gives us the opportunity to at least have a somewhat better chance to pick up hit of someone mafia. This way we don't blindly guess at someone and pop the sheriff.

    :Tabletz:

  4. #24
    Nobody_Holme's Avatar
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    You're right, but at the same time, I still prefer the odds of the random kill than helping the mafia out by doing nowt.

  5. #25
    Moderator Movember 2011DonorModerator Cue1*'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nobody_Holme View Post
    You're right, but at the same time, I still prefer the odds of the random kill than helping the mafia out by doing nowt.
    This game is so role heavy though, we're bound to hit someone with a role. That said, should someone be interested, I could be convinced to vote for someone instead of abstaining. Provide good proof(as much as you can get on day one) of someone being mafia and I'll vote.

    :Tabletz:

  6. #26
    Administrator EntroX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nobody_Holme View Post
    You're right, but at the same time, I still prefer the odds of the random kill than helping the mafia out by doing nowt.
    that is the argument i am having in the pre-game thread.

    i am honestly not sure why would you skip the chance of killing a random with such a large power-role pool

    i'll take my vote later anyways since i believe abstaining is pretty dumb (unless someone can explain me why it isnt, i posted on the other thread and i'd love to hear a real reason not to)
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  7. #27
    Kilabi's Avatar
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    We had the math done at some point and with the old boring ruleset it was like a 12,5% chance to be favourable for the villagers and everything else a total disaster. With the huge amount of roles I would have to do the math again but :effort: so I will join the bandwagon to kill the most useless "villager" and taking the chance to even kill a mafia or neutral role.

    If he has a proper role he can always come forward with it and try to convince us.

  8. #28
    Nobody_Holme's Avatar
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    Steph will be along with a graph at some point to explain the other side of the argument.

  9. #29
    Administrator EntroX's Avatar
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    there's slightly more non-village offensive roles than villagers themselves, so its a rather good odd imo
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  10. #30
    big diiiiiiiiick Movember 2012Donor Dark Flare's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EntroX View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobody_Holme View Post
    You're right, but at the same time, I still prefer the odds of the random kill than helping the mafia out by doing nowt.
    that is the argument i am having in the pre-game thread.

    i am honestly not sure why would you skip the chance of killing a random with such a large power-role pool

    i'll take my vote later anyways since i believe abstaining is pretty dumb (unless someone can explain me why it isnt, i posted on the other thread and i'd love to hear a real reason not to)
    because you're mostly likely to hit a villager, and day1 is always a random lynch so the argument of "maf can hide in the abstains" is stupid beacuse they'll just hide in cheese votes instead
    Quote Originally Posted by Amantus
    whats tyhe appear of a shnitifuck cu nt eve onlio9ne corpotraTION DICKOLHEAD FUCKIN AS

  11. #31
    Administrator EntroX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Flare View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by EntroX View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobody_Holme View Post
    You're right, but at the same time, I still prefer the odds of the random kill than helping the mafia out by doing nowt.
    that is the argument i am having in the pre-game thread.

    i am honestly not sure why would you skip the chance of killing a random with such a large power-role pool

    i'll take my vote later anyways since i believe abstaining is pretty dumb (unless someone can explain me why it isnt, i posted on the other thread and i'd love to hear a real reason not to)
    because you're mostly likely to hit a villager, and day1 is always a random lynch so the argument of "maf can hide in the abstains" is stupid beacuse they'll just hide in cheese votes instead
    yeah, i understand that but personally i would like to see more of a tangible reason, do please share on the pre-game thread since i find it interesting.

    sorry for the "off-topic" re: the thread
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  12. #32
    Qwert's Avatar
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    Read the game 9 thread again. The first 48 hour day was a handful of joke darkflare votes, a bit of sperging, and nothing interesting. Compare that to the flightly lynch day, where nearly everyone was posting, votes were swapping, etc.

    While the day one lynch may be negative for the village from a pure :game theory: probability perspective, you ignore the human part of the game. Like Cheese being a liability for literally every role playing except arsonist

  13. #33
    Administrator EntroX's Avatar
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    right, so i just did the math and yeah, i see the reasoning make sense now, plus apparently we don't know how many vanilla villagers there are so it all fits now i guess. i was just looking at the general picture and what i saw was wrong, apologies.

    the ratio of power roles to village ratio tilts in the favor of the first so yeah...
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  14. #34
    dpidcoe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Qwert View Post
    While the day one lynch may be negative for the village from a pure :game theory: probability perspective, you ignore the human part of the game.
    Basically this.

  15. #35
    Nobody_Holme's Avatar
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    The thing is, mafia can hide anywhere, but wherever they hide, information you gain later can tie back to these posts and tell you who is mafia and who isnt.

    Also, spreadsheets can catch some people in the act, because they're dumb, and the day 1 vote gives fuel to catching those people early and thus more patterns to work from to pick up the other people who're better at the game.

  16. #36
    Bentguru's Avatar
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    If we're going to off anybody it should definitely be cheese, he's been a massive liability in every village end-game he's been in. Including the last two.

  17. #37
    Administrator EntroX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bentguru View Post
    If we're going to off anybody it should definitely be cheese, he's been a massive liability in every village end-game he's been in. Including the last two.
    and he ruined my plot in the last round too


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  18. #38
    Movember '12 Ginger Excellence Movember 2011Movember 2012 LarkinAlpha's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bentguru View Post
    If we're going to off anybody it should definitely be cheese, he's been a massive liability in every village end-game he's been in. Including the last two.
    Quote Originally Posted by EntroX View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bentguru View Post
    If we're going to off anybody it should definitely be cheese, he's been a massive liability in every village end-game he's been in. Including the last two.
    and he ruined my plot in the last round too


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2
    He's only played in the last two games...

  19. #39
    pratell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LarkinAlpha View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bentguru View Post
    If we're going to off anybody it should definitely be cheese, he's been a massive liability in every village end-game he's been in. Including the last two.
    Quote Originally Posted by EntroX View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bentguru View Post
    If we're going to off anybody it should definitely be cheese, he's been a massive liability in every village end-game he's been in. Including the last two.
    and he ruined my plot in the last round too


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2
    He's only played in the last two games...
    so he's not wrong is he
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  20. #40
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    15 Village to 12 Mafia + Neuts = Day 1 $Abstain in my book.

    I'm tempted to go with a random lynch though, because if you take away normal villagers and count them as expendable its only 11 Village Power Roles against 12 Mafia + Neut Power Roles, which makes it more palatable, but with so few villagers I don't think they can be considered expendable this game.

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