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Kai
April 14 2014, 11:09:11 AM
Helgur made a valiant attempt but it's almost certainly doomed to fail.

Post thoughts / questions on whats happening in the Ukraine here.

Still of the opinion if you read this through a realist lense, not much out of the ordinary is going on. Only key difference is we no longer think the 'ordinary' way of international politics is 'normal' anymore.

cullnean
April 14 2014, 11:45:55 AM
This thread is pointless

Sent from my HUAWEI P6-U06 using Tapatalk

Sp4m
April 14 2014, 01:25:22 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Lallante
April 14 2014, 03:44:33 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.

I agree with cull that this thread is pointless - the main point of the other thread is to bait Razor.

Sp4m
April 14 2014, 03:48:40 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.

I agree with cull that this thread is pointless - the main point of the other thread is to bait Razor.

Okay didn't realise.

And yeah plus its quite depressing how little the "west" is doing to help. I mean its nice to keep up to date with current affairs but since we aren't even Sabre rattling then...well... its a bit sad.

Its not even like its their (Ukraine) own fault really , they just have a really corrupt government so its not like they could even into EU/Nato if they wanted.

I just hope it doesn't end up in nukes, whatever happens. Such a shitty way to go.

Synapse
April 14 2014, 06:27:11 PM
I look forward to a thread with less bear-baiting.

1) State of loans? I remember Ukraine had to pay 15bn or something? They got 1bn from Europe and 1bn from the usa...does that leave them 13bn in debt to Russia still or is it more likely my memory is faulty?
2) "Separatist" confirmations? Have we had any direct identifications of people being arrested or shot as part of the government buildings takeover. Several people died over the weekend on both sides...I suspect some of them are being identified.

Will be interesting to know if the resulting ID shows a Russian or Ukrainian citizen. Even then, it wouldn't be hard at this point for Russia to be organizing and funding Ukrainians who want to do this...so ID and sourcing on the weapons and gear he was using would also be interesting.

I see a lot of people in matching fatigues and combat boots with AKs marching around in images as "volunteers". Either someone is outfitting them or accurate military outfits are the latest fad.

RazoR
April 14 2014, 06:48:02 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.hahaha

Everybody should chill. Noone is interested in my input because i'm way too biased so i won't post here.

Synapse
April 14 2014, 07:45:41 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.hahaha

Everybody should chill. Noone is interested in my input because i'm way too biased so i won't post here.

Quite interested in your input, so long as you keep the trolling out. That's the point here.

SAI Peregrinus
April 14 2014, 08:42:00 PM
When this whole thing started I was reminded of the manual for the old SU-27 Flanker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Su-27_Flanker_%28video_game%29) game, IIRC it included a good-sized section on why they set it in the Crimea. IIRC it was mostly about the strategic control over the region that is afforded by controlling Crimea being quite high. Might be interesting if anyone can find a copy.

Paradox
April 14 2014, 11:22:44 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.hahaha

Everybody should chill. Noone is interested in my input because i'm way too biased so i won't post here.

Your input might be among the most interesting if you can offer any insight.

The other thread obviously isn't interested in that.

Personally I would like to know your opinion on the assertion that the armed protesters that we see are Russian armed forces personnel.

The new Ukrainian government doesn't seem interested in accusing Russia of planting agents, but maybe they have been and the sources I read haven't been reporting it.

Edit: also I don't know how much TV you watch but I'd be interested to know how the media/ news in Russia is spinning it.

Keorythe
April 14 2014, 11:38:16 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.hahaha

Everybody should chill. Noone is interested in my input because i'm way too biased so i won't post here.

Your input might be among the most interesting if you can offer any insight.

The other thread obviously isn't interested in that.

Personally I would like to know your opinion on the assertion that the armed protesters that we see are Russian armed forces personnel.

The new Ukrainian government doesn't seem interested in accusing Russia of planting agents, but maybe they have been and the sources I read haven't been reporting it.

Edit: also I don't know how much TV you watch but I'd be interested to know how the media/ news in Russia is spinning it.

They have actually made those claims but not nearly as aggressively as we see in western media. The problem is that they've had plenty of defections from their own police forces including SBU units. Those could theoretically incite and direct others. So more than likely they're holding back on getting too aggressive with their own accusations. There's also the whole "west sponsored Euromaiden" that they have to contend with and the probably don't want to go down that same road of throwing the exact same accusations.

But that brings us to the issue of para-militias. Those things were tightly controlled in Ukraine and especially in Russia. For them to suddenly appear well armed and organized points to an outside force giving orders and planning. That's far outside the realm of any SBU units whose specialties. And make no mistake, compared to the barely organized mob of Euromaiden, these groups are light years ahead. We aren't seeing any sort of social media being used as communications or organization like we did with Euromaiden and there doesn't seem to be any central figures to have a dialogue. So draw your conclusions from that.

Synapse
April 15 2014, 05:46:47 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.hahaha

Everybody should chill. Noone is interested in my input because i'm way too biased so i won't post here.

Your input might be among the most interesting if you can offer any insight.

The other thread obviously isn't interested in that.

Personally I would like to know your opinion on the assertion that the armed protesters that we see are Russian armed forces personnel.

The new Ukrainian government doesn't seem interested in accusing Russia of planting agents, but maybe they have been and the sources I read haven't been reporting it.

Edit: also I don't know how much TV you watch but I'd be interested to know how the media/ news in Russia is spinning it.

They have actually made those claims but not nearly as aggressively as we see in western media. The problem is that they've had plenty of defections from their own police forces including SBU units. Those could theoretically incite and direct others. So more than likely they're holding back on getting too aggressive with their own accusations. There's also the whole "west sponsored Euromaiden" that they have to contend with and the probably don't want to go down that same road of throwing the exact same accusations.

But that brings us to the issue of para-militias. Those things were tightly controlled in Ukraine and especially in Russia. For them to suddenly appear well armed and organized points to an outside force giving orders and planning. That's far outside the realm of any SBU units whose specialties. And make no mistake, compared to the barely organized mob of Euromaiden, these groups are light years ahead. We aren't seeing any sort of social media being used as communications or organization like we did with Euromaiden and there doesn't seem to be any central figures to have a dialogue. So draw your conclusions from that.

Exactly my take on it.

I don't really need the accusations in any media to conclude they seem to be organized and funded by some competent government. What I understand less is why no one is going to the next step of posting the whole charade. Crackdown on one of the better funded looking groups, take some of their stuff and post the resulting proof that they wouldn't have had it.

Kai
April 15 2014, 10:59:08 PM
You do realize Razor can post here too, right?

Pretty sure he was banned long ago.hahaha

Everybody should chill. Noone is interested in my input because i'm way too biased so i won't post here.

Your input might be among the most interesting if you can offer any insight.

The other thread obviously isn't interested in that.

Personally I would like to know your opinion on the assertion that the armed protesters that we see are Russian armed forces personnel.

The new Ukrainian government doesn't seem interested in accusing Russia of planting agents, but maybe they have been and the sources I read haven't been reporting it.

Edit: also I don't know how much TV you watch but I'd be interested to know how the media/ news in Russia is spinning it.

They have actually made those claims but not nearly as aggressively as we see in western media. The problem is that they've had plenty of defections from their own police forces including SBU units. Those could theoretically incite and direct others. So more than likely they're holding back on getting too aggressive with their own accusations. There's also the whole "west sponsored Euromaiden" that they have to contend with and the probably don't want to go down that same road of throwing the exact same accusations.

But that brings us to the issue of para-militias. Those things were tightly controlled in Ukraine and especially in Russia. For them to suddenly appear well armed and organized points to an outside force giving orders and planning. That's far outside the realm of any SBU units whose specialties. And make no mistake, compared to the barely organized mob of Euromaiden, these groups are light years ahead. We aren't seeing any sort of social media being used as communications or organization like we did with Euromaiden and there doesn't seem to be any central figures to have a dialogue. So draw your conclusions from that.

Exactly my take on it.

I don't really need the accusations in any media to conclude they seem to be organized and funded by some competent government. What I understand less is why no one is going to the next step of posting the whole charade. Crackdown on one of the better funded looking groups, take some of their stuff and post the resulting proof that they wouldn't have had it.

Because step one of your plan: 'Crackdown on one of the better funded looking groups' requires major firefights in populated urban centres. That takes some time to do right (where right includes: not needlessly endangering your own citizens, not triggering massive Russian reaction). As the ambush of the assault team a couple of days ago showed; the Ukrainian SF is also needing to clean house first because otherwise their OPSEC is screwed.

Edit: given events of the last few days (ie. retaking the airfield) a lot of this stuff should be falling into Ukrainian hands. Which is about 7 days after the start - and about 5 days after the ambush slowed things down.

ValorousBob
April 19 2014, 06:51:31 AM
There's also the whole "west sponsored Euromaiden" that they have to contend with and the probably don't want to go down that same road of throwing the exact same accusations.

Ok this was mentioned in the main thread, but I want to ask here. Does anyone seriously think the US was NOT involved in the Euromaiden protests? I'm not into the ~tinfoil~ stuff and I'm not saying the American government started the whole thing, but the CIA is one of the most brazen and reckless intelligence agencies in history. They have a hefty resume of inciting discontent and rebellion against enemy regimes. Assisting the Euromaiden seems like low-hanging-fruit compared to some of the other shit the CIA has gotten themselves into, and yet I see people dismissing western involvement in the Euromaiden as totally ridiculous.

AmaNutin
April 19 2014, 06:52:47 AM
In other news: more coverage in Vice News of Eastern Ukraine (27)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mywTyAhlJM

Badboy K
April 19 2014, 07:04:54 AM
what a clusterfuck situation

TheManFromDelmonte
April 19 2014, 10:23:02 AM
What exactly do you mean by involvement?

Advice on building burning tyre barriers? I don't think the cia have much experience with that.

Advice on printing leaflets and using twitter to build support? Well it's not exactly cia work but sure some ngos would help out. Those ngos can have cia embedded in them, with or without the knowledge of the ngo themselves.

Weapons and money? Uf they do this they do it at the top and the people at the top have plenty of money and access to weapons and military jackets and riot shields.

Basically I can't see any way in which cia involvement would actually matter. The thousands of protesters didn't stick it out for months because their cia handler told them too. The euromaiden group was downright angry when more corrupt industry captains got into government after the president ran away, even if they were western friendly. Only the election promise has kept them quiet and it remains to be seen how quiet they'll be once the results are in.

Finally, if it was a cia orchestrated revolt they must have loved it when public protest was banned. It made their job a lot easier.

Even treating western involvement as something worth discussing is to accept the Russian idea that it should have exclusive influence over its neighbouring countries. Ukraine borders europe, it carries a lot of gas to europe, its president banned protest. That's plenty of reason for europe and allies to do something, and no less reason than Russia has to do something.

ValorousBob
April 19 2014, 06:00:28 PM
What exactly do you mean by involvement?

Help with organizing defense of the square against the police, setting up the logistics chain that supplied the protesters, possibly help making sure the extremists didn't take over, etc.


Finally, if it was a cia orchestrated revolt they must have loved it when public protest was banned. It made their job a lot easier.

Again, I don't think the CIA orchestrated the whole thing, but they are oppurtunists.


Even treating western involvement as something worth discussing is to accept the Russian idea that it should have exclusive influence over its neighbouring countries. Ukraine borders europe, it carries a lot of gas to europe, its president banned protest. That's plenty of reason for europe and allies to do something, and no less reason than Russia has to do something.

First, I think it's worth acknowledging, but yeah not necessarily worth discussing beyond the fact that it probably happened. Second, the existence of western help does not, in any way, justify the Russian idea that it should have an exclusive sphere of influence. I agree that the west has a lot of good reasons for being involved in Ukraine, and Russia's claim to the contrary is just hurf blurf.

Keorythe
April 19 2014, 06:27:53 PM
What exactly do you mean by involvement?

Help with organizing defense of the square against the police, setting up the logistics chain that supplied the protesters, possibly help making sure the extremists didn't take over, etc.

Negative on all accounts. The defense was very disorganized and not particularly good. Several of the feeble attempts the police made had no real effort behind it and the one time police used an APC it was firebombed with cocktails. The logistics train was well documented and we saw how the protesters often operated on a shoestring budget as far as food, bottles, and equipment went. Their diets were primarily of bread which was made by several local bakeries on their side of things. Other food stuffs was brought in by family and volunteers. Those that put it together are known and if there was a CIA plant then they would have stuck out (and Russia would have their face plastered everywhere).



Finally, if it was a cia orchestrated revolt they must have loved it when public protest was banned. It made their job a lot easier.

Again, I don't think the CIA orchestrated the whole thing, but they are oppurtunists.

Most definitely they are opportunists. But Euromaiden took off and took on a life of its own within a very short period. Clandestine operations don't get put together in that short of a time without being very overt.

The fact is that the US never had the close ties to manipulate the area like Russia does. Claiming that the whole affair was a CIA operation or supported by them has little to stand on. But one of the first things you do to an enemy is discredit them. Consider the history of Russia and Ukraine then bring in the big bad boogeyman of the CIA. Could you imagine the perspective if Texas or California was attempting to succeed and the US government suddenly claimed it was a KGB backed operation? When you tell the pro-Russian groups in Ukraine and in your home Russia, it makes the Russian side appear the victim and makes the other side as nothing more than outsider puppets. They claimed this same narrative during their Crimea takeover.

AmaNutin
April 21 2014, 08:03:22 PM
More Vice news (dispatch 28)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNig07RtWxA

Styx
April 22 2014, 06:55:48 PM
VICE News journalist Simon Ostrovsky reportedly taken hostage by separatists in Eastern Ukraine (https://news.vice.com/articles/vice-news-statement-on-simon-ostrovsky?trk_source=homepage-in-the-news)

Synapse
April 25 2014, 08:02:36 PM
VICE News journalist Simon Ostrovsky reportedly taken hostage by separatists in Eastern Ukraine (https://news.vice.com/articles/vice-news-statement-on-simon-ostrovsky?trk_source=homepage-in-the-news)

He's been confirmed freed fyi.

AmaNutin
April 26 2014, 02:41:31 AM
He asked too pointed a question of the self-appointed mayor, if you watch dispatch 29.

Frug
April 28 2014, 04:34:59 PM
This forum is pointless

Fixed that for you.

A less shit discussion would be nice, but it takes more people to do that.

AmaNutin
April 28 2014, 05:56:33 PM
Well, ignoring Razor has certainly fixed the other thread.

So further gas sanctions, and posturing. Does anyone think the NATO nations might actually commit forces if an actual invasion comes?

Keorythe
April 29 2014, 01:31:37 AM
Ironically, Simon's release has given much more fuel to move against the separatists. Hostages and not targeting killings may finally push the military past the "we don't want to kill civilians" to "time to bust criminals and save hostages". Heard about the pro-Ukraine mayor that just got shot today on NPR. They also talked about english speakers being targeted as spies and to be "turned in" to separatist militias.

I can understand some wanting to become part of Russia again (grass is greener scenario) after having to deal with a corrupt government albeit helped along by Russia. But things are really starting to get scary. It's going to be interesting if a referendum ever does happen and whether international observers will ever be allowed in.

AmaNutin
April 29 2014, 06:45:15 AM
I can understand some wanting to become part of Russia again (grass is greener scenario) after having to deal with a corrupt government albeit helped along by Russia. But things are really starting to get scary. It's going to be interesting if a referendum ever does happen and whether international observers will ever be allowed in.

Or out, right? I mean, I don't recall the team that's being held having any updates.

I'm not sure what goalposts Ukraine's military has, aside from trying to recapture the government buildings and determine if there's Russian agents on their soil.

Kai
April 29 2014, 10:44:38 AM
I can understand some wanting to become part of Russia again (grass is greener scenario) after having to deal with a corrupt government albeit helped along by Russia. But things are really starting to get scary. It's going to be interesting if a referendum ever does happen and whether international observers will ever be allowed in.

Or out, right? I mean, I don't recall the team that's being held having any updates.

I'm not sure what goalposts Ukraine's military has, aside from trying to recapture the government buildings and determine if there's Russian agents on their soil.

Get paid; don't die; not be responsible for starting a civil war; not be responsible for given Russian grounds to invade.

In all seriousness, given the way things on the ground have developed it would be incredibly brave for the Ukrainian military to do anything. They've got nothing to gain and everything to lose; from their POV the sooner this is resolved without recourse to violence the better it is for them.

(Correct me if I'm a little outdated and their political masters have got them to be active).

Frug
April 29 2014, 04:14:15 PM
Ironically, Simon's release has given much more fuel to move against the separatists. Hostages and not targeting killings may finally push the military past the "we don't want to kill civilians" to "time to bust criminals and save hostages". Heard about the pro-Ukraine mayor that just got shot today on NPR. They also talked about english speakers being targeted as spies and to be "turned in" to separatist militias.

I can understand some wanting to become part of Russia again (grass is greener scenario) after having to deal with a corrupt government albeit helped along by Russia. But things are really starting to get scary. It's going to be interesting if a referendum ever does happen and whether international observers will ever be allowed in.

It's been scary for individuals living there for a long time, imo. I'm pretty sure the locals have been afraid from the very start to stand out as opposing the interests of the bullies, who have been around longer than this and are now supported by even scarier people like the FSB. You can see it in the face of that 'mayor' who had Simon kidnapped. This guy isn't new, he's been there, he has friends there, and I think people are scared of that sort of thing. You don't oppose those guys. No referendum is meaningful in that situation.

Ukraine itself looks far too dysfunctional to organize anything. They have no communication, their men don't want to pick the wrong side in this mess either. They get mobbed by civilians who beat up their police. It ain't working, man.


Get paid; don't die; not be responsible for starting a civil war; not be responsible for given Russian grounds to invade.
Well put.

There was a decent piece on the CBC about the information war Russia is running to convince the people there that Western ukraine is full of fascists who want to take away their rights. And we should all already know that Putin has been taking over all the Russian media. That sad part is that it clearly works.

Tiny
May 3 2014, 11:01:10 PM
Western Ukraine is being run by fascists, russia would be foolish to ignore this.

Would the USA do nothing to respond to a Russian funded coup in Mexico?

Tiny
May 15 2014, 01:08:30 AM
At last, a UK paper has grown some balls.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/13/ukraine-us-war-russia-john-pilger

Hast
May 15 2014, 09:25:52 AM
At last, a UK paper has grown some balls.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/13/ukraine-us-war-russia-john-pilger

commentisfree = Not the newspaper

RazoR
May 15 2014, 09:45:25 AM
At last, a UK paper has grown some balls.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/13/ukraine-us-war-russia-john-pilgerI am sorry (to post here) but most of this article is vast exaggeration when not borderline schizophrenic.

QuackBot
May 15 2014, 12:00:12 PM
Fixed that for you.

A less shit discussion would be nice, but it takes more people to do that.
Would be shit.

RazoR
November 14 2014, 06:39:16 PM
hello

noticed this got english captions

enjoy


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfzMnP3ilcI

xoxo

DevilDude
November 27 2014, 04:06:22 AM
hello

noticed this got english captions

enjoy


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfzMnP3ilcI

xoxo

I didn't think you could do worse than Fox News, I was wrong. Most of his points are debatable and presented in a fashion to be as inflammatory as possible. Serious question: is that representative of what the majority in Russia considers informed opinion? Because his constant button pushing is coming through very clear despite whatever's lost in translation, is it more eloquent in Russian? Because from where I'm sitting it looks/sounds like the video equivelent of one of those anti japanese propaganda posters from WWII depicting buck toothed Japanese with goblin like faces wearing tiny glasses.

RazoR
November 29 2014, 03:58:58 PM
“My idea is, by changing the law, to allow foreigners into state service, including government seats, or extend the list of persons the president can grant Ukrainian citizenship, through fast tracking,” Poroshenko said.http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/poroshenko-wants-to-see-foreigners-heading-ukraines-fbi-fill-cabinet-positions-373315.html


Most of his points are debatableDebate away.

RazoR
November 29 2014, 11:08:21 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/28/ukraine-militias-threaten-anti-kiev-coup.html

Kai
November 29 2014, 11:39:49 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/28/ukraine-militias-threaten-anti-kiev-coup.html

It seems cracks are showing on both sides, with noise of the coup in Luhansk.

RazoR
November 30 2014, 12:15:34 AM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/28/ukraine-militias-threaten-anti-kiev-coup.html

It seems cracks are showing on both sides, with noise of the coup in Luhansk.

Not really a coup, more like infighting. I hear Kozitsyn's cossacks were the first on the chopping block for having notoriously low act/talk ratio.

metacannibal
November 30 2014, 05:04:49 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/28/ukraine-militias-threaten-anti-kiev-coup.html

It seems cracks are showing on both sides, with noise of the coup in Luhansk.

Not really a coup, more like infighting. I hear Kozitsyn's cossacks were the first on the chopping block for having notoriously low act/talk ratio.

Or because he spilled the beans on the MH17 shootdown to vice? More likely to be honest.

RazoR
November 30 2014, 08:01:54 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/28/ukraine-militias-threaten-anti-kiev-coup.html

It seems cracks are showing on both sides, with noise of the coup in Luhansk.

Not really a coup, more like infighting. I hear Kozitsyn's cossacks were the first on the chopping block for having notoriously low act/talk ratio.

Or because he spilled the beans on the MH17 shootdown to vice? More likely to be honest.

Doesn't that fall under the "talk" category?

metacannibal
December 1 2014, 07:38:04 PM
Doesn't that fall under the "talk" category?

I dont think so, to me this doesnt seem forged but actual Kozitsyn
http://youtu.be/cYEH6Tfzouo?t=6m41s

I am actually shocked he made the statements he did in front of a camera.

RazoR
December 2 2014, 12:52:58 AM
Ukraine military restricts journalists' access to front

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-military-restricts-access-of-journalists-to-frontline-373699.html

metacannibal
December 2 2014, 11:23:30 AM
I believe both sides are guilty of not respecting free press. We have seen journalists from both sides get captured or taken hostage.. BUT! I think this one is partly to blame on journalists. Some of the people that call themselves "Journalists" are really just propaganda puppets but still abuse PRESS as tag, like Graham Philips on RUS side or EspressoTV on UKr side.
These fools make it impossible for actual journalists to work safely, so that rule is something that makes sense for both sides to implement.

RazoR
December 4 2014, 04:22:25 PM
Firsthand report on Russian Spring by a sevastopol resident, german recon married to a russian gal from what i understood.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?242911-Synopsis-of-events-in-Sevastopol-and-Krimea-late-February-early-March

Nordstern
December 4 2014, 05:40:02 PM
Firsthand report on Russian Spring by a sevastopol resident, german recon married to a russian gal from what i understood.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?242911-Synopsis-of-events-in-Sevastopol-and-Krimea-late-February-early-March
I've invented better stories than that.

RazoR
December 4 2014, 07:12:32 PM
Firsthand report on Russian Spring by a sevastopol resident, german recon married to a russian gal from what i understood.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?242911-Synopsis-of-events-in-Sevastopol-and-Krimea-late-February-early-March
I've invented better stories than that.
Sorry but this is serious business forum so unless you can provide an arguement your input is not valuable.

You could start by posting that story of yours.

QuackBot
December 4 2014, 08:00:13 PM
I've invented better stories than that.
Other than that it works better?

RazoR
December 6 2014, 06:39:02 AM
http://i.imgur.com/2Z1hazS.png (https://www.facebook.com/ronpaul/posts/10153556444671686)

Sp4m
December 9 2014, 03:38:06 PM
i won't post here.

QuackBot
December 9 2014, 04:00:27 PM
Ukraine military restricts journalists' access to front

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-military-restricts-access-of-journalists-to-frontline-373699.html
Http://www.kyivpost.com/umpwb27.jpg[/img] i would [i]kek.[/i.

RazoR
December 9 2014, 07:11:04 PM
i won't post here.This is truly a priceless contribution, sir.

QuackBot
December 9 2014, 08:00:13 PM
Ukraine military restricts journalists' access to front

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-military-restricts-access-of-journalists-to-frontline-373699.html
Good dancing practice here https://www.kyivpost.com/qmahiq7.jpg?oh=893df7fc0596cc442976612d282436ec&oe=53c30a56[/img][/spoiler.

metacannibal
December 17 2014, 10:16:15 AM
My guess on the next steps:

Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin already agreed on a pull out scenario with Russia saving face. The economic ties have shown what people have said before, Russia using weapons and military is a sign of weakness, not strenght. Winter is there, Russia is getting stoneaged.
I believe Putin will be allowed to claim a grand strategic masterplan victory to his brainwashed polulation. Reality will be Donbass reverting back to "independence under ukies" and crimea staying nonrecognized. In return for pulling his goons out of Donbass, putin gets sanctions lifted and RoubleSTRONK.

Rakshasa The Cat
December 17 2014, 05:25:16 PM
My guess on the next steps:

Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin already agreed on a pull out scenario with Russia saving face. The economic ties have shown what people have said before, Russia using weapons and military is a sign of weakness, not strenght. Winter is there, Russia is getting stoneaged.
I believe Putin will be allowed to claim a grand strategic masterplan victory to his brainwashed polulation. Reality will be Donbass reverting back to "independence under ukies" and crimea staying nonrecognized. In return for pulling his goons out of Donbass, putin gets sanctions lifted and RoubleSTRONK.

Nope, at this moment too much money has been sacrificed by not just EU and the US, but also Saudia Arabia, et.al. There's no way they're going for a half-assed promise from Putin to pull out.

I doubt Russia will even be allowed to keep their Crimean naval base after this, as that will be seen as a potential threat to future stability and sovereign integrity of Ukrainian territory. And SA will want Russia out of Syria in exchange for cutting production, so Russia will also come out badly in the middle-east.

Frug
December 27 2014, 09:23:58 PM
I doubt Russia will even be allowed to keep their Crimean naval base after this, as that will be seen as a potential threat to future stability and sovereign integrity of Ukrainian territory.
The idea that Russia would give back Crimea is extremely doubtful. Putin's populace may be brainwashed and ignorant, but there is no conceivable way to spin handing Crimea, with its Russian population and naval base, over to Ukraine when it has basically become a part of Russia at this point. Putin's reputation at home would be ruined, he would be embarrassed and more of a laughing stock. If the Kremlin doesn't like Nato expanding into Ukraine, imagine how it would feel about handing over Crimea. Why would he ever even consider it? Asking that from him is almost as unlikely as asking him to step down.

If the west wants to negotiate an out that he'll actually accept, they won't put that kind of condition on it.

TheManFromDelmonte
December 27 2014, 09:56:05 PM
In what way exactly is he in control if all the people start using Ukrainian currency to do business in? If all the imports and exports get smuggled through ukraine and all the bribes to keep this going are paid in anything but Russian money?

Economic collapse will result in losing crimea. Full economic collapse will mean the military will have to be sacked so they won't even be able to prop things up with them. With the Saudi attitude and the total absence of any export except oil this is really on the cards.

I'm trying to think of a good example of this happening before but I'm drawing a blank. I don't think anyone else with such a precarious economy has so naively invested in their military. Nor had new territory to lose in the crash.

I'm leaving that auto correct error cos I like it. You might not even be able to guess which word it was.

Kai
December 28 2014, 12:45:10 AM
The trouble with that scenario is it presupposes that the West will keep up the pressure beyond the point of no return for Putin, risking Russia going full failed state. I find it more likely that they will ease the pressure off earlier (is. After getting Russia to withdraw from East Ukrain): due largely to the cost to their own economies and that pushing a nuclear armed state over the brink is not good policy.

The aim is to teach Russia a lesson and to assist Ukraine, not to break Russia. To get the Crimea back Russia needs to be broken.

Frug
December 28 2014, 01:11:55 AM
In what way exactly is he in control if all the people start using Ukrainian currency to do business in? If all the imports and exports get smuggled through ukraine and all the bribes to keep this going are paid in anything but Russian money?

Economic collapse will result in losing crimea. Full economic collapse will mean the military will have to be sacked so they won't even be able to prop things up with them. With the Saudi attitude and the total absence of any export except oil this is really on the cards.
You can hypothesize about a total economic collapse if you want. Hell, hypothesize about a revolution. I guess it could happen. So could a war. I doubt any of the these things will, but that wasn't really my point.

Expecting any answer other than "no" and a laugh in your face from Putin (or any Russian politician) over Crimea is naive.

TheManFromDelmonte
December 28 2014, 07:02:25 AM
Right now all the west can do by ending sanctions is increase the speed capital leaves russia. opec could end it if they wanted but they seem intent on lowering the price even more.

Frug
December 30 2014, 02:39:30 PM
Right now all the west can do by ending sanctions is increase the speed capital leaves russia. opec could end it if they wanted but they seem intent on lowering the price even more.

What about the sanctions is actually keeping money inside Russia?

They're making the business climate more difficult and affecting confidence, which reduces investment. I don't think they're helping anything over there.

Sacul
January 7 2015, 06:21:23 AM
In a not so strange twist it seems, according to dutch media, Holland is pushing very hard to get matters in the UKR cleared enough so that commercial aircraft can resume flights over that airspace. Offcourse commercial reasons in flight paths are the major concern aka it costs to much money to divert traffic towards asia.

There are also, in Holland, hearings going on with our various intel organizations. Major question being why was a commercial plane (malasyian MH17 got shot down) allowed to fly over a war zone and why werent there any protocols made for war zones (seems its left to to the company itself if they are EU, rules are very deifferent for USA carriers).

Media is spinning it a bit as a 'this was bound to happen eventually' story. (which imo isnt the case).

QuackBot
January 7 2015, 08:00:14 AM
What about the sanctions is actually keeping money inside Russia?

They're making the business climate more difficult and affecting confidence, which reduces investment. I don't think they're helping anything over there.
I think more people would if it was legal.

FourFiftyFour
June 11 2015, 02:14:42 PM
Is Russia worried about being economically incapable of keeping pace with Chinese military development? I would be if I were them.

Rakshasa The Cat
June 11 2015, 06:57:16 PM
What about the sanctions is actually keeping money inside Russia?

I think that was some kind of attempt at a 'In Soviet Russia, sanctions keep money in Russia'... or something.

QuackBot
June 11 2015, 08:00:36 PM
Are you approving of the way that lesson is being taught? Do you actually think it has a positive effect on Russia's intervention depth in Ukraine?
I don't think you do.

RazoR
July 2 2015, 09:50:14 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI5BZ-BUkAE3q0l.jpg

What about the sanctions is actually keeping money inside Russia?

I think that was some kind of attempt at a 'In Soviet Russia, sanctions keep money in Russia'... or something.People have been warned every now and again, including by Putin in direct form, about possible sanctions in case shit gets real ever since 080808 so yeah.

Neoo Gabriel
July 5 2015, 11:16:22 PM
In a not so strange twist it seems, according to dutch media, Holland is pushing very hard to get matters in the UKR cleared enough so that commercial aircraft can resume flights over that airspace. Offcourse commercial reasons in flight paths are the major concern aka it costs to much money to divert traffic towards asia.

There are also, in Holland, hearings going on with our various intel organizations. Major question being why was a commercial plane (malasyian MH17 got shot down) allowed to fly over a war zone and why werent there any protocols made for war zones (seems its left to to the company itself if they are EU, rules are very deifferent for USA carriers).

Media is spinning it a bit as a 'this was bound to happen eventually' story. (which imo isnt the case).

It's bound to happen, and has happened multiple times in the past, that commercial airplanes flying over conflict areas or dangerous spots get shot down by accident.

The ones off the top of my head was the U.S. Navy shooting down a liner in the Persian Gulf and the USSR a plane bound for Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

In my humble opinion, not only should companies self moderate where they fly their planes, but strict rules and agreements should be made and enforced preventing civilian planes from flying over conflict areas to prevent the greed of such companies to incentivize them into taking such risks. It is not the carrier's fault per se but it's sort of like going for a cruise in the ghetto and being surprised when you experience violence.